Oregon winning at Ohio State (then subsequently — and inexplicably — losing at Stanford). Texas A&M knocking out top-ranked Alabama (one week after losing at home to Mississippi State). Half of the Top 10 being comprised of teams from the Big Ten. Cincinnati ranked No. 3, directly ahead of three college football bluebloods (Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State). Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler going from preseason Heisman Trophy favorite to benched … before Columbus Day.
We’ve seen some bizarro college football seasons in our day, but it’s difficult to recall any as zany as this one — and we’re only at the midpoint.
But, hey, at least things can’t possibly get any crazier, right? Wrong. Check this out as you ponder college football betting trends:
A team that is off to a 6-0 start … that is coming off consecutive wins over Florida (20-13 upset) and LSU (42-21 beatdown) … that is currently ranked No. 11 … that is the only school out of 130 with a 5-0 ATS record against FBS opponents … is a 23-point underdog this week.
We tackle that stunner, and more, in this week’s College Football Point Spread Report.
It’s Raining ’Cats And ’Dawgs … And Money
Will Levis. Chris Rodriguez Jr. Wan’Dale Robinson.
No, those aren’t three people who have never been in your kitchen. Well, OK, maybe they are. But more relevantly, Levis, Rodriguez, and Robinson are (respectively) the starting quarterback, leading rusher, and leading wide receiver for the Kentucky Wildcats. (Don’t beat yourself up — we had to Google that ourselves.)
This week, that trio leads the Wildcats into Athens, Ga., for an SEC battle against newly minted No. 1 Georgia. Like the Bulldogs, Kentucky is undefeated. Unlike the Bulldogs, Kentucky has covered in each of its games against major-college competition. In fact, the Wildcats join Cincinnati (4-0 ATS) as the only teams that still have unblemished point-spread records against FBS foes.
So why are the oddsmakers spotting Kentucky a 23-0 lead before Saturday’s game between The Hedges kicks off? Probably because the Bulldogs have been a spread-covering machine themselves, going 5-1 ATS (the lone slip-up was a 27-point win over South Carolina as a 31.5-point chalk). But more so because since a 10-3 upset of Clemson in the season opener, Georgia has won five consecutive games by the combined tally of 229-30 (nope, not a typo).
By comparison, Kentucky has won its last five games by a margin of 141-95.
While the betting market favored the Wildcats plus the points early in the week, this matchup is quite the conundrum for bettors simply for the fact that Kentucky and Georgia are among just five teams that have five ATS triumphs against FBS competition. The others are fellow SEC rival Arkansas, and Iowa and Michigan from the Big Ten (like Georgia, those squads are 5-1 ATS).
You Rank ’Em, We Cash ’Em
Georgia-Kentucky represents the second time in as many weeks that two ATS powerhouses will square off, as Iowa (then 4-1 ATS) knocked Penn State (then 4-0 ATS) from the unbeaten ranks with a 23-20 victory as a consensus 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.
Those four schools are part of a cluster of high-profile SEC and Big Ten squads that continue to pay dividends for bettors. The 12 SEC and Big Ten teams that are ranked in this week’s Top 25 poll are a combined 48-18-1 ATS in FBS-specific games — good for a 71.6% spread-cover rate.
Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama (3-2 ATS), and Ole Miss (3-2 ATS) highlight the SEC side of things with a combined 21-6 ATS record. That mark essentially mirrors what the five ranked Big Ten schools have done to this point: Iowa, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State (4-1 ATS), and Ohio State (3-2-1 ATS) are collectively 21-6-1 ATS versus fellow FBS opponents. (Worth noting are three head-to-head matchups: Alabama-Ole Miss, Georgia-Arkansas, and Iowa-Penn State.)
Glancing at the entire Top 25 picture, last week’s ranked teams brought home the dough yet again, going 14-8 ATS. That 63.6% spread-cover rate is a tick below the 64.6% season-long rate of this week’s Top 25 squads (84-44-2 ATS).
Buoyed by five Big Ten teams, as well as Georgia and Cincinnati, this week’s top 10 is 35-16-1 ATS on the season (67.3%). And if you take out No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 9 Oregon (combined 2-7 ATS), that spread-cover rate for top-10 squads jumps to 76.7 percent (33-9-1).
ATS Mismatches (On Paper, At Least)
While Kentucky-Georgia is this week’s marquee matchup from a point-spread perspective, two other Week 7 contests are intriguing for a different reason: No. 3 Cincinnati puts its 4-0 ATS mark on the line against Central Florida, while No. 10 Michigan State will try to improve to 5-1 ATS when it visits Indiana. Here’s the intrigue: Central Florida and Indiana (both 0-4 ATS) are among eight teams that have yet to cover a spread.
Now, before you blindly unload the clip on the Bearcats (-21) and Spartans (-4.5), keep this in mind: Last week, 0-4 ATS Akron traveled to 4-0 ATS Bowling Green, and Akron rolled to a 35-20 victory … as a 14-point underdog.
Oh, and because we know you’re wondering, here are the other six schools besides UCF and Indiana that haven’t cashed a ticket in FBS action: Missouri, New Mexico, and Southern Miss (0-5 ATS), along with Clemson, Miami (Fla.), and Kansas (0-4 ATS).
This Was Long ‘Over’due
It only took until the second weekend of October, but ‘Over’ bettors finally got their payday last week — if a few nickels count as a payday. Of the 51 games on the Week 6 betting board, 27 cleared the total while 24 stayed under.
While that marked the first week all season that the Over beat the Under, wagering on totals has been an absolute grind for more than a month. Since Week 0/1, when 34 of 49 FBS-specific games (69.4%) stayed Under, the splits are 128 Overs, 138 Unders, and one push.
That said, one interesting totals trend is still in play, and it involves six schools: Tulsa (5-0 to the Over in FBS action), Pitt (4-0), and Western Kentucky (4-0) are the only teams that have hurdled the total all season. At the opposite end, Purdue and Washington State have stayed low in all five of their games, while Miami (Fla.) is 4-0 to the Under.