It’s Kamaru Usman fight week. Nine months after breaking his hand in a classic slugfest with Colby Covington, the UFC Welterweight Champion will headline UFC 278 in Salt Lake City, Utah against Leon Edwards. It’s refreshing to see the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world fight someone other than Colby Covington or Jorge Masvidal, even if Usman handily defeated Edwards back in 2015.
The co-main event between newly minted “meme-lord” Paulo Costa and the veteran Luke Rockhold will be a great fight for the fans. As a bettor, I’m excited for the third to final bout pitting the legendary Jose Aldo against rising star Merab Dvalishvili. We’ll dive into those matchups, parlays, and best bets in the UFC 278 predictions below.
UFC 278 Predictions: Betting Selection
In a sport as wild as fighting, I try to find an edge by using a predictive model that considers previous striking and grappling ratios plus average octagon time from official ufcstats.com data. Below I’ll offer my UFC 278 predictions for the featured fights, but the model really shines in predicting a fight’s final numbers.
Further down the article, I’ll share a way to bet on those projections through same game parlays (SGPs) — playable on DraftKings in states where available.
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Kamaru Usman (20-1) vs. Leon Edwards (19-3)
Kamaru Usman should feel at home, as this fight will take place just a one-hour flight from his training home of Denver, Colorado. In addition to the short distance, Salt Lake City’s roughly 4000-foot elevation will create a comfortable work environment for the champ while adding to the stack of cards against the Jamaican-born challenger who fights out of England.
Usman dominated the first bout between these 170-pounders with the style that carried him to the title: smothering wrestling and relentless clinch and ground strikes. Since he took the welterweight belt five title defenses ago, the 35-year-old has perfected his boxing to become an even scarier opponent.
Leon Edwards is a well-rounded mixed martial artist, but his standout kickboxing offers the best path to victory. Cardio would play a huge role regardless of the elevation, as Edwards will have to move around very well for five rounds to keep the fight at distance and be able to strike.
Now 30 years old, Edwards is a very talented and experienced fighter with 11 wins and just two losses in the promotion including the one defeat to Usman. “The Nigerian Nightmare” has proven time and time again that he’s in a different world when it comes to UFC Welterweights. I see him dialing it back and using his wrestling to leave no chance for Edwards to walk away with his belt. Look for Usman to land a lot of clinch and ground strikes and end the fight late by TKO through an accumulation of damage on Edwards, or for a tired and bloodied Edwards to lose by decision.
Prediction: Usman moneyline looks plenty safe at -360, but I’ll dive into the projected numbers and reveal how to get more value backing Usman with a parlay later in this article.
Jose Aldo (31-7) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (14-4)
Somehow Jose Aldo is only 35 while also being known as one of the UFC’s OG’s. The Brazilian had a dominant run as UFC Featherweight Champion until Conor McGregor came along. He has now found a home in the 135-pound bantamweight division, riding a three-fight win streak with eyes on a title shot.
Georgian Merab Dvalishvili also has eyes on the title, winning his last seven fights. However, that came against overall lesser competition than Aldo has faced. Dvalishvili truly is a machine. His unbeatable cardio allows him to hammer creative strikes and record-setting takedowns throughout the entire fight. At 31, Dvalishvili already holds the record for most takedowns landed all-time in the bantamweight division.
Conventional wisdom says Dvalishvili is going to pursue takedowns against a powerful striker like Aldo. However, Aldo is extremely strong and a sneaky elite grappler himself. He has defended 90% of takedowns attempted against him in his UFC career, and he gets right back up when opponents do manage to put him on the canvas. Aldo stays defensive in the stand-up game as well, keeping his hands high to block shots in an effort to time a perfect knockout punch.
I predict Merab’s Long Island coaches will want him to lean on his cardio, staying highly mobile while peppering strikes from the outside. Dvalishvili will likely mix in at least one takedown with the goal of opening up Aldo’s striking defense. I can definitely see Aldo landing a high-impact strike at some point, but both guys are extremely tough and unlikely to be put away in just the three rounds this bout is scheduled for.
Prediction: The book agrees it will be a close fight, with Aldo’s moneyline at +110 and Merab at -130. In this three-round fight, I would bet Dvalishvili to sneak away with the decision. However, for those that can bet on a same game parlay, look below to see how we can get similar odds without relying on the judges’ scorecards.
UFC 278 Parlays
Now let’s transition to how the projections shake out for some UFC 278 picks and parlays from the aforementioned fights.
Usman vs. Edwards Picks & Parlay
- Leg 1: Total Seconds: Over 599.5 (-400)
- Leg 2: Most Takedowns: Kamaru Usman (-290)
- Leg 3: Moneyline: Kamaru Usman (-425)
Parlay Odds: -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The model projects the fight to make it into the late fourth round, with 55.8 strikes landing for Usman and 47.6 for Edwards. The reason for the low strike count is a lot of projected grappling from Usman — to the tune of 3.3 takedowns and 9:36 of control time.
With the champ being such a knockout threat these days, we want to be cautious. Over 599.5 seconds means the fight goes at least two full rounds, and just one takedown would almost certainly win the “most takedowns” leg with no projected grappling offense from Edwards. It’s important to note that nobody has ever secured a takedown against Kamaru Usman in the UFC.
Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Picks & Parlay
- Leg 1: Total Seconds: Over 599.5 (-310)
- Leg 2: Most Sig. Strikes: Merab Dvalishvili (-280)
Parlay Odds: -135 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This fight is projected to go 2.3 rounds, with Aldo landing 42.5 strikes and Dvalishvili tallying 60.3. The model projects Dvalishvili to land 3.5 takedowns but with only 1:22 of control time, suggesting his wrestling is not going to be very effective on Aldo. Couple that with the lack of significant added value from betting on Merab takedowns, and it is best left out of our parlay.
The nature of how significant strikes are counted makes this bet favorable to Dvalishvili moneyline at almost identical odds. All strikes landed at distance are considered significant, even if they are blocked. It has great potential to hit with Dvalishvili’s high output and Aldo’s propensity to stand still and block strikes.
Remember To Claim Your $200 In Free Bets!
Strike now! DraftKings is running an exclusive offer for UFC 278.
Simply bet $5+ on any UFC 278 fighter to win and get $200 in free bets instantly. No matter if your selection wins or loses.
To grapple this special offer, click our exclusive link here.
