The Southeastern Conference’s grip on college football has never been greater.
SEC teams have won the last three national championships and four of the past five. Furthermore, SEC teams are 14-5 all time in College Football Playoff games — and two of those losses came at the hands of another SEC foe. That includes Georgia’s victory over Alabama in the 2021-22 title game.
If you believe what you see in the SEC win totals market for 2022, this season probably won’t be a lot different. WynnBet is one of the first sportsbooks to post college football win total odds for the 2022 campaign, and the book set the Over/Under number for both Georgia and Alabama as high as it possibly could: 11.5.
Considering each team plays 12 regular season games, the handicap is simple for SEC win totals bettors: Do you think the Bulldogs and/or Crimson Tide will go undefeated?
Matt Lindeman, WynnBet’s senior lead trader, talked to Props.com about how the book established its win-total numbers for the upcoming college football season.
2022 SEC College Football Win Totals
| Team | Win Total | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 11.5 | Over +210/Under -240 |
| Georgia | 11.5 | Over +210/Under -240 |
| Texas A&M | 9 | Over -135/Under +120 |
| Tennessee | 8.5 | Over +115/Under -125 |
| Kentucky | 8 | Over -105/Under -105 |
| Mississippi | 8 | Over -105/Under -105 |
| Florida | 7 | Over -110/Under +100 |
| Arkansas | 7 | Over -105/Under -105 |
| Mississippi State | 6.5 | Over -105/Under -105 |
| LSU | 6 | Over -135/Under +120 |
| South Carolina | 6 | Over -135/Under +120 |
| Auburn | 5.5 | Over -105/Under -105 |
| Missouri | 5 | Over +105/Under -115 |
| Vanderbilt | 2 | Over -110/Under +100 |
Odds via WynnBet as of 5:30 p.m. ET on May 27.
No Dogs In This Fight
Lindeman has a simple explanation for why the win totals for Georgia and Alabama are through the roof: Both squads will be favored in every game — and not just by a little.
“Alabama isn’t going to even be a single-digit favorite in any game,” he said.
On paper, the Crimson Tide have some seemingly tricky hurdles to navigate in 2022. They take trips to Texas, Tennessee and Mississippi, while hosting Texas A&M (the only team to defeat Nick Saban’s squad last year prior to the national title tilt). Some stiff competition, right? Not according to Lindeman, who said Alabama still should be favored by at least 10 points in each contest.
Of course, just because a team is favored in every game doesn’t mean it will win every game. That’s why the Alabama and Georgia win totals are juiced toward the Under at -240 (Over +210). All it takes is one slip-up to cash an Under win-total ticket.
Lindeman said he believes that slip-up is more likely to happen to defending national champion Georgia. The Bulldogs face a tough four-game stretch starting in late October. It begins against rival Florida on a neutral field in Jacksonville, followed by a home game against Tennessee, and visits to Mississippi State and Kentucky.
“All four could be challenging,” Lindeman said. “Mississippi State and Kentucky both look tough.”
Aggies on Outside Looking In
Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher recently provided a tremendous week of college football chatter after he responded harshly to Saban’s claim that the Aggies “bought every player on their team.” Fisher called Saban’s comments “despicable,” adding that “some people think they’re God.” Keep in mind: Fisher used to work for Saban.
So yeah, the October 8 Texas A&M-Alabama clash in Tuscaloosa figures to be a doozy — well, for the media, at least. On the field, Fisher’s Aggies remain a step or two behind Alabama and Georgia in the SEC win totals hierarchy. WynnBet has A&M set at 9 wins (Over -135).
“They’re kind of solidified as the second tier behind Alabama and Georgia,” Lindeman said of the Aggies. “They’re not quite good enough to get through the rest of the SEC unscathed.”
In addition to the Oct. 8 visit to Tuscaloosa, Texas A&M also travels to Mississippi State, plays Arkansas on a neutral field, and hosts Miami (Fla.), Mississippi and Florida.
“I don’t know if they have the quarterback play to hold up,” Lindeman said. “And they don’t have the horses to win at Alabama.”
Best of the Rest
Mississippi State could be primed for a breakout season under third-year coach Mike Leach, whose complex offensive system often takes players some time to learn. The Bulldogs went 7-6 last season.
“Leach is a tough coach when you’re going through a transition,” Lindeman said. “Now that he’s settled in, Mississippi State could make a jump.”
With the Bulldogs set to face a tough schedule that includes Alabama and Georgia, WynnBet pegged Mississippi State at 6.5 on its SEC win totals board.
Kentucky (win total 8) and Tennessee (8.5 Under -125) “are about as good as they’ve been in the last 10 to 15 years,” Lindeman said.
Conversely, traditional SEC powerhouses LSU (6 Over -135) and Auburn (5.5) are big question marks. The reason: Lots of player turnover in each program, Lindeman said.
SEC Win Totals Action
The only movement on SEC win totals at WynnBet involved Arkansas and Vanderbilt. The former bumped from 6.5 to 7, while the latter shifted from 1.5 to 2. Lindeman said his book also took a big wager on Alabama Over 11.5 at +210.
Looking to get in on the college football win total action? WynnBet is offering reduced juice, including -105 on both sides for several teams.
“We’re trying to entice some action by using a lower margin,” Lindeman said.