Let’s take a look at this Justin Fields prop of 40.5 rushing yards, as the rookie QB is getting his first NFL start this week in Cleveland vs. the Browns’ great defensive talent.
That means that his props this week should be very interesting, and I wanted to touch on his rushing prop, currently set at 40.5 rushing yards in this game. I love the over on this number, and here is why.
Raw Rushing Attempts
Justin Fields at Ohio State ran for about 40 yards per game, but that really doesn’t tell much of the story. Fields was asked not to run in most games/scenarios simply because they didn’t need him to. Why expose your star QB to hits that he did not need to take?
Well, this is the NFL, and the Bears are 7.5 point underdogs in this matchup. It’s not time to put Justin in bubble wrap and tell him to avoid scrambling when necessary. More importantly, we have seen that both Fields and the Bears want him to scramble and make plays outside of the pocket. In just under 140 snaps or what would equate to two NFL games, Fields has ran 23 times in the preseason for 121 yards and a touchdown.
This was mostly in the preseason and last week, where there were more or less no runs designed for him to run. While they did run the zone read a few times, we haven’t seen any QB power or QB draw, two plays I expect to see implemented over time. Now with a week to prepare against a great defense, I think we will see a few designed runs as well.
The Situation
The Bears need every win they can get, and this is a very tough spot vs. a Cleveland team that many expect to be a top-five team in the NFL this season. One strength of the Browns team is their pass rush, headlined by Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney.
The Bears’ weakness on offense is their offensive line, and while they have held up over the first few weeks, I think we could see Justin get forced out of the pocket a whole lot in this game, and I think that the Bears should support this.
We should see Fields moved around a lot more by the Bears’ playcalling, and this will create easy chances for Fields to pick up easy yardage in the rollout game by running upheld if the defenders stay home on the receiver.
Here’s the final verdict of this Justin Fields prop: roll with the over, and don’t think twice about it.
