We’re going to hunt for the best Week 5 picks for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
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Best Week 5 Picks – NFL Player Props
You can find these best Week 5 picks on multiple platforms, but check out this great boost on Underdog!
Travis Etienne, JAX at KC
- Higher Than 59.5 Rushing Yards
- Longest Rush Higher Than 13.5 Yards
Etienne has turned back the clock to his college days so far this season, displaying a burst that some thought may have been in his rearview mirror after a rookie-season foot injury.
And that’s why he’s one of our best Week 5 picks.
The fifth-year pro is averaging an outstanding 6.1 yards per carry and already has more runs of 20+ yards (three) and 40+ yards (two) than he did in 15 games last season.
The Jaguars’ offensive line is playing a big part, blocking to the fourth-most adjusted line yards per carry (5.05), third-most RB yards per carry (5.5), 10th-most second-level yards per carry (1.35), and fourth-most open-field yards per carry (1.49).
Etienne has also done his part by averaging an above-average 3.4 yards per carry after contact, showing some good drive with his low center of gravity.
Those numbers set Etienne up well against a Chiefs defense that’s been vulnerable to chunk gains on the ground, allowing the fifth-most RB yards per carry (5.18), second-most second-level yards per carry (1.58), and seventh-most open-field yards per carry (1.04) through four games.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at CIN
- Higher Than 76.5 Rushing Yards
- Higher Than 106.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Gibbs is already in mid-season form heading into a favorable Week 5 matchup against the Bengals’ porous defense, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and taking four of his 58 totes for 20+ yards in the first four games.
Additionally, we can almost throw out Week 1, when the Lions had to abandon the run against a Packers defense playing at an elite level.
Since that game, Gibbs has averaged 5.1 yards per carry, and the Lions’ elite offensive line has naturally played a part. Detroit’s horses up front are facilitating the seventh-most RB yards per carry (5.01) and third-most open-field yards per carry (1.64).
The Lions also rank in the top half of the league – 13th – in second-level yards per carry generated (1.30).
In turn, the Bengals’ defensive line is surrendering an NFL-high 5.26 adjusted line yards per carry, along with the ninth-most RB yards per carry (4.7) and second-level yards per carry (1.37).
That’s a bad concoction of metrics with Gibbs on the docket, considering his blockers, speed, and the fact that the third-year star has an excellent 22.4% broken-tackle rate that has allowed him to frequently get into the second level of defenses for big gains.
A final piece of the puzzle here is Gibbs’ elite receiving ability, which has already led to 20 receptions on 21 targets. Cincinnati has surrendered a 20-186-3 receiving line to RBs through four games, putting Gibbs’ rushing + receiving yards prop in play as well.
De’Von Achane, MIA at CAR
- Higher Than 63.5 Rushing Yards
- Higher Than 105.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The Dolphins have a mouthwatering matchup against Carolina, so it’s no surprise one of Miami’s playmakers snuck into our best Week 5 picks.
Our third explosive back this week is Achane, who’s set for an even bigger workload now that Tyreek Hill has been lost for the season with his knee dislocation.
Achane is an RB on the depth chart but essentially a quasi-receiver in Mike McDaniel’s scheme, and that rings truer than ever in the wake of the loss of Hill.
The Dolphins’ offensive line, while not an elite unit by any stretch, has blocked to the 11th-most adjusted line yards per carry (4.38) and 13th-most RB yards per carry (4.50), placing them firmly in the top half of the league in both categories.
Then, they’ve been very good about facilitating some longer runs, generating the fourth-most second-level yards per carry (1.49) with the help of Achane’s outstanding 24.0% broken-tackle rate.
The Panthers’ defensive line makes for a great target, as they rank No. 29 with 5.01 adjusted line yards per carry allowed, and they hold the same slotting in RB yards per carry surrendered (5.43). Carolina has also conceded the fifth-most second-level yards per carry (1.46) and open-field yards per carry (1.27), making this a near-perfect fit for what Achane’s strengths are.
Achane also averages 4.8 receptions, 35.8 receiving yards and 6.3 targets per game, and those numbers have come with Hill sharing the field with him for all but one half. Therefore, the rushing/receiving yards combo prop is also certainly worth considering in this spot.
Seahawks vs Bucs Player Props
Sam Darnold, SEA vs. TB
- Higher Than 224.5 Passing Yards
- Longest Pass Completed Higher Than 35.5 Yards
Any lingering doubts about whether Darnold’s out-of-nowhere 2024 season in Minnesota was a fluke are quickly fading.
The oft-maligned 2018 third overall pick of the Jets has continued to author the successful second chapter of his career early this season in Seattle.
Darnold is actually demonstrating some newfound accuracy while completing a career-high 70% of his throws, and doing so while being more aggressive downfield than ever.
According to NFL Next Gen, Darnold is averaging a career-high 9.1 yards per attempt, and 14 of his 70 completions to date have gone for gains of 20+ yards. His propensity for connecting downfield is further corroborated by the fact that he’s second in the NFL entering Week 5 in completed air yards per attempt (7.9) and fifth in average intended air yards per attempt (9.0).
Darnold is generating those numbers without a true elite speed receiver, although his No. 1 target has been excellent downfield, as we’ll discuss further below.
The Buccaneers’ defense remains one of the league’s toughest to run against this season, surrendering a league-low 216 rushing yards to RBs coming into Week 5, and at a tiny average of 2.9 yards per carry.
While Seattle will undoubtedly try its luck pounding Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet into the line its fair share of times, this shapes up as a likely busy day for Darnold through the air.
The Bucs have allowed an elevated 11.8 yards per completion in their two road games to date, along with recording just one interception overall on the season.
Darnold has passed for 242 and 295 yards in two of his four games and compiled 218 on just 14 completions in the Week 3 laugher against the Saints. He’s also generated at least three completions of 20+ yards in each game, putting the two props listed above in play.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. TB
- Higher Than 77.5 Receiving Yards
- Longest Reception Higher Than 24.5 Yards
JSN rounds out our best Week 5 picks.
Smith-Njigba’s inclusion here dovetails right off Darnold’s entry, as he’s the likeliest beneficiary of any success his QB enjoys through the air.
The 2023 first-round pick is already drawing a massive 50.4% of the Seahawks’ air yards, is averaging a career-high 12.2 yards per target, has a stellar 76.5% catch rate, and has already recorded a career-best three receptions of 40+ yards in his first four games alone.
Smith-Njigba is also averaging a very elevated 4.1 yards per route run, is being targeted on 33.7% of his routes, and has a massive 12.5-yard aDOT (average depth of target), making him a perfect candidate to attack a defense that’s given up some sizable gains through the air on the road as Tampa Bay’s has.
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