The narrative that has dominated the first month of the 2022 MLB season can be summed up in three words. No, not “The Reds suck” (although that’s not inaccurate). Rather, we’re talking about these three words: low scoring games.
As pitchers continue to light up the radar gun and hitters continue to swing for (and usually miss) the fences, runs have been tough to come by all season. (Unless you’re the New York Mets in the ninth inning.) Bookmakers clearly don’t believe that will change Friday night in San Diego, where a pair of right-handers with filthy stuff are expected to dominate — at least based on the consensus 6.5 total that’s attached to Marlins vs Padres odds.
Will goose eggs dominate the Petco Park scoreboard for a second straight night? Or will there be a mini parade around the bases that culminates with a lot of high-fiving at home plate? Props.com breaks down Marlins vs Padres odds in what is the most intriguing National League matchup on the Friday docket.
Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 6:50 p.m. ET on May 6.
Miami Marlins (12-13) vs San Diego Padres (17-9)
First Pitch/TV: MLB.TV
Moneyline: Padres -130/Marlins +120
Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+170)/Marlins +1.5 (-210)
Total: 6.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Pitching matchup: RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs. RHP Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Season series: San Diego leads 1-0 after prevailing 2-1 in Thursday’s opener of a four-game series. The Padres won last year’s season series 4-3.
Did you know: Despite Thursday’s game falling well short of the total, the Over is still 10-3-2 in the last 15 Marlins-Padres clashes at Petco Park.
About the Marlins
Hits & Misses: Miami has been riding a roller coaster all season. The club started out 5-8, won its next seven in a row, and now is mired in a five-game losing skid. The Marlins are in second place in the NL East, but 5.5 games behind the Mets. Thursday’s loss snapped Miami’s five-game road winning streak. It was also the 13th time in 25 games that the Fish have scored two runs or fewer. Miami ranks in the middle of the pack or lower in nearly every offensive category, including 20th in runs scored. On the bump, though, the Marlins sport MLB’s sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.02) and 12th-best team ERA (3.50), and is tied for 10th in opponents’ batting average (.224).
On the Mound: Alcantara was sensational in his first four starts, allowing five runs in 25.1 innings (1.78 ERA). But he got roughed up in Saturday’s home outing against the Mariners, yielding five runs on six hits (including two homers) and four walks. In his only career start against the Padres last August, the 26-year-old Dominican was thoroughly dominant. He tossed seven shutout innings while allowing four hits, two walks, and striking out seven in a 7-0 victory at Petco. Going back to September, though, Miami is 2-5 in Alcantara’s last seven starts.
Key injuries: SS Jose Devers and RP Dylan Floro (both shoulder injuries) are on the 10-day injured list and not expected back until mid-May.
About the Padres
Hits & Misses: San Diego is 11-4 since April 17. If not for a pair of one-run losses at Cleveland and Pittsburgh — two games they led late — the Padres would be riding an eight-game winning streak. Also, prior to producing just two runs Thursday — both solo homers from 3B Manny Machado — the Friars had scored at least five runs in seven consecutive contests (47 runs in all). San Diego is 6-2 in its last eight at home, with both losses coming to the Dodgers. Despite a .227 team batting average and .694 OPS, the Padres rank fourth in MLB in runs scored. A big reason why: 1B Eric Hosmer (.376) and Machado (.374) are 1-2 in batting average. Machado is also first in MLB in runs (25), second in OPS (1.104), tied for seventh in homers (7) and tied for ninth in RBI (20).
On the Mound: Darvish’s season stats are a bit skewed by an ugly second start of the season in San Francisco, where he gave up nine runs in 1.2 innings. Strip that away, and the veteran right-hander has allowed four runs, 13 hits and eight walks with 23 strikeouts in four outings spanning 24.2 innings (1.46 ERA, 0.85 WHIP). Darvish went at least six innings in each of those four contests. That includes last Friday in Pittsburgh, where he yielded three runs on eight hits and one walk in a 7-3 victory. That was the Padres’ third straight win with Darvish on the mound. The first two were at home, where Darvish has allowed one run and eight baserunners with 15 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. The 35-year-old from Japan is 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA in six career starts against Miami.
Key injuries: LF Wil Myers (thumb) and 1B Luke Voit (biceps) are on the IL and not due back until mid-May. Multiple Padres pitchers also are out indefinitely, including SP Blake Snell (groin) and RPs Austin Adams (forearm) and Drew Pomeranz (forearm).
Notable Trends
- MIA is 12-41 in its last 53 as a road underdog
- SD is 9-2 in its last 11 as a favorite
- Over is 4-1 in MIA’s last five overall and 8-2 in SD’s last 10 overall
- Home team is 5-1 in the last six Marlins-Padres battles
- SD is 7-3 in its last 10 home games vs. MIA
- Under is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings overall
Marlins Vs Padres Odds and Action
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET: San Diego opened a modest -120 chalk Thursday afternoon in WynnBet’s Marlins vs Padres odds market, with Florida even money. The line peaked earlier this evening at Padres -132/Marlins +122, and it’s now Padres -130/Marlins +120. Ticket count is just shy of 3/1 and money 4/1 on San Diego.
The total opened at 6.5 (Over -115) and saw only a couple of price adjustments, going to Over -120 a couple of times Thursday evening, then stabilizing at the Over -115 opener. It’s practically all Over action, with tickets and money in the 7/1 range.
UPDATE 2:45 P.M. ET: WynnBet opened this game Padres -120/Marlins +110, with San Diego since bouncing between -120 and -130. The moneyline is currently Padres -129/Marlins +119. The total opened and is currently at 6.5 (Over -115), with a couple of brief trips to Over (Over -120) along the way.