Week 9 of the NFL season means that the season is almost halfway over. Halfway through the season means that we should have plenty of data to pick on the best spots of the week, but it also means that we could take advantage of new situations popping up across the league. Let’s use that to sort out the best NFL player props of the week.
Justin Fields OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards
Justin Fields had a breakout game on the ground last week, and I think this is truly a sign of things to come, even if some metrics may not suggest that. The Bears’ coaching staff utilized Fields’ rushing ability more than they had previously, and it seemed real, even if there were only 2 called run plays.
One of those run plays was a fake handoff into a run where the unaccounted-for defensive player tries to stop the running back and leaves Fields alone. This is a play Kyler Murray runs all the time with great success, especially around the goal, and it’s just a hint that maybe they are being a bit more creative.
JUSTIN FIELDS MIRACLE TD 🤯
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/i3cv3nWf94
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 31, 2021
The other thing is that Fields was moved much more outside of the pocket, which will allow him to scramble easier, even if it isn’t a “designed run.” I also think that the staff should see that the offense was MUCH better when Fields ran than it had been all season, and it should be an emphasis moving forward. The number is a bit low here simply because Fields can also break off big runs, so we may not need a bunch of attempts either.
Kadarius Toney OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards
This one is pretty simple to me. Toney is too good for this prop when it comes to the tape. Kadarius Toney was a really strange prospect, and he is still a very strange player, but if Toney is going to be on the field 60% of the time, he WILL hit the over here.
According to @JordanRaanan, Sterling Shepard (quad) is expected to miss some time
The last time Kadarius Toney manned the slot in Shepard’s absence, this is what happened 🛫 pic.twitter.com/K97LxCU5Kq
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 3, 2021
After being a sketchy prospect who was an HS QB, Toney had a disastrous training camp that never popped until his last year at Florida. I understood the skepticism surrounding Toney as a prospect, but at this point, the athleticism and shiftiness clearly translate, and as long as he can keep his head on straight, I love Toney moving forward.
Cole Beasley OVER 5.5 Receptions
I love this prop simply because I don’t think it accounts for the new team dynamic without Dawson Knox.
I would wait on this until Knox is OUT, but I do expect that given the matchup this week. Knox was taking some of the Beasley snaps early in the season, but with Knox out, I expect Beasley to continue to be peppered with targets.