The Bills are significant favorites at home against the struggling Packers. Even with a likely negative game script, it’s difficult to get excited about Green Bay’s passing attack. Namely, a struggling rookie was invisible in the box score last week and might dud again this week in a brutal matchup. Conversely, one of the Bills’ wideouts is an excellent bet to go over his prop in their pass-happy offense. But another of Buffalo’s wideouts is a good pick to go under his yardage prop.
Bills vs. Packers Player Props: Week 8
Here are the three Bills vs. Packers player props I like for Sunday Night Football.
Romeo Doubs Under 4.5 Receptions
Aaron Rodgers voiced frustration with some of his teammates on the Pat McAfee Show this week, and it’s reasonable to wonder if Romeo Doubs is one of the players he was frustrated with for making mistakes.
#Packers Aaron Rodgers was asked about leadership and critiquing guys in public today. This follows his comments on the Pat McAfee Show Tuesday, about guys making too many mistakes shouldn't be playing.
He says no one has said they had a problem with it pic.twitter.com/dMJyfK5rNp
— Darius Joshua (@DariusJoshuaTV) October 26, 2022
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Doubs has had two drops in the last two weeks and zero receptions on 32 routes last week. The rookie has led the Packers in routes (115) since Week 5, but he’s had only seven receptions for 50 scoreless yards to show for them.
Sadly, Allen Lazard is out this week, but Doubs’ playing time shouldn’t be considered safe. Second-year wideout Amari Rodgers ran 11 routes last week, and fellow rookie Samori Toure ran 12. In addition, this year’s second-round pick, Christian Watson, might be back this week. So, the margin for error is small for Doubs.
Doubs can fall short of his prop for receptions even with his standard allotment of playing time, too. He’s had under 4.5 receptions in five of seven games, including in his past three contests. Finally, the matchup is a nightmare. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are first in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). I’m all over Doubs’ under 4.5 receptions at BetMGM for a rock-solid -165 line since it’s much shorter elsewhere, including -200 at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, it was tempting to bet on his line at FanDuel, where it’s +128 for under 3.5 receptions.
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Where to bet: Romeo Doubs Under 4.5 Receptions | -165 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Gabriel Davis Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Gabriel Davis has been a beast when he’s healthy. The third-year receiver has played three games this season in which he wasn’t on the injury report. Davis had 88, 171, and 74 receiving yards in those games.
Further, 74 receiving yards is his median outcome in five games in 2022, and he averages 76.6 receiving yards per game. Buffalo’s offensive tendencies are a plus for his outlook as well. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills have played at the third-fastest situation-neutral pace.
They also keep their foot on the accelerator, passing early and often, even when leading by a wide margin. According to numberFire, the Bills have passed 188 times versus only 67 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 104 rushes overall in neutral game scripts in 2022. Yet, when leading by at least seven points, they’ve attempted 69 passes and 34 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
As a result, I love Davis’s chances of exceeding 56.5 receiving yards. So, let’s take the over at Caesars Sportsbook, where the odds are the most favorable. Don’t have an account? Check out our Caesars Sportsbook Review to get up to a $1,000 free bet.
Where to bet: Gabriel Davis Over 56.5 Receiving Yards | -109 at Caesars Sportsbook
Isaiah McKenzie Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
Isaiah McKenzie had a forgettable game against the Chiefs before Buffalo’s bye. It’s possible the speedy slot wideout could slip behind intriguing rookie Khalil Shakir in the slot pecking order. Yes, McKenzie ran 26 routes versus only nine for Shakir in Week 6, but it’s not unusual for a rookie to see an increase in playing time as the season marches on, especially after a team’s bye.
Regardless, McKenzie could also find himself squeezed for playing time because of the emergence of fullback/tight end Reggie Gilliam. The versatile h-back ran a season-high 13 routes in Week 6 and awards the Bills an opportunity to use more 12 and 21-personnel (one back and two tight ends or two tight ends and one running back) groupings on offense from now on, leaving Stefon Diggs and Davis as the only receivers on the field.
Moreover, McKenzie has under 29.5 receiving yards in three of five games, including his last two and both games he played with Davis this year when Davis wasn’t on the injury report. McKenzie’s only an ancillary piece in Buffalo’s passing attack when they’re at full strength, and he might have a tenuous grip on his slot role. Thus, I encourage gamblers to join me in taking his under for 29.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Isaiah McKenzie Under 29.5 Receiving Yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Sunday Night Football Bets
Bills vs. Packers Predictions & Bets Bets: Sunday Night Football Picks (Week 8)