Major free agents have found homes, and the NFL Draft is in the rearview. Thus, it’s an excellent time to scope out the sportsbooks. Bettors are encouraged to line shop for the best odds for team futures, such as team wins totals, to-make-playoff bets, division winners, conference winners, the Super Bowl winner, etc.
The AFC North is a division devoid of pushovers. The Bengals have conquered the division in back-to-back years. However, the AFC North has quality teams from top to bottom.
Three teams had a winning record in the division last year, and Cleveland’s 7-10 record in 2022 was the worst for any of the four clubs in the previous two years. As a result of the quality of the clubs in the AFC North, all of them have plus odds to win the division.
Let’s dive into the AFC North Predictions and odds while looking at each team’s outlook below.
AFC North Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bengals | +150 |
| Ravens | +235 |
| Browns | +380 |
| Steelers | +450 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 23.
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Cincinnati Bengals Odds To Win AFC North: (+150)
The Bengals reached the Super Bowl for the 2021 season and fell to the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship last season. However, Cincinnati was a better team in 2022 than in 2021, winning 12 games in 2022 after winning 10 in 2021.
The underlying data and advanced metrics aligned with the Bengals winning more games in 2022, too. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals outscored their opponents by 84 points in 2021 before pushing that mark out to 96 in 2022. In addition, per Football Outsiders, Cincinnati was 17th in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) in 2021 and fifth in 2022. Moreover, Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave them the ninth-highest overall team grade in 2021 and the sixth-highest in 2022.
The Bengals have a talented club, boasting an MVP candidate at quarterback. Joe Burrow validated his breakout in 2021 with another outstanding campaign in 2022. His elite play will put the Bengals in the hunt for the AFC North championship and a Super Bowl run annually.
Baltimore Ravens Odds To Win AFC North: (+235)
The Ravens rebounded from an 8-9 season in 2021 to reach the playoffs and push the Bengals to the brink in the Wild Card Round after going 10-7 in the regular season in 2022. They were the only other club in the division to have a positive point differential last season, scoring 35 more points than their opponents.
Baltimore was also seventh in total DVOA and fifth in PFF’s overall team grade. Their excellent rankings were all the more impressive when considering Lamar Jackson played in only 12 games in 2022.
Unfortunately, while Baltimore deserves credit for persevering through Jackson’s absence for five games in the regular season and the Wild Card Round game, it’s alarming Jackson has played only 24 games in the last two years. Additionally, Jackson’s Quarterback Rating and QBR have been his worst as a full-time starter in the previous two campaigns.
The Ravens aren’t concerned, though. They agreed to a long-term contract extension with the 2019 NFL MVP. They also spent significant resources to improve his weapons, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft.
Yet, the most notable change was moving on from offensive coordinator Greg Roman and replacing him with Todd Monken. The club’s new offensive coordinator was successful from 2020-2022 in that role for the Georgia Bulldogs. He also has experience as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, serving in that gig for the Buccaneers from 2016-2018 and for the Browns in 2019.
Since Roman has a track record of petering out at the end of his stints as the offensive coordinator in previous stops, it’s understandable why the Ravens changed gears. Monken should breathe life into the offense. However, it might also take Jackson time to settle into a new offense while developing chemistry with new pass-catching weapons. Ultimately, the changes can pay off in the long run but could make it difficult for them to hit the ground running.
They’ll need every win they can get to surpass the Bengals. Since there is potential for a slow start while they gel on offense, gamblers who are bullish on Baltimore’s overall outlook might be better served by making a more aggressive bet on the Ravens, such as betting Baltimore to win the Conference or the Super Bowl.
Cleveland Browns Odds To Win AFC North: (+380)
The Browns traded a haul for Deshaun Watson and gave him an unprecedented fully guaranteed contract when they agreed to an extension with him last year. However, Watson had an unceremonious first year on the Browns, playing dreadfully after serving an 11-game suspension.
In fact, Jacoby Brissett significantly outplayed Watson last year. Since Watson also missed the entire 2021 season, it was understandable he was rusty. He’ll presumably play better this year than last. But will he recapture the form from his best days on the Texans? Watson has age on his side since he’ll turn 28 years old in September.
Still, there isn’t much precedent for a top-flight quarterback missing a season and a half without an injury and returning to their prior level of excellence. Michael Vick is arguably the best-case comparison for optimists. Yet, even if he plays well, Watson is likely only the third-best quarterback in a division with Burrow and Jackson. Furthermore, even when Brissett played competently in his 11 starts, the Browns were only 4-7. The Browns should improve this year, but leapfrogging the Ravens and Bengals is unlikely.
Pittsburgh Steelers Odds To Win AFC North: (+450)
Arguably, no head coach squeezes more out of their team than Mike Tomlin. In 16 years as the team’s head coach, the Steelers haven’t had a losing record. However, Pittsburgh won more than nine games only once in the last five years.
And even though it was impressive Tomlin could lead them to a 9-8 record in 2022, the underlying data was mediocre to bad. The Steelers had a negative-38-point differential, ranked 14th in total DVOA, and ranked 19th in PFF’s overall team grade in 2022.
Kenny Pickett gained valuable experience in his rookie campaign after opening the 2022 season as Mitchell Trubisky’s backup and improved his play with more reps. However, he’s leaps and bounds behind Burrow and Jackson. Pittsburgh’s defense will keep them in most games. And they could fend off the Browns and avoid the basement in the AFC North again this year. However, the Steelers aren’t viable contenders to win the AFC North.
AFC North Predictions & Best Bet
The Bengals have a dreamy blend of a top-shelf quarterback, supremely talented offensive weapons, and a stout defense. But the club’s continuity at head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator shouldn’t be overlooked as a critical element for them winning the AFC North for the third straight season.
Frankly, it’s downright shocking a team with a head coaching opening this year didn’t hire Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to fill the vacancy. The Bengals have all the pieces in place to win the division this year.
And even though the odds aren’t long enough to tie up significant resources, a +150 line is attractive for Cincinnati to win the AFC North.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC North | +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions:
