There have been plenty of formats to decide the college football National Champion in years past, but the current system is clearly the best. Is it quite as much fun as the 68-team NCAA basketball bracket? Of course not. But the four-team football playoff is definitely an improvement over the BCS days.
Even more fun? You can actually bet on which teams will earn a spot in the college football playoffs. Historically, the easiest way to qualify for the postseason has been winning your conference. The SEC champion has made the postseason all eight seasons. The ACC champ has made the postseason seven times while the Big 10 champ has made the postseason six times. The Big 12 and Pac-12 are also well represented, while only one non-Power Five school has earned a bid (Cincinnati last year).
Let’s dive into some of my favorite college football playoffs 2022 predictions, as I’ll be looking at the betting value of these schools to earn a bid in the 2022-23 postseason.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 4.
College Football Playoffs 2022 Predictions: The Locks
Two programs are head and shoulders above the competition this year: Alabama and Ohio State.
You’re going to have to lay significant juice to bet on either squad: Alabama is -240 and Ohio State is -255. But both schools seem like very safe selections.
Alabama To Make CFB Playoffs (-240)
Last year was supposed to be a “rebuild” for Alabama, but they still won the SEC and made it to the National Championship. QB Bryce Young led the way, racking up a ridiculous 4,872 passing yards and 47 touchdowns. To nobody’s surprise, he was rewarded with the Heisman Trophy, but he’s not favored to win it this time around (see the full Heisman Trophy odds tracker here).
Young will have to lean on a new group of pass catchers, but Alabama never seems to have problems finding talent at receiver. Bama had two receivers drafted in the first round in 2021, but Jameson Williams had no problems filling the void last time around. With Williams getting drafted by the Lions, someone will likely step up to fill his void this fall.
Defensively, Bama should be a juggernaut. Will Anderson Jr. might be the best defensive player in college football, racking up 17.5 sacks and 34.5 tackles for a loss last year. Dallas Turner also had 8.5 sacks while Chris Braswell should take on a larger role in his second full season.
Alabama has made the playoffs in seven of the past eight years. Ultimately, there’s no reason to expect anything different in 2022-23.
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Ohio State To Make CFB Playoffs (-255)
Ohio State might not be as talented as Alabama, but it’s pretty darn close. They return an elite quarterback of their own in C.J. Stroud, who racked up 4,435 passing yards and 44 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. He’s currently the preseason favorite in our Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker. Stroud averaged a stout 11.4 adjusted yards per attempt in 2021, which was the second-best mark among qualified passers.
Like Young, Stroud will have to lean on a new-look group of pass-catchers this season, but Ohio State has more than enough talent to make a seamless transition. Stroud will still have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who racked up an absurd 15 catches for 347 yards and three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl last year. Playstation numbers.
- Related: Are the Buckeyes a sure-fire bet to win the conference? Spencer Limbach breaks it down in our Big Ten Football Predictions.
Ohio State also benefits from playing in the Big Ten, which is a far easier conference than the SEC. They will have to navigate Michigan in the East Division – No. 6 in ESPN’s preseason FPI – but an undefeated season is well within the cards for the Buckeyes.
The Bottom Line
Overall, both of these squads seem undervalued currently. Alabama’s -240 odds translate to a 70.6% implied probability, while -255 translates to 71.8%. I’d put the odds of these squads making the playoffs at closer to 80%, so we’re getting a good bit of value.
College Football Playoffs 2022 Predictions: Sleepers
I’m eating the chalk with two of my selections, but we can get a bit creative with some of our other picks. Clemson (+155) and USC (+400) are priced like clear favorites to win the ACC and Pac-12, but I don’t agree with that assessment. They’re probably the best teams in those conferences on paper, but they’re not nearly as assured of a playoff berth.
NC State To Make CFB Playoffs (+1400)
In the ACC, NC State is presenting a solid value at +1400. I wrote about why they could win the ACC in my conference preview, but basically, they return one of the most underrated passers in college football: QB Devin Leary. All he did as a redshirt sophomore was rack up 35 touchdown passes against five interceptions while leading the Wolfpack to a 9-3 record. Their matchup vs. Clemson will be key, but if they can win that contest, NC State has a legit chance to win the ACC. If that can do that with one loss or fewer, that puts them on track for a playoff spot.
Oregon To Make CFB Playoffs (+1200)
Meanwhile, USC could be the most overvalued team in college football at the moment. They did make a massive coaching upgrade in Lincoln Riley, and USC does typically lure plenty of top recruits to Los Angeles. But can Riley turn things around overnight? Consider me skeptical.
I’d rather take a shot on the Oregon Ducks, who are +1200 to make the playoffs. They’re another team with a new coach, luring Dan Lanning away from Georgia following their championship last year. He served as coordinator for one of the most dominant defenses in recent memory, and he’ll have plenty of talent to work with in Eugene.
The only real question is at quarterback, but the Ducks have plenty of potential solutions. Bo Nix transferred from Auburn, while Ty Thompson is a former five-star recruit. If one of those two players can provide some stability at the position, Oregon has a chance to compete for the conference crown. From here, they could backdoor their way into a playoff spot.
Texas A&M To Make CFB Playoffs (+700)
Finally, if you’re going to look for an at-large team to make the playoffs, you’re best off searching through the SEC. They routinely get two teams into the postseason, including last year.
From a pure talent perspective, Texas A&M should be as good as anyone. They landed the No. 1 recruiting class in 2022, featuring a ridiculous eight (!) five-star freshmen. To put that in perspective, Alabama – who finished with the No. 2 recruiting class – had just three five-star freshmen. The Aggies also had top-eight recruiting classes in each of the past three years, so there is more than enough talent in the program to compete.
The only reason Texas A&M doesn’t have better odds – they’re currently available at +700 – is that they share the same division as Alabama. However, they managed to upset Alabama last year, and they could still possibly make the postseason even with a loss. If they win the rest of their games and Alabama runs the table, it wouldn’t be shocking to see both squads earn a playoff berth.
I’m fine with rolling the dice on the Aggies at +700.
