We’re going to hunt for the best NFL Week 11 bets for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Best Week 11 Bets – NFL Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
Aaron Jones, MIN vs. CHI
- Over 75.5 rushing + receiving yards
Multiple running backs are set up for success this week, and we’ll start our exploration of that theme with Jones.
The veteran has been constantly frustrated by injuries this season, but he’s looked like his old self in the last two games while gaining 125 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and adding a 5-42-0 line on eight targets. Jones is cleary the more explosive option of the two between him and Jordan Mason, and in a home game where the Vikings are favored, the former stands out.
The opposing Bears are allowing 4.92 RB yards per carry, along with 1.36 second-level yards (No. 25) and 1.13 open-field yards (No. 27) per carry. In turn, the Vikings’ offensive line is facilitating the fifth-most second-level yards per carry (1.42). Jones also still has the receiving chops to capitalize on the 7.6 yards per reception Chicago is allowing to RBs, as he still has excellent hands and is averaging an above-average 9.4 yards after the catch per reception.
Woody Marks, HOU at TEN
- Over 60.5 rushing yards
Marks has been coming on in recent weeks in his own right, and even though Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans continues to insist on keeping Nick Chubb a part of the ground attack each week, it’s clear the rookie is the home-run threat and more capable all-around weapon at this point in their respective careers.
Marks has logged double-digit carries in four straight games, and over his last three, he has two 60+-yard performances. Marks is averaging 4.3 yards per carry in that stretch overall while doing an excellent job in terms of ball security (zero fumbles thus far in his NFL career). Sunday, he’s in a prime spot to extend the positive stretch of play against the vulnerable Titans run defense.
Tennessee is surrendering 4.92 RB yards per carry, along with 1.38 second-level yards (No. 20) and 1.34 open-field yards (No. 28) per carry. Marks has a 79.0% positive run rate, and the Titans have faced the seventh-most rush attempts per game (29.2) in the league thanks in large part to their vulnerability. With Davis Mills starting another game for C.J. Stroud, Houston is likely to lean heavily on the grun so long as game script allows.
Rico Dowdle, CAR at ATL
- Over 85.5 rushing yards
Dowdle had a bit of an underwhelming performance after a hot start in Week 10 against the Saints, but an encouraging aspect of his afternoon was that head coach Dave Canales held true to his word of keeping him his clear lead back. Backfield mate Chuba Hubbard garnered only three carries on the afternoon to Dowdle’s 18, and the latter would likely have been in store for more work had New Orleans not unexpectedly given Carolina so much trouble.
This divisional matchup against the Falcons in Week 11 should be challenging as well, but Dowdle will have the benefit of playing in the fast track of a dome environment and is facing a defense that’s surrendered 4.99 adjusted line yards and 4.76 RB yards per carry. The Falcons have also conceded 1.37 second-level yards (No. 26) and 0.80 open-field yards (No. 21) per carry.
Dowdle has a solid 14.8% broken-tackle rate and is gaining an above-average 3.6 yards after contact per carry. He’s flashed some explosiveness as well, recording five runs of 20+ yards, including two of 40+. He’s surpassed the yardage for this prop on three occasions overall, and with Bryce Young still inconsistent and the Falcons boasting a top-10 pass defense, Dowdle should see significant volume.
Jameson Williams, DET at PHI
- Over 55.5 receiving yards
Williams came through in Week 10 by blowing away a very reachable yardage prop, and it’s only gone up 20 yards this week despite his season-best 119-yard tally. With a matchup against another secondary that gives up some chunk plays and helped us cash a Christian Watson prop Monday night, Williams is back in play.
The Eagles are allowing the seventh-most yards per completion (10.5), and they’ve surrendered 12.6 yards per catch to wide receivers specifically. Additionally, Philadelphia is playing man coverage at a league-high 53.6% clip at home, a scheme that Williams’ speed can wreak havoc against. The fleet-footed wide receiver is averaging a massive 3.11 yards per route run against man, including 5.17 per route in the last three games.
Williams is averaging 69.1 air yards per game, and he’s carrying a significant 14.5-yard aDOT as well. With a 36.2% air yards share and Sam LaPorta (back) also sidelined for Sunday night’s game, this is a prop Williams could well outpace comfortably in a game the Lions will be aggressive in.
Tre Tucker, LVR vs. DAL
- 44.5 receiving yards
Tucker is our second primetime speedster that we’re focused on this week, as he’s in an even better spot than Williams in terms of matchup. The opposing Cowboys have allowed the third-most yards per completion (11.0), including the third most in the last three games (12.0). Dallas is also allowing a generous 14.5 yards per reception to wide receivers.
Tucker is the new No. 1 receiver in Las Vegas following the trade-deadline departure of Jakobi Meyers, and even though that role yielded a modest 2-27 receiving line in his first game in Week 9, that came against the elite Broncos defense.
Tucker is obviously in a much better spot this time around and makes for a very good target against the aforementioned weaknesses, considering he’s averaging 13.4 yards per reception and has already taken seven of his 34 catches for 20+ yards, including one for 40+.
Tucker has exceeded this total in four of nine games, and the Raiders are also coming off a bye week where they’ve had plenty of time to tweak the offense to account for Meyers’ departure after having only two days to do so before playing Denver. The Cowboys have also yielded a 70.2% completion rate on the road, which should certainly up the chances of Geno Smith and Tucker connecting enough for him to vault over this modest figure.
Looking for more content? We’ve got you covered all season:
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