You’re in the right place for Week 13 Steelers-Bills props and predictions. We’ll try to locate Steelers vs Bills props that offer the most value. This Week 13 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills is a big one, and our analyst Matt LaMarca is here to find us the best Sunday props and player predictions.
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Week 13 Predictions: Steelers-Bills Player Props
It’s a great 4 p.m. window on Sunday, and this headliner won’t disappoint. The Bills are right around three-point favorites on the road in Pittsburgh.
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Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards – Higher Than 18.5
The Steelers and Bills will square off in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon in an important contest for both squads. The Bills are looking to hold on to one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC – they’re currently tied with the Jaguars and Chargers at 7-4 – while the Steelers are trying desperately to maintain their lead in the AFC North. The Ravens losing on Thanksgiving gave Pittsburgh a 0.5-game cushion, but a loss to the Bills would drop them behind the Ravens once again.
The Steelers’ offense has been an average unit for most of the season. They rank 10th in the league in points per game, but they’re merely 27th in yards. In terms of EPA per play, they check in right near the middle of the pack (15th).
That stems primarily from their quarterback play. Aaron Rodgers is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime, and he’s simply looking to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. No player has had a quicker average time to pass this season, and no QB has averaged fewer intended air yards per attempt.
That has led to a nice season for Gainwell as a pass-catcher. Despite technically being the No. 2 back in Pittsburgh, Gainwell has the fifth-highest target share at running back in the league (15%). He’s been particularly active in that department of late. He’s racked up 14 total targets over his past two contests, and he’s had a target share of at least 21% in both games.
Gainwell has responded with at least 30 receiving yards in both outings, and there’s no reason to expect much different vs. the Bills. The Bills have struggled against running backs all season, and while most of that has come while defending the run, short passes to Gainwell are essentially just an extension of the run game.
Where to play: Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards – Higher Than 18.5 | Underdog
Josh Allen Rushing Yards – Higher Than 28.5
Allen continues to have to do everything for Buffalo. He is Superman, while the rest of the offense is full of Clark Kents. Things have been even worse in that department recently. Dalton Kincaid has been out of the lineup with a hamstring injury, while last year’s second-round pick Keon Coleman has been a healthy scratch.
Allen has no issue putting the team on his back. He struggled against a tough Texans’ defense in Week 12, but he put together one of the best games in the history of the position the week prior. He finished with 317 yards and three touchdowns through the air, and he added another 40 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Allen’s legs have always been a huge part of his skill set. He’s already notched double-digit rushing TDs for the third consecutive season, and he’s averaged 37.0 rushing yards per game for his career. He’s at 33.7 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s had more than 28.5 in seven of 11 outings.
The Steelers have done a solid job at limiting QBs on the ground, but they haven’t faced many mobile passers. Drake Maye got them for 45 yards on seven carries in their matchup, and he’s probably Allen’s closest comparable. Ultimately, this number is simply too low.
Where to play: Josh Allen Rushing Yards – Higher Than 28.5 | Underdog
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