You’re in the right place for Chiefs Bills props! We have a late-Sunday slugfest on tap between Buffalo and Miami, and we’ll certainly dive into Patrick Mahomes props while we’re at it.
This AFC rivalry never seems to get old and always has an exciting finish. Let’s break down the action.
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Chiefs vs Bills Prediction Today: Mahomes Props & Bills Best Bets
Does it get any better than Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen? Both gunslingers will duel it out on Sunday, and the whole world will be watching. These games always make for interesting predictions.
Patrick Mahomes Props – Rushing Yards
We’ve had some lackluster “marquee games” in recent weeks, but that’s definitely not the case this week.
The Chiefs and Bills will square off in a battle between two of the best squads in football. The Chiefs have made it to seven straight AFC Championships, and they’ve managed to win five of them. Two of those wins have come against the Bills, including last season.
This game also features two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Josh Allen has had the edge over Mahomes statistically over the past few seasons, but Mahomes is battling back this year.
He leads the league with 17 touchdown passes, and he’s been red hot since getting back his top two receivers. He’s tossed at least three touchdowns in four of his past five games, and he’s led his team to wins in five of their past six.
While Mahomes is mostly known for his work with his right arm, he’s also done more with his legs this season. He’s averaging a career-best 35.0 rushing yards per game, and he’s had at least 28 rushing yards in six of eight contests.
Mahomes has always been known to use his legs at key moments in big games, and this week’s matchup vs. the Bills certainly qualifies.
Still, this number feels a bit high. Mahomes averaged just 19.2 rushing yards per game last season, and he’s never previously been above 24.3.
He was forced to scramble a bit more than usual at the beginning of the season with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy sidelined, but he shouldn’t need to do it as much moving forward.
Mahomes has had just four carries in back-to-back games, and he’s going to need to be extremely efficient to get to more than 28.5 rushing yards with that type of volume.
The Bills’ defense allowed 70 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields in back-to-back games to start the season, but since then, they’ve held four of five opponents to 12 yards or fewer. Ultimately, this feels like an excellent sell-high spot.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards – Lower Than 28.5 | Underdog
Best Bills Prop Bet – Elijah Moore Receiving Yards
The Bills spread the ball around more than just about any team in football. Keon Coleman leads the team with a 21% target share, while Khalil Shakir (20%) and Dalton Kincaid (16%) are just behind. After that, there are a host of different players earning somewhere between 5% and 12% of the targets.
Moore is one of them. He hasn’t been on the field a ton this season, but he’s been featured frequently when he is. He’s been targeted on 19% of his routes run, which is one of the better marks on the squad.
Moore’s route participation was up to 48% in his last outing, and he responded with a season-high four targets. He only managed to catch one of them for 14 yards, but it was still an encouraging development for his prospects moving forward.
The big reason for Moore’s increase was the absence of Joshua Palmer. He missed last week’s game with ankle and knee injuries, and he’s been ruled out once again vs. the Chiefs.
His absence should once again lead to an expanded workload for Moore, and the Bills should have to throw the ball more than they did in last week’s blowout win vs. the Panthers. Moore’s four-target performance came in a game where Allen attempted just 19 passes, so he brings considerable upside to the table in Week 9.
Pick: Elijah Moore Receiving Yards – Higher Than 19.5 | Underdog
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