If you’re looking for a Bengals vs Steelers prediction and preview, you’re in the right place.
The Steelers roll into Paycor Stadium riding a three-game winning streak with Aaron Rodgers looking surprisingly spry for a 41-year-old in his farewell tour.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are drowning in a four-game losing streak, starting a 40-year-old emergency quarterback they traded for eight days ago, and potentially without their only elite defensive player.
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Bengals vs Steelers Prediction: Thursday Night Football Preview
Let me break this down as simply as possible: Aaron Rodgers threw 4 touchdowns in Week 1 against the Jets—the first time a Steelers QB did that since Big Ben in January 2021.
He’s been efficient, mistake-free, and his quick release time means Pittsburgh’s shaky pass protection (20 sacks allowed) hasn’t derailed anything.
The dude’s playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers, and he’s openly admitted this is probably his last rodeo. That’s dangerous—nothing scarier than a Hall of Famer with nothing left to prove.
On the other side? Joe Flacco, whom the Bengals traded for on Oct. 8th after backup Jake Browning went full disaster mode (0-3 record, 8 picks in 3.5 games, 13 total points in his first two starts).
Flacco made his Bengals debut in Week 6, looked competent enough (219 yards, 2 TDs), but here’s the problem: he’s 40 years old with zero mobility, facing a top-ranked defensive front while playing behind the 32nd-ranked pass protection unit in football.
Trey Hendrickson Injury Status
Trey Hendrickson is Cincinnati’s entire pass rush. The reigning NFL sack leader (17.5 in 2024) left the Packers game with a back injury that head coach Zac Taylor called a “bad contusion.” He didn’t return, and now it’s a short week.
Here’s what you need to know about Hendrickson’s importance: he has 4 sacks through five games. The rest of the Bengals’ defense? Seven. Combined. He had 3.5 sacks against Pittsburgh in Week 18 last season.
Without him, the Bengals have minimal ability to pressure Rodgers, which should open up the playbook.
If Hendrickson can’t go—or even if he’s limited—this spread should be Steelers -7.5 or higher. I’m dead serious. The defensive game plan falls apart completely.
The Biggest Mismatch: Steelers vs Bengals Line Play
T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward comprise the #1-rated defensive front coming into this season. They’re playing behind an elite secondary featuring Jalen Ramsey (three-time All-Pro), Darius Slay (six-time Pro Bowler), and Joey Porter Jr. Although the Pittsburgh pass defense has underperformed so far, there is so much talent on paper.
Cincinnati’s offensive line ranks 32nd in pass block win rate. Dead last. The worst in football. They’ve allowed pressure all season, and now they’re protecting a statue quarterback on three days’ rest.
Will Pittsburgh Win Thursday?
Look, I get it—Pittsburgh is terrible on Thursday Night Football road games under Mike Tomlin. They’re 0-7 in AFC North road games on Thursdays dating back to 1980. That’s a legitimately terrifying stat that should give anyone pause.
But here’s my counter: this Bengals team is fundamentally broken. They’re allowing 31.2 points per game (30th in the NFL), they rank 28th in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve been outscored 140-55 during this four-game losing streak.
The Steelers have a +7 turnover differential (second-best in the league) and generate takeaways at an elite rate.
I find myself drawn to Pittsburgh laying the points. The talent gap is too massive, the matchup dynamics too favorable, and Cincinnati’s injuries too devastating. I’m gravitating toward Steelers -5.5, especially if Hendrickson is ruled out or limited.
It’s early in the week, but my betting lean is: Pittsburgh -5.5.
