Here we go with our top Sunday Night Football prop bets for this Week 1 matchup between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers.
The following Cowboys vs. Buccaneers player props are split into two sections: yardage player props and touchdown bets.
Let’s dive into the analysis!
Sunday Night Football Player Props: Week 1
Josh Shepardson runs through his favorite Sunday Night Football player props for the Cowboys vs. Bucs:
Ezekiel Elliott Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
There are a few reasons I love pounding Zeke’s under for rushing yards. First, Dallas’s offensive line woes that I highlighted above are suboptimal for him gaining yards on the ground against Tampa Bay’s stout run defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs were 12th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but the raw numbers were even more impressive. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Tampa Bay allowed the fewest rushing yards (1,083) to running backs in 2021.
Second, the Cowboys were smart last year, attempting only 14 runs against the Bucs’ stingy run defense. Elliott toted the rock 11 times for 33 yards.
Second, I expect the Buccaneers to win. So, if the Cowboys are in a negative game script, they’ll probably have to pass the ball to play catch-up. Additionally, Zeke had only 58.9 rushing yards per game last year, the lowest mark of his career, one year removed from rushing for a then career-low 65.3 yards per game. His apologists and the Cowboys will handwave away his mediocrity as a product of playing through a knee injury. Still, Zeke has been ridden hard in his career, and his efficiency and production have been sliding for multiple years. So, let’s hop on the under.
Where To Bet: Ezekiel Elliott Under 46.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Tony Pollard Over 2.5 Receptions (+100)
The Cowboys’ depleted pass-catching corps might be a boon for Pollard’s role in their offense. Michael Gehlken of The Dallas Morning News reported in August that the Cowboys’ quality control coach Kyle Valero was working with Pollard on the slot position. Any reps aligned at wide receiver could allow Pollard to fly past his total.
Still, even if he’s merely deployed as a change-of-pace back, he has an excellent matchup for hitting his over. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Buccaneers allowed the second-most receptions (117) to running backs in 2021. The pace will also be dreamy. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys played at the fastest situation-neutral pace in 2021, and the Bucs were the second-fastest. Finally, Pollard had more than 2.5 receptions in eight of 16 games, including hauling his four targets in the season opener against the Bucs. He also had a median outcome of 2.5 receptions. So, even a slight uptick in use in the passing game would nudge him over his total.
Where To Bet: Tony Pollard Over 2.5 Receptions | +100 at BetMGM
Sunday Night Football TD Props: Week 1
Matt LaMarca takes a look at some intriguing touchdown props for the Cowboys vs. Buccaneers:
Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate – First TD (+1800)
The Bucs have plenty of holes to fill on opening night. Chris Godwin could be on a snap count if he plays, but he is listed as a gametime decision. Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard will no longer wear a Tampa Bay uniform on Sundays.
As a result, Brate will take on a larger role in the upcoming season. That could start in this Sunday Night Matchup at Dallas. Brate played only 462 snaps last season, and he only had a 7.62% target share.
Tom Brady only played one drive in the preseason. Brate saw two targets from the veteran signal-caller, catching both of those passes. While Brate isn’t going to command a ton of targets in this game, he should have a role near the goal-line. Remember, Brate caught four touchdowns in somewhat limited snaps last season, and he has been a proven touchdown option throughout his career.
It’s worth a look to select Brate as the first touchdown scorer for juicy +1800 odds at FanDuel.
The Pick: Cameron Brate – First TD Scorer | +1800 at FanDuel
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott – Anytime TD (+105)
This could be Elliott’s final year with the Cowboys. Some would argue that Tony Pollard is the superior player at this point – he averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season compared to 4.2 for Zeke – but there’s at least one important person in Dallas who doesn’t agree. Jerry Jones reiterated this offseason that Elliott needs to be the focus in the run game, and Jerry gets what Jerry wants.
Even with Pollard cutting into his workload last year, Elliott was one of the busiest backs in the league near the goal line. His 50 touches inside the red zone was tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league, and he had 14 carries from inside the five. Pollard had just four carries from inside the five-yard line, so Zeke remains the preferred finisher.
Overall, Elliott finished with 12 touchdowns in 17 games last year, so he’s as good a bet to score as anyone in football. He’s available at better than even money at PointsBet, which is a bargain.
The Pick: Ezekiel Elliott – Anytime TD Scorer | +105 at PointsBet
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