Before looking ahead to this year’s Pac-12 Conference betting odds, let’s take a look backward: Last year, four Pac-12 schools reached the regional semifinal round of the NCAA Tournament (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State).
A week later, UCLA came agonizingly close to forcing a second overtime against No. 1 Gonzaga in the Final Four … until Zags guard Jalen Suggs buried a legacy-clinching, game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer.
The Pac-12’s well-timed uprising dominated last year’s NCAA Tournament conversation. The conference shoehorned those four teams into the Sweet 16, even though none possessed a top-five seed. (USC was the highest seed at No. 6.)
This season, expectations in the Pac-12 are markedly different. The conference’s Big Three of UCLA, USC, and Arizona are currently ranked in the Associated Press top 10. That trio also falls within the top 15 of the analytics-centric KenPom rankings. (Although that will soon change following USC’s upset loss at Stanford on Tuesday.)
Does that mean the league’s other eight schools have no shot at the regular-season title? Or, are the “pretenders” better equipped to spring upsets during the NCAA Tournament?
Props.com addresses those questions in our final college basketball conference betting preview that breaks down the Pac-12 Conference title odds.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 11. All SU and ATS records current as of date of publication.
Previous Conference Previews
Big Ten
ACC
SEC
Big East
Big 12
Pac-12 Basketball Odds
The Favorites
UCLA +130 (10-1 SU/5-6 ATS)
Arizona +130 (12-1 SU/8-4-1 ATS)
UCLA or Arizona?
Arizona or UCLA?
This question figures to linger for the rest of the season, as bettors ponder a Pac-12 regular-season winner and the conference tournament champion (not to mention the Final Four participants and eventual national champion).
Just how far the Wildcats and Bruins go remains to be seen. This much is known, though: UCLA and Arizona check all the proverbial boxes of what constitutes a title contender:
— No. 3 UCLA and No. 6 Arizona are a combined 22-2, with high-profile losses to No. 2 Gonzaga and No. 22 Tennessee, respectively.
— Arizona boasts the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (89.9 points per game). The Bruins ranks 24th overall — but second in the Pac-12 — at 80.5 ppg.
— The Wildcats sport the strongest victory margin in the land (they’re crushing opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game). UCLA comes in a respectable 23rd (15 ppg).
— Arizona and UCLA have played the 6th- and 16th-toughest schedules, respectively. As such, both will be in the mix for a No. 1 seed come NCAA Tournament — that is, assuming the keep winning.
The Wildcats and Bruins (along with the rest of the league) have had to deal with several COVID-related postponements that have disrupted the Pac-12 schedule. That said, both are 2-0 in league play. The teams are scheduled to meet Feb. 3 in Tucson, then again in Los Angeles at an undetermined date after a scheduled matchup Dec. 30 was nixed.
The Challenger
USC +500 (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS)
USC was the conference’s only remaining unbeaten team … until this afternoon, when the Trojans dropped a 75-69 decision to Stanford as a 6.5-point road favorite.
That loss is sure to send USC — currently ranked No. 6 — tumbling down both the AP and KenPom rankings. (The Trojans entered Tuesday 15th in the latter, which factors in strength of schedule, strength of opponent, adjusted efficiency margin, adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and points-per-possession over 40 minutes.)
Prior to the Stanford stunner, USC was yielding only 60.8 points per game, which ranked 27th nationally and first among Pac-12 squads. Yet entering Tuesday, the Trojans were more or less an afterthought on both the Final Four and national championship odds boards at DraftKings.
Obviously, one loss does not sink a season, and USC certainly is talented enough to remain in the hunt for the league title the rest of the way. One bit of good news for Andy Enfield’s team: It has three weeks to get back in a groove before finally running into Arizona and UCLA in back-to-back games on Feb. 5 and 12.
The Dark Horses
Oregon +2,500 (9-6 SU/4-11 ATS)
Washington State +3,000 (9-6 SU/7-8 ATS)
Colorado +3,500 (11-3 SU/4-8-2 ATS)
Oregon gets credit for scheduling BYU, Saint Mary’s, Houston, and Baylor during non-conference action. The Ducks also reflexively deserve praise for their current three-game winning streak, knocking off Pepperdine (68-59), Utah (79-66), and Oregon State (78-76). Now we’re about to find out just how dangerous the Ducks will be in the Pac-12 Conference championship race, as they hit the road this weekend to play UCLA (Thursday) and USC (Saturday). If Oregon manages to sweep those contests, its 25-to-1 conference odds will shrink dramatically.
The fact Washington State is in the fifth position in the Pac-12 Conference odds market is a tad baffling. The Cougars, who finished 7-12 in league play a season ago, are off to a 2-2 start in conference. They also have suffered upset losses to Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, and Boise State. Additionally, WSU’s 75th-ranked schedule doesn’t inspire confidence. That said, the Cougars currently rank fourth in the league in scoring (75.9 points per game) and third in scoring defense (64.5 ppg).
Colorado could soon gather sleeper momentum for the regular-season title, as it is off to a 3-1 start in league play (only loss at UCLA). If the Buffaloes can survive an upcoming four-game gauntlet — at Arizona and Arizona State; home versus USC and UCLA — the back end of the schedule features mostly inferior or evenly matched opponents.
The Long Shots
Stanford +8,000 (8-4 SU/5-6-1 ATS)
Utah +8,000 (8-8 SU/5-10-1 ATS)
Arizona State +10,000 (5-8 SU/5-7-1 ATS)
California +12,000 (9-7 SU/12-4 ATS)
Oregon State +12,000 (3-11 SU/4-10 ATS)
Washington +25,000 (6-7 SU/5-8 ATS)
Stanford already knows what it’s like to run up against elite opposition, as it fell to now-No. 1 Baylor (86-48) and No. 21 Texas (60-53) in December. But that can’t compare to the pressure of facing USC (twice), UCLA, and Arizona four times from Jan. 11-29. Will the Cardinal be ready for this challenge after involuntarily taking a 19-day COVID?
Like Stanford, Utah is an 80-to-1 long shot to claim the Pac-12 crown. That’s mostly the result of the Utes, who somehow have avoided the nationwide rash of COVID-related postponements, being off to a league-worst 1-5 start play. Four of the five losses — USC (93-73), Oregon State (88-76), Oregon (79-66), and Washington State (77-61) — were by double digits.
As for uber long shots Arizona State, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington, well we can find one nice thing to say about each squad: Arizona State bounced back from a ghastly 51-29 (not a typo) home loss to Washington State with road victories over Oregon and Creighton; Cal has been a boon for bettors at 12-4 ATS (best in the Pac-12); Oregon State did come within a basket of upsetting arch-rival Oregon on Monday (78-76 home loss); and Washington has already eclipsed last year’s win total (five).
Hey, there’s always next year.
