We’re going to hunt for the best NFL Week 11 bets for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Best Week 13 Bets – NFL Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
Travis Etienne, JAX at TEN
- Over 60.5 rushing yards
Etienne has at times lost some work to rookie Bhayshul Tuten this season, but the veteran back is still the most reliable backfield piece for the Jaguars by far and has logged at least 15 carries in four straight games.
Etienne has turned those opportunities into 301 rushing yards at 4.2 yards per carry, and Sunday, he’s in line for what should be another productive day.
The opposing Titans have been beatable on the ground all season, and despite some recent improvement in that regard, Tennessee is still surrendering 4.84 RB yards per carry while holding No. 26 and No. 29 rankings in second-level (1.37) and open-field (1.22) yards per carry allowed.
Etienne certainly has the speed to take advantage of those weaknesses, and he sports a solid 13.6% broken-tackle rate as well. He’s also taken five runs for 20+ yards, including three for 40+, and a couple of those long scampers is all he’ll need to be well on his way to eclipsing this figure for the seventh time in 12 games.
Ashton Jeanty, LVR at LAC
- Over 53.5 rushing yards
The Raiders have lived up to the Black Hole moniker for all the wrong reasons in Pete Carroll’s first season at the helm, but Jeanty has somehow found a way to get his vast talent to permeate the darkness every so often.
This week, the rookie first-round pick gets a chance to work in what will be a somewhat revamped offense following the dismissal of coordinator Chip Kelly, and he also draws a favorable on-paper matchup.
The Chargers are a playoff contender, but their run defense has shown cracks. Los Angeles is surrendering the seventh-most RB yards per carry (4.81), while also checking in with No. 27 and No. 23 rankings in second-level (1.39) and open-field (0.91) yards per carry surrendered.
Jeanty has a low center of gravity that’s helped him to an elite 24.1% broken-tackle rate and allowed him to gain an outstanding 78.1% of his yards after first contact. He’s managed just one run of 20+ yards all season thanks the Raiders’ forgettable blocking, but interim coordinator Greg Olson is an experienced coach that has pledged to unlock the talents of the team’s best offensive weapons (Jeanty and Brock Bowers).
Courtland Sutton, DEN at WAS
- Over 49.5 receiving yards
- Longest reception over 21.5 yards
Sutton has been relatively quiet the last few weeks after a strong start to the season, posting a 12-180-1 line on 24 targets the last four games. As those numbers imply, he hasn’t always been in sync with Bo Nix during that period, but the duo has had a bye week to get things back on track and now draw the ideal matchup to try and accomplish that goal with.
The Commanders have been repeatedly been victimized through the air this season, especially downfield. Washington is allowing an NFL-high 12.3 yards per completion, including a league-high 13.2 per home game. Dan Quinn’s squad has also yielded a robust 14.3 yards per catch to wide receivers and has done so while allowing a 68.9% catch rate.
Sutton is averaging a formidable 14.4 yards per reception for the season, and he’s taken a highly impressive 12 of his 45 catches for 20+ yards, including one 40+ grab. The fleet-footed veteran is laying claim to 30.4% of his team’s air yards as well, and he’s averaging 1.84 yards per route run overall.
The Commanders are also playing man at the league’s 11th-highest rate (34.84%), while Sutton is averaging 2.5 yards per route run against that scheme specifically.
BONUS PROP: Bo Nix Over 223.5 passing yards:
Given the vulnerabilities of the Commanders defense just cited and the fact Washington is also giving up a 76.0% completion rate in the last three games, this prop is very much in play for Nix after throwing for at least 242 yards on five occasions.
TreVeyon Henderson, NE at NYG
- Over 81.5 rushing + receiving yards
Henderson delivered for us as a suggestion in last week’s article, and he further solidified his place atop the backfield pecking order in New England in the process. The explosive rookie second-round pick is on a nice run of production that’s seen him average 102.8 rushing + receiving yards per contest over the last four games.
He now gets a chance to put a bow on the Week 13 slate with a matchup against the hapless Giants run defense, which comes in having surrendered a league-high 6.24 RB yards per carry after being absolutely trampled by the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 12.
Anyone who saw Gibbs repeatedly break past the first line of defense in that game wouldn’t be surprised to learn New York also has No. 32 rankings in both second-level (1.60) and open-field (1.95) yards per carry allowed. That vulnerability can essentially be as dangerous against Henderson, who also has breakaway speed and has three runs of 20+ yards, including two of 40+, and nine runs of double-digit yardage overall across 118 carries.
Henderson also has a 29-180-1 line on 34 targets as a pass catcher, and the Giants have given up an average of 5.1 receptoins and 32.9 receiving yards to running backs per contest. Henderson has 13 of his receptions and 81 of his receiving yards over the last four games while filling an expanded role, making this prop a very achievable one for him. st figure.
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