These NFL computer picks focus on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
Our season record currently sits at 110-76-1 overall. That’s a solid 59% hit rate for our 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks: Divisional Round
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. There are two picks this week, including notable spreads and totals worth paying attention to:
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders +9.5 | vs. Chiefs | 85% |
| Chiefs-Raiders | Under 52 | 88% |
| Titans +6.5 | vs. Jaguars | 91% |
| Titans-Jaguars | Over 40 | 67% |
| Patriots +7 | at Bills | 100% |
| Patriots-Bills | Over 42.5 | 68% |
| Jets-Dolphins | Over 38.5 | 70% |
| Steelers -2.5 | vs. Browns | 74% |
| Ravens +7 | at Bengals | 94% |
| Texans-Colts | Over 38.5 | 100% |
| Bears +7.5 | vs. Vikings | 85% |
| Panthers-Saints | Over 42 | 79% |
| Bucs +4 | at Falcons | 67% |
| Bucs-Falcons | Over 40.5 | 67% |
| Chargers +2.5 | at Broncos | 65% |
| Chargers-Broncos | Over 40.5 | 97% |
| Giants +14 | at Eagles | 100% |
| Giants-Eagles | Over 43 | 71% |
| Commanders +7 | vs. Cowboys | 79% |
| Cowboys-Commanders | Over 41.5 | 73% |
| Cardinals +14.5 | at 49ers | 97% |
| Cardinals-49ers | Over 40.5 | 70% |
| Rams +6.5 | at Seahawks | 68% |
Insights For NFL Divisional Round
There are two picks for the NFL Divisional Round, January 21-22.
The picks with 80% or higher line value are now 61-47-1 (56%) on the season. These bets made the cut for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
- Giants +7.5 at Eagles
- Giants-Eagles Under 48
NFL Computer Picks Reference
Our NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. The model indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 110-76-1
Spread: 63-36-1
Totals: 47-40
NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles
You can browse previous editions of this article below:
- Week 18: Record 11-10
- Week 17: Record 8-7
- Week 16: Record 1-2
- Week 15: Record 7-6
- Week 14: Record 7-5
- Week 13: Record 5-4
- Week 12: Record 1-2
- Week 11: Record 3-5
- Week 10: Record 5-1
- Week 9: Record 8-3
- Week 8: Record 4-3
- Week 7: Record 2-3
- Week 6: Record 6-3
- Week 5: Record 9-3-1
- Week 4: Record 3-5
- Week 3: Record 16-4
- Week 2: Record 7-6
- Week 1: Record 6-2