Consistently underachieving. Perpetually disappointing. Inept, pathetic, dysfunctional.
There are many words one could use to encapsulate the history of the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego (er, Los Angeles) Chargers. And not one of them is positive. So why did we choose this as our featured NFL props matchup for Week 13? Several reasons:
- Both teams (as you’ll soon see) are suddenly stocked with young talent
- Both are in the playoff hunt (Bengals are 7-4; Chargers are 6-5)
- This is the only non-primetime game in Week 13 featuring teams with winning records
- And, finally, it gives us an excuse to reminisce about one of the most underappreciated games in NFL history
Nearly four decades ago, the Chargers — a week after beating the Dolphins in overtime in oppressive heat in Miami — traveled to Cincinnati to play the Bengals in the 1981 AFC Championship Game (no, really, this happened). Game-time temperature: minus-9 degrees. Wind chill: minus-59 degrees.
It was, and remains, the coldest game in NFL history — a game that came to be known as The Freezer Bowl, which Cincinnati won 27-10 to clinch their first Super Bowl appearance.
The stakes won’t be as high when these teams meet Sunday. And the weather will feel about 100 degrees warmer than it did on January 10, 1982. But with these franchises seemingly (finally!) on the upswing, it figures to be one of the more entertaining matchups on an otherwise lackluster Week 13 card. And so we present our five favorite NFL prop bets for this Freezer Bowl rematch.
Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET Dec. 3.
Justin Herbert Over/Under 0.5 interceptions
The odds: Over -135/Under +100 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: If you listen carefully, you can hear the masses diving off the Justin Herbert bandwagon. Through five games, the second-year Chargers QB had a 13-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and looked the second coming of Tom Brady. In six games since? That ratio is 11-7, and Herbert has looked like the second coming of Mark Sanchez. Herbert threw at least one pick in five of those six contests, including the last three in a row.
The case for the Under: Cincinnati picked off Ben Roethlisberger twice in last week’s 41-10 rout of the Steelers. And in Week 5, the Bengals thieved Aaron Rodgers once. Both those games were at home. Number of INTs in Cincy’s other three home games: Zero. The QBs they faced in those three games: Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, and Baker Mayfield.
Joe Burrow longest completion Over/Under 36.5 yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -120 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Speaking off sophomore QBs, the Bengals’ young gunslinger eclipsed this prop number seven times in his first eight games. And the only time he didn’t, he came close (long completion of 34 yards in Week 3 at Pittsburgh). In the last two weeks, Roethlisberger (who probably could throw the ball farther with his left hand than his right at this point) and Teddy Bridgewater (who has never been confused with John Elway) completed passes of 37 and 42 yards, respectively, vs. the Chargers.
The case for the Under: So why did the oddsmakers set this prop at 36.5 yards when Burrow beat it in seven of his first eight games? Because he failed to do so in past three outings, posting long completions of 20 yards (Browns), 17 yards (Raiders), and 32 yards (Steelers). Also noteworthy: Only four teams have given up fewer passing yards than the Chargers.
Austin Ekeler Over/Under 13.5 rushing attempts
The odds: Over +100/Under -130 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Chargers’ versatile RB has hovered around this number in all but two games this season. (He had nine carries in Week 2 against Dallas and six totes in a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 6.) Otherwise, Ekeler’s per-game workload on the ground has ranged from 11 to 17 carries.
The case for the Under: While Ekeler has had double-digit carries in five straight games (and nine of 11 overall), he’s had 14 or more just four times (and only once since mid-October and only twice in five road games). It’s difficult to envision that changing this week, considering the Bengals field the NFL’s fifth-best rushing defense. In fact, opponents aren’t bothering to run much on Cincinnati, as only the Buccaneers (226) and Ravens (228) have faced fewer rushing attempts than the Bengals (248).
Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 64.5 receiving yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Bengals’ rookie WR has ungodly talent, as the Packers, Lions, and Ravens are fully aware. During a three-game stretch from Weeks 5-7, Chase torched those three opponents for 159, 97, and 201 receiving yards, respectively. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, Chase might be a better magician than a football player, because …
The case for the Under: … he’s completely disappeared since that breakout performance in Baltimore. In his last four games, Chase has 49 fewer cumulative receiving yards (152) than he did in four quarters against the Ravens. While Chase did haul in all of his targets in last week’s blowout of the Steelers, he was only thrown at three times (and he turned those into just 39 yards). His numbers in the three previous games: 28 total targets (not bad), 12 receptions (not good). Like any talented magician, Chase will reappear at some point. But will it be this week against a Chargers secondary that has allowed more than 251 passing yards twice in 11 games?
Chargers-Bengals Over/Under 10 first-quarter points
The odds: Over +110/Under -130 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Herbert, Burrow, Ekeler, Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams — this game is loaded with explosive playmakers. Which is why the consensus Over/Under (50.5) is tied with Bucs-Falcons for the highest among all Week 13 games. Yeah, but didn’t you start this thing by talking about Ice Age-like weather in Cincinnati? Indeed. But that was 40 years ago. On Sunday, it’ll seem like Maui, with temps in the high 40s/low 50s, minimal winds, and no precipitation in sight.
The case for the Under: This line opened at 9.5 but has jumped to 10. That half-point is significant because the Chargers have played just two games with more than 10 first-quarter points (three others landed right on 10). Meanwhile, Cincinnati has surpassed this prop number in two of its last three contests … after not doing it once in its first eight. Combined, the Chargers (45 points) and the Bengals (44) are averaging 8.1 points in the opening stanza, and they’ve cleared this number just four times in 22 games. First-quarter score when these teams opened the 2020 season against each other in Cincinnati: Bengals 7, Chargers 0.
Week 12 Results
The following are the results from last week’s featured NFL props matchup of Buccaneers vs. Colts:
Carson Wentz Over/Under 1.5 passing TDs (OVER – 3 TDs)
Tom Brady Over/Under 310.5 passing yards (UNDER – 226 yards)
Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 108.5 combined rushing/receiving yards (UNDER – 97 yards)
Leonard Fournette Over/Under 31.5 receiving yards (UNDER – 31 yards)
Ryan Succop Over/Under 1.5 field goals made (UNDER – 1 made FG)
