The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props.
We have two crucial Game 5 contests on tap, starting with the Heat vs. the 76ers at 7:30 p.m. ET. The second game features the Mavericks and Suns, and both of these series are tied at two apiece. Whoever wins Game 5 of a tied series tends to win the series at a high clip, so expect both teams to treat this contest like a must-win.
Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top NBA props from Tuesday’s two-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 11 a.m. ET on May 10.
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Heat vs 76ers Player Props
Philadelphia 76ers: C Joel Embiid
The prop: 27.5 points (at Miami)
The odds: Over -125/Under -110
It has been a rough postseason for Embiid from an injury perspective. He’s still dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, and he also suffered a concussion and a right orbital fracture in the first round vs. the Raptors.
That said, those injuries haven’t been enough to slow down Embiid. He’s currently playing with a mask on, but he returned to the lineup and led the team to victories in Games 3 and 4. He hasn’t been quite as aggressive offensively – his average usage rate of 28.7 percent is down considerably from the first round – but he has clearly given the team a lift.
I’m expecting Embiid to pick up the pace a bit in Game 5. He posted a usage rate of 37.2 percent during the regular season, so he has plenty of room for growth as a scorer. With a few additional shot attempts, he should be able to blow past his current scoring prop of 27.5. Embiid averaged 32.6 points per 36 minutes during the regular season, and he could approach 40 minutes in a crucial matchup.
Miami Heat: SF Max Strus
The prop: 10.5 points (vs. Philadelphia)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Strus is officially listed as questionable for Game 5, but expect him to be in the lineup. The Heat have listed virtually their entire roster as questionable all season, but Strus has suited up in each playoff game.
Strus has also remained a starter despite the Heat virtually at full strength. He was fantastic for the Heat in the first round, averaging 14.0 points per game over 28.9 minutes, but he hasn’t been able to recapture that success vs. the 76ers. He has been relegated to exclusively a 3-point shooter, with all but one of his 30 attempts coming from behind the arc.
Still, I like his chances of going over 10.5 points in this matchup. He should be able to make multiple 3-pointers – something he’s done in three straight games – which means he doesn’t need to do much more to crack double-digits.
Suns vs Mavericks Player Props
Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson
The prop: 3.5 assists (at Phoenix)
The odds: Over +120/Under -160
Brunson, who will be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, has made himself a lot of money with his play in 2021-22. He was a vital part of the Mavs’ rotation during the regular campaign, and he’s been excellent during the postseason as well. Specifically, he played a huge role in the Mavericks’ victories over Phoenix in Games 3 and 4 that evened this series, averaging 23.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists.
For purposes of this NBA props exercise, let’s focus on that latter statistic: It’s a full notch above his assists prop for Tuesday’s Game 5. And we are getting plus-money to the Over? Seems like a gift, considering Brunson averaged 4.8 assists per contest in the regular season and has surpassed this prop number of in six of his 10 playoff contests.
It’s safe to say this is one of my favorite NBA props on the Tuesday slate. So we’ll happily grab Over 3.5/+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phoenix Suns: SG Devin Booker
The prop: 32.5 points + rebounds (vs. Dallas)
The odds: Over -110/Under -125
I have some interest in Booker’s scoring and rebounding props on Tuesday, so why not combine them?
Booker is coming off a fantastic showing in his last outing, finishing with 35 points and four boards. He’s hit the over on his points + rebounds prop in two of his past three games, and he just narrowly missed the over in a fourth. The only contest where he’s failed to approach this number vs. the Mavericks was Game 2, where he was limited to just 35.5 minutes in a blowout win.
Booker played more than 43.3 minutes in his last outing, and I would expect a similar workload in what is essentially a must-win game.
