Well, we did it. We survived the BradyBelichick Bowl without taking an icepick to either our eyeballs or eardrums. Just think, only four more years until they run it back. We’re sure NBC’s overhype machine is already working overtime. We’re also sure Brady will be there, in uniform, under center. Unless, of course, he decides to run for president (lord knows, he’ll be old enough by then).
Having done our community service last week by including three Buccaneers-Patriots props — shockingly, the Under hit on all three (see below) — we spread the wealth this time around.
We’ve got NFL Prop Bets starring a quartet of young quarterbacks, two uber-talented running backs, a couple of diva wide receivers, and a rookie tight end forced to play in London because Roger Goodell keeps insisting Brits love football. (For the last time, Rog, they love fútbol — it’s not the same thing.)
Let’s get on with it …
Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET Friday
Kyle Pitts Over/Under 60.5 receiving yards (vs. New York Jets in London)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, The SuperBook, and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Falcons’ highly touted rookie tight end is averaging a whopping 12.6 yards per catch, and in Week 2, he torched the Bucs for 73 yards on five catches. Now Pitts faces a Jets pass D that ranks in the middle of the pack in the NFL, allowing 10.5 yards per reception. Falcons’ WR Calvin Ridley will not make the trip for this game, which could push more targets to Pitts.
The case for the Under: Might be time for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan to get his eyes checked, because he apparently can’t spot a 6-foot-6 target who’s chiseled like a Greek god — Ryan and Pitts have only connected 15 times this season. Aside from the Tampa game, Pitts has posted yardage totals of 31, 35, and 50 yards.
Prop Lean: Josh Shepardson loves the over as one of his top Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks for this game.
Joe Burrow Over/Under 36.5 pass attempts (vs. Green Bay)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -118 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The last two quarterbacks to face the Packers — Jimmy Garoppolo and Ben Roethlisberger — each chucked the ball around 40 times. Of course, both had to, because their teams were down multiple scores most of the day. Burrow might be forced to take to the air, too — more so because his top running back (Joe Mixon) hasn’t practiced all week due to an ankle sprain.
The case for the Under: Burrow suffered a horrific knee injury last year, and he’s lucky his right arm didn’t suffer the same fate, as he averaged 40.4 pass attempts in 10 games before departing for the season (he had 36 or more throws in eight of those contests). However, the Bengals have been ultra-conservative with their prized possession in 2021, as Burrow has posted per-game pass-attempt numbers of 27, 30, 18, and 32.
Antonio Brown Over/Under 4.5 receptions (vs. Miami)
The odds: Over -165 / Under +125 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The controversial wideout has played in three of the Buccaneers’ four games, and in two of them, he caught five and seven passes. More impressively, Brown made it through the first month of the season without getting suspended or slapped with a lawsuit (well, as far as we know).
The case for the Under: The Dolphins have allowed just one wide receiver — the Raiders’ Hunter Renfrow — to catch as many as five passes in the last three weeks (and Renfrow landed on exactly five). Then there’s this issue Brown faces each week: He may not get a lot of looks (like in Week 2, when he had one catch on three targets), because he’s one of about 37 weapons that Brady has at his disposal.
Prop Lean: BetPrep expert Brad Feinberg of the Givin’ Props Podcast likes the under here.
New Orleans Saints Over/Under 22.5 Points Scored (at Washington)
The odds: Over -110 / Under -110 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: If you’re into odd/even patterns, you’ll like this: The Saints scored 38 and 28 points in Weeks 1 and 3, but 7 and 21 points in Weeks 2 and 4. And if you’re into leaky defenses, you’ll like this: Since holding the Chargers to 20 points in Week 1, Washington has surrendered 29, 43, and 30 in the last three.
The case for the Under: The total in this game is 43.5 points. That’s noteworthy because there have been 21 games this season with a total of 45 points or less, and the Under cashed in 16 of those contests. Throw in a 50% chance of rain, some wind, and Jameis Winston being way overdue for a four-INT game, and points might be difficult to come by for New Orleans.
Jalen Hurts Over/Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (at Carolina)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, The SuperBook, and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Are we completely sure the Eagles know they won’t get penalized for handing the ball to a running back? Not only is their quarterback their leading rusher by a mile (226 yards, 57 more than anyone else) but his 34 carries are only three fewer than RB Miles Sanders. Hurts’ rushing totals by week: 62, 82, 35, 47.
The case for the Under: The Panthers have allowed just 380 rushing yards in four games. Of course, 235 of those came in last week’s loss to Dallas. And 35 of those were gained by Dak Prescott on just four carries. In case you forgot, Prescott is playing on a surgically repaired leg. Hurts is not.
Derrick Henry Over/Under 114.5 rushing yards (at Jacksonville)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at The SuperBook, DraftKings, and PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: Well, well, well — look who’s leading the NFL in rushing. The same guy who won the rushing title in 2019. And 2020. And who started this season with a 58-yard clunker against Arizona. Since then, Henry has gone off for 182, 113, and 157 yards. Now he gets to face a Jaguars defense yielding a hair under 5 yards per carry this season.
The case for the Under: Henry piled up 235 rushing yards in his second game against Jacksonville (Week 13) last season. Here’s why that’s not good for the Over: Henry hasn’t had back-to-back 100-yard rushing games against the Jags in his career. In fact, in 10 meetings, he’s been held to 92 yards or fewer seven times.
Prop Lean: We have a full article dedicated to breaking down Henry’s rushing prop.
Justin Fields Over/Under 213.5 passing yards (at Las Vegas)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at The SuperBook, DraftKings, and PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: One week is not enough for us to admit we were wrong in predicting the Bears’ rookie would become the latest in a looooong line of Ohio State QBs who flopped in the NFL. But we will admit this much: Fields looked good in Week 3, averaging an eye-popping 12.3 yards per pass attempt. Now he runs up against a defense yielding a league-worst 350 pass yards per contest.
The case for the Under: As sharp as he looked last week, Fields only threw for 209 yards (not 214). And he did it against the Lions, who came into the game yielding an average of 297 passing yards. Oh, and in case you forgot, here were Fields’ passing stats in his first road start two weeks ago: 6-for-20, 68 yards.
Prop Lean: This is a great matchup for the Bears, so we put together a full list of Bears’ Player Props to target – including Justin Fields.
Austin Ekeler Over/Under 97.5 rushing and receiving yards (vs. Cleveland)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: He has the name of a personal-injury attorney — “In a wreck? Call Austin Ekeler and Associates.” Which is ironic given the Chargers’ dual-threat RB personally injures opposing defenses seemingly every week. After totaling 57 yards in the season opener — that would be 57 rushing yards and zero receiving yards on zero targets — Ekeler has posted rushing/receiving combo-platter numbers of 115 yards (vs. Dallas), 107 yards (at Kansas City), and 145 yards (vs. Las Vegas).
The case for the Under: Believe it or not — we barely believe it ourselves, and we looked it up — the Browns have the second-best defense in the NFL, yielding just 250.3 total yards per game. And that number drops to 201.3 if you discount the game against Patrick Mahomes. Given how Ekeler sliced and diced the Raiders on Monday night, you have to think the first words uttered in the Browns’ initial defensive meeting this week were: “We ain’t letting that dude beat us.”
Odell Beckham Over/Under 56.5 receiving yards (at L.A. Chargers)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, The SuperBook, and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Tough day at the office for the Browns WR last week, as he was held to two catches for 27 yards at Minnesota after going for five catches and 77 yards in his season debut against the Bears. But here’s the thing about Beckham: He rarely has back-to-back stinkers. In 24 games he’s started and finished since arriving in Cleveland, Beckham has failed to eclipse 56 receiving yards in consecutive weeks just twice: Weeks 4-5 and Weeks 12-13 in 2019.
The case for the Under: The Chargers’ defense ranks fifth in the NFL against the pass (192.5 ypg allowed). And two of the four teams they’ve faced rank in the top five in passing offense (Raiders, 2nd; Chiefs, 5th). Sure, the Bolts have allowed at least one player to go for 56-plus receiving yards in every game. Might happen again Sunday. But are you sure it’ll be Beckham?
Prop Lean: Beckham was featured in the Top Three Player Props article this week, and you can get a much better number on him now.
Josh Allen Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (at Kansas City)
The odds: Over -110/Under -120 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The answer is: 157 and 2. The question: How many passes and interceptions has the Bills QB thrown this season? Not bad. This is better: Since Week 12 of the 2020 season — a stretch of 12 games that includes the playoffs — Allen has been thieved just six times in 461 passes. And he hasn’t once been picked in consecutive games during this span (Allen threw one last week in Buffalo’s initial offensive drive against Houston).
The case for the Under: One of Allen’s six INTs came at Arrowhead Stadium in last year’s AFC title game. And if you believe in the “due theory,” the Chiefs — who picked Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson a combined three times in the first two weeks — failed to notch an INT the last two weeks against Justin Herbert and Hurts.
Last Week’s Results:
Josh Allen Over/Under 279.5 passing yards (UNDER – 248 yards)
Allen Robinson Over/Under 50.5 receiving yards (OVER – 63 yards)
Nick Chubb Over/Under 77.5 rushing yards (OVER – 100 yards)
Derrick Henry Over/Under 0.5 rushing TDs (OVER – 1 TD)
Miles Sanders Over/Under 59.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 13 yards)
Davante Adams Over/Under 7.5 receptions (UNDER – 6 receptions)
Tom Brady Over/Under 2.5 TD passes (UNDER – 0 TDs)
Tom Brady Over/Under 0.5 INTs (UNDER – 0 INTs)
T.B. Buccaneers Over/Under 29.5 total points (UNDER – 17 points)
Keenan Allen longest reception Over/Under 23.5 yards (UNDER – 9 yards)
