We’re going to hunt for the best Week 7 picks for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Best Week 7 Picks – NFL Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
Quinshon Judkins, CLE vs. MIA
- Over 79.5 rushing yards
Despite a forgettable Week 6 against the Steelers where game script worked against him, Judkins has plenty of buzz this week due to his matchup against an atrocious Dolphins run defense. Miami is allowing 4.81 adjusted line yards per carry, as well as a voluminous and co-NFL-high 5.62 RB yards per rush.
As is almost always the case with a figure that high in the latter category, Miami is guilty of constantly allowing runners to get into the second level of the defense and beyond, ranking No. 31 in both second-level yards (1.54) and open-field yards (1.64) per carry surrendered.
In turn, Judkins is gaining an average of 3.1 yards per carry after contact, accounting for 67.4% of his yardage on the ground overall. Additionally, while he has just a trio of 20+ yard runs thus far, he possesses sub-4.5 speed and has eight runs overall of 10+ yards.
He’s also averaging a solid 2.83 yards before contact per carry at home, and although his standard prop of 91.5 rushing yards and up is extremely elevated, taking an 80+ yard prop at a bit of a higher price is a safer way to go, in case there are game-script concerns that limit Judkins’ opportunities.
Jordan Addison, MIN vs. PHI
- Over 42.5 receiving yards
While the Eagles’ defense isn’t normally one to target with props, the combination of a very achievable yardage figure for Addison and the likelihood Quinyon Mitchell spends the majority of his time on Justin Jefferson makes this an intriguing way to go.
The numbers also help make a case. Addison has worked well with Carson Wentz, who’s confirmed as Sunday’s starter against the team that drafted him second overall back in 2016, recording a 9-155-1 line on 14 targets. That’s a healthy average of 17.2 yards per catch, helped along by a pair of 20+-yard receptions and an average of 7.8 yards after the catch per grab.
The Eagles have allowed an average of 7.1 receptions and 70.1 receiving yards to WR2s thus far this season. They’ve also surrendered an elevated 11.0 yards per completion in the last three games, while Addison has an 11.6-yard aDOT and is averaging 1.91 yards per route run.
It’s also worth noting the Eagles are playing man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate (59.5%, including 60.4% in their last three games), while Addison is averaging 10.3 yards per target vs. man over his first two games.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS at DAL
- Over 77.5 rushing + receiving yards
Croskey-Merritt delivered for us as a Week 6 prop recommendation, and we’re back to the well with him this week against one of the most generous matchups for running backs through the first six weeks of the season.
The Cowboys are allowing 4.73 RB yards per carry while ranking No. 30 in second-level yards per carry (1.55) specifically. Dallas also ranks No. 23 in open-field yards per carry surrendered (0.79), while JCM is averaging 5.7 yards per carry with a superior 23.3% broken-tackle rate and average of 3.5 yards after contact per carry.
Washington’s offensive line is facilitating an NFL-high 5.54 RB yards per carry and holds No. 5 and No. 2 rankings in second-level (1.41) and open-field (1.50) yards per carry facilitated, respectively. Dallas has also given up the second-most receptions (35) and the most receiving yards (355) to RBs.
Couple all that statistical synergy with the fact this game has a massive 54.5-point total, and this rushing + receiving yardage prop is in play for the talented rookie.
George Pickens, DAL vs. WAS
- Over 59.5 receiving yards
The expected return of CeeDee Lamb from his three-game absence is naturally lowering Pickens’ projections after he posted a stellar 19-359-4 line on 26 targets in his teammate’s stead during that span. That gives us a potential edge to exploit in a game, that, as just mentioned in Croskey-Merritt’s entry, has sky-high offensive expectations.
Pickens totaled 98 receiving yards in the first two games of the season, the only pair of non-injury-shortened contests Lamb has played thus far. However, Pickens was still adjusting to the offense at that point and the first game came against the defending champion Eagles on the road. In the subsequent four games – for which Lamb was absent for all but part of one quarter – Pickens averaged an elite 3.09 yards per route run while drawing a 25.4% target share.
The Commanders have surrendered an NFL-high 12.1 yards per completion, and Washington is also playing man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league (48.8%, including 50% on the road). Pickens is averaging 14.5 yards per target versus man coverage while running an NFC-high 108 routes versus that scheme, and he’s laying claim to a hefty 36.3% share of the Cowboys’ air yards.
Jonathan Taylor, IND at LAC
- Over 88.5 rushing yards
Taylor is in the midst of another stellar season, posting the second-highest average yards per carry (5.2) of his career. An impressive 25.2% broken-tackle rate and 3.6 average yards after contact per carry are certainly playing a big role in that success, not to mention a Colts O-line ranked No. 5 in adjusted line yards per carry (4.77) and No. 6 in RB yards per carry (4.95) facilitated.
That makes the matchup against a Chargers defense surrendering 4.95 RB yards per carry and ranked No. 27 in second-level (1.42) and open-field (1.20) yards per carry allowed especially enticing. Los Angeles also holds the same ranking in rushing first down percentage (28.97), while Taylor has taken 29 of his 115 carries for first downs and 15 of his totes for 10+ yards.
The sixth-year pro has eclipsed this yardage prop in three of his first six games and has over 70 yards in two of the others in which he’s fallen short. Therefore, in what should be a very close game, Taylor should have plenty of opportunity to vault over this figure.
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