The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props. We have three more contests scheduled for Tuesday, including two massive Game 5 tilts.
The Suns and Pelicans are currently tied at two games apiece, as are the Grizzlies and Timberwolves. Historically, whichever team wins Game 5 of a tied series goes on to advance at a massive clip, so expect all four of these teams to treat it as a must-win contest. The Heat will also have their first opportunity to close out the Hawks. That gives us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the NBA player prop market.
So without further delay, let’s dive into our top five NBA props from Tuesday’s three-game slate.
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Heat vs Hawks Player Props
Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young
The prop: 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Miami)
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
The Heat have done a great job of containing Young so far in this series. They’ve held him to single-digit points in two of four games, something that happened only once in 76 regular-season games. Overall, he’s averaged just 16.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game this series, putting him well below the target number of 37.5.
Still, this is an elimination game for the Hawks, so expect to see Young come out firing. He’s averaged just 36.3 minutes and 14.3 field-goal attempts during the postseason, and I would expect both of those figures to increase in Game 5.
Young is also a candidate for some positive shooting regression. The Heat have done a fantastic job defensively on Young, but part of his struggles has just been bad luck. He’s made just 21.2 percent of his 3-point attempts in this series after knocking down 38.2 percent of his triples during the regular season.
There’s some buy-low appeal with Young in this spot.
Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Player Props
Minnesota Timberwolves: C Karl-Anthony Towns
The prop: 23.5 points (at Memphis)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Like Young, Towns is another player who has struggled during the postseason. However, his struggles can be almost directly attributed to foul trouble. In the Timberwolves’ two wins, he’s averaged more than 42.5 minutes per game and scored at least 29 points in both contests. In their two losses, he’s averaged just 11.5 points in 30.4 minutes per game. Towns picked up five fouls in each of the two losses, which explains the stark difference in playing time.
As long as Towns can stay out of foul trouble in Game 5, this number seems way too low. Towns averaged 24.6 points per game in 33.5 minutes during the regular season, so he can do some serious damage with more than 40 minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies: PG Ja Morant
The prop: 9.5 assists (vs. Minnesota)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Morant has been quiet as a scorer recently, but he’s made up for it with his work as a distributor. He’s handed out at least 10 dimes in three straight games, including a whopping 15 in his last outing.
That said, that kind of production is a major outlier for Morant. He’s more of a score-first point guard than a distributor, and he averaged just 6.7 assists per game during the regular season.
With that in mind, I’m willing to bet on some regression with Morant’s passing on Tuesday.
Suns vs Pelicans Player Props
New Orleans Pelicans: SF Brandon Ingram
The prop: 26.5 points (at Phoenix)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
Ingram has been absolutely rolling recently, and he’s a big reason why the Pelicans have tied their series with the Suns at two games apiece. He’s scored at least 30 points in each of his past three games, and the Pelicans have arguably been the better team in this series since Devin Booker got hurt.
However, Ingram looks like a regression candidate in Game 5. He’s shot the ball at an unsustainable clip recently, drilling 55.6% of his shots from the floor and 50.0% of his 3-point attempts over the past three games. Ingram was just 46.1 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from 3-point range during the regular season, so those seem like major outliers.
The Suns’ defense also shouldn’t continue to be as bad as they’ve been of late. They’ve allowed more than 120 points per 100 possessions with Booker off the floor in this series, but the Suns were actually better defensively with Booker off the floor during the regular season. They allowed -5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions in that situation, so I’m expecting much less scoring from the Pelicans in Game 5.
Phoenix Suns: PG Chris Paul
The prop: 12.5 assists (vs. New Orleans)
The odds: Over -105/Under -125
This is a pretty astronomical number for an assist prop, but I still think you can make the case that it’s too low. Paul has been dropping dimes left and right in this series, racking up at least 10 in all four games. He also has two games with at least 14 assists, and he leads all players with 19.3 potential assists per game during the postseason (per NBA.com).
Paul should continue to thrive as a passer with Booker out of the lineup. He increased his assist rate by +3.1 percent with Booker off the floor during the regular season, and he should see all the minutes he can handle in a crucial Game 5.