The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, July 1
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants | 10:15 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.48 ERA indicates
Cobb has struggled for most of the 2022 season. He enters this game with a 3-3 record and 5.48 ERA through 10 starts. He also owns a 2.70 xFIP and .378 BABIP, suggesting he’s gotten extremely unlucky thus far.
Even though Cobb has recorded a sub-3 xFIP in 7 of his 10 starts in 2022, he’s posted an ERA below 3.00 in only one start. He’s also recorded an xFIP under 2.00 in a trio of starts, which is elite. He allowed eight runs (7 earned runs) in those starts.
Cobb gets a solid matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who are struggling offensively right now. They also boast a right-handed heavy offense, and Cobb owns elite numbers against righties.
Bottom Line: Cobb is due for a ton of positive regression, and everything points toward him dominating Chicago in this game tonight.
Lance Lynn: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants | 10:15 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.19 ERA and 23.3% strikeout rate suggests
Before we break anything down here, it’s important to note that Lynn has very limited innings this season, meaning there is more volatility in his numbers.
Still, his 6.19 ERA sits well above his 3.33 ERA. He’s a pitcher who’s beaten regression in each of the last three seasons as well, suggesting he’ll see roughly 3 earned runs worth of positive regression within his next few starts.
Lynn also owns a 23.3% strikeout rate, which is his lowest since 2018. The biggest key with this is that he also boasts career-high 15.2% swinging-strike and 28% CSW rates. Either those rates are going to dip or his strikeout rate is going to increase, and I lean toward the latter.
Bottom Line: Lynn gets a reasonable matchup against San Francisco tonight, and I expect him to find success in terms of ERA and strikeouts in this game.
Roansy Contreras: Pittsburgh Pirates
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.76 ERA suggests
I like Contreras as a young pitcher, but he isn’t throwing as well as his 2.76 ERA suggests through 10 games (7 starts). He’s posted a 4.27 xFIP through 42.1 innings. There was nothing to suggest that his ERA wouldn’t sit at 4.00 or higher when you look into his minor league numbers as well.
Contreras has been fading badly in recent starts as well. Although he’s only allowed 5 earned runs over his last 3 starts, he’s recorded 6.01, 5.20, and 7.36 xFIPs in those games. It’s only a matter of time before Contreras gets rocked for 5+ runs in a game.
He gets a tougher matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. The Brewers own a league-high .359 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and this is an elite matchup for them.
Bottom Line: Contreras has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the MLB in recent starts, and that could all come crashing down tonight.
