In this free recurring feature, we will post the best tennis props today on the top DFS pick’em and betting sites, along with the reasons why.
Tennis has become a popular sport for DFS and betting, so let’s see if we can make some money and pick some winners. We will be posting frequent plays with well-reasoned analysis for the biggest events, so keep checking back!
Best Apps in The United States
Best Tennis Props Today – DFS Pick’Em & Betting Analysis
Tennis takes place all throughout the day. In order to maintain consistency and expectations, these tennis player props will be posted when there are major events taking place.
Friday, May 16 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Carlos Alcaraz faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Italian Open semifinals. Alcaraz is coming off a 6-4, 6-4 win against Jack Draper in the quarterfinals, while Musetti beat Alexander Zverev 7-6 (7-1), 6-4 in the quarterfinals.
Alcaraz is 4-1 in five career matches against Musetti. Alcaraz has won the last four matches, including a 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 victory in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Final last month.
Alcaraz is at his most dangerous on clay, where his elite movement, court coverage, and creative shot-making fully come to life. His 6-4, 6-4 win over Draper was businesslike—he absorbed pace, redirected pressure, and neutralized his opponent’s power with precision. Alcaraz’s ability to combine power with variety—especially his use of drop shots and sudden pace shifts—disrupts rhythm and breaks down even the most consistent baseliners.
Against Musetti, Alcaraz will look to repeat the formula that overwhelmed him in Monte-Carlo: take control early in rallies, push Musetti wide with aggressive forehands, and exploit the space with drop shots or step-in winners. Alcaraz’s biggest strength in this matchup is his ability to smother Musetti’s rhythm and force errors with relentless pressure.
Musetti is a shot-maker with one of the most elegant games on tour. His win over Zverev was a major confidence boost, as he stayed composed under pressure and used his variety to control tempo. His one-handed backhand, touch volleys, and comfort moving on clay make him a stylistic threat—especially if allowed to dictate.
But against Alcaraz, Musetti’s biggest challenges are physical and mental endurance. When Alcaraz raises the tempo, Musetti often struggles to maintain consistency over long stretches. In their past four meetings, Musetti has only won one set—his best hope lies in serving at a high level and mixing spins, angles, and pace to break Alcaraz’s rhythm. If the rallies become reactive or passive, Alcaraz will dominate.
Musetti is capable of moments of brilliance and will likely produce highlight-reel shots in front of the Italian crowd, but Alcaraz’s superior athleticism, shot tolerance, and tactical aggression have consistently overwhelmed him in their matchups.
Unless Musetti can deliver a near-flawless performance and take time away from Alcaraz, this match is likely to follow a familiar pattern. Expect a strong opening from Musetti, but Alcaraz should pull away in straight sets and return to the final in commanding form.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win 1st set and win match | FanDuel
Jannik Sinner vs. Tommy Paul
Jannik Sinner will clash with Tommy Paul in the Italian Open semifinals. Sinner is coming off a dominant 6-0, 6-1 win against Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals while Paul beat Hubert Hurkacz 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 in the quarterfinals.
Sinner is 3-1 in four career matches against Paul. In their last match, Sinner beat Paul 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (7-5), 6-1 in the fourth round of the 2024 US Open.
With the home crowd and clay conditions favoring Sinner, Paul will need to play his very best to keep up. Sinner is in devastating form. His 6-0, 6-1 demolition of Ruud—arguably one of the top clay-courters in the world—was a statement. Sinner’s clean hitting, precise timing, and ability to control both wings with depth and pace have made him nearly untouchable this week. His serve continues to improve, and his return game remains one of the most lethal on tour.
What makes Sinner so dangerous is his ability to stay aggressive without sacrificing consistency. He rarely gives away free points, and his footwork on clay allows him to slide into his strokes without losing balance. Against Paul, Sinner will look to dominate with his backhand crosscourt and flatten out forehands to take control of rallies early.
Paul is a crafty, athletic competitor with excellent foot speed and a strong transition game. His win over Hurkacz showed his ability to absorb pace, use variety, and create offense from defense. He’s a smart tactician who can mix slice, angle, and net play to disrupt an opponent’s rhythm.
However, Paul tends to struggle against opponents who hit a consistently heavy ball and don’t give him many openings—something Sinner specializes in. While Paul can grind on clay and extend rallies, he’ll need to play first-strike tennis when possible and be willing to take risks to shorten points. If he’s pushed too far behind the baseline, he’ll struggle to flip momentum.
Paul has the tools to trouble many top-tier players, but Sinner’s form and familiarity with this matchup leave little room for doubt. With the Italian crowd behind him and his game firing on all cylinders, Sinner is likely to take control early and never let go.
Expect Paul to compete hard, but Sinner’s weight of shot, court coverage, and confidence should carry him to a straight-sets win and into the Italian Open Final.
Pick: Jannik Sinner to win 1st set and win match | FanDuel
Thursday, May 15 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul
Hubert Hurkacz will face Tommy Paul in the Italian Open quarterfinals. Hurkacz is coming off a 7-6 (7-5), 4-6, 7-6 (7-5) win against Jakub Mensik in the fourth round while Paul upset Alex De Minaur 7-5, 6-3 in the fourth round.
Paul is 2-1 in three career matches against Hurkacz. Paul won the last two matches, including a 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 victory in the Italian Open quarterfinals last year.
Paul’s athleticism and clay-court adaptability have proven effective against Hurkacz’s serve-based game. With both players in strong form, another close contest is expected.
Hurkacz is one of the best servers on tour, and even on clay, he can dominate service games with his precise placement and kick serve. His game is centered around the serve-plus-one pattern, often looking to dictate with his forehand after a strong delivery. In his win over Mensik, Hurkacz leaned heavily on clutch serving in tiebreaks, a testament to his composure under pressure.
However, Hurkacz can be exposed in extended rallies and struggles to change direction on slower surfaces. His movement on clay isn’t as fluid as it is on hard courts, and when forced into defense, his backhand—though solid—is not as versatile under pressure. Against a player like Paul who thrives in long rallies and sharp angles, Hurkacz will need to keep points short and serve at a high percentage.
Paul brings a well-rounded game with speed, consistency, and tactical intelligence, making him one of the most underrated clay-court performers on tour. His win over De Minaur showed how effective he can be when dictating with his forehand and drawing opponents out wide with angled crosscourt shots. His defensive speed and ability to transition into offense are key strengths.
Against Hurkacz, Paul will aim to extend points, attack the second serve, and use his variety to keep Hurkacz off balance. He’s comfortable sliding into shots and generating depth on the run, which allows him to exploit Hurkacz’s relatively limited movement on clay. Paul also has confidence from winning their last two meetings, including on this same stage a year ago.
Hurkacz will win his fair share of quick points on serve and likely take a set, but Paul’s comfort on clay, tactical flexibility, and recent success in this matchup give him the edge. Expect a back-and-forth battle with multiple momentum shifts, but Paul’s movement and rally management should carry him through in another three-set win, repeating history in Rome and advancing to the semifinals.
Pick: Over 22.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud
Jannik Sinner battles Casper Ruud in the Italian Open quarterfinals. Sinner beat Francisco Cerundolo 7-6 (7-2), 6-3 in the fourth round while Ruud beat Jaume Munar 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round.
Sinner is 3-0 in three career matches against Ruud. In their last match, Sinner beat Ruud 6-1, 6-2 in the semifinals of the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.
While clay offers Ruud his best chance, Sinner’s current form and past control of this matchup suggest he’s still the player to beat.
Sinner is in the midst of a career surge, and his win over Cerúndolo highlighted everything that makes him dangerous—clean baseline aggression, clutch serving in key moments, and pinpoint shot placement. Even on clay, his pace off both wings pierces through slower courts, and his backhand remains one of the most technically sound and consistent on tour.
Sinner’s ability to take time away from opponents is particularly damaging against players like Ruud who need rhythm. He flattens out his shots effectively on clay and isn’t afraid to step into the court early. The biggest asset for Sinner in this matchup is confidence—he’s never lost to Ruud and dismantled him in their last meeting.
Ruud is a clay-court specialist with heavy topspin, especially on the forehand side, and excellent movement and point construction. His victory over Munar was a clean, professional effort that reflected his comfort on this surface. He excels when rallies are long, physical, and played on his terms, with deep, looping shots that push opponents back.
However, against Sinner, Ruud’s usual tools are often neutralized. Sinner doesn’t give him the time to set up his forehand, and his flatter, faster ball disrupts Ruud’s rhythm. To shift the dynamic, Ruud will need to serve exceptionally well, mix in more variety (especially short angles and net approaches), and extend rallies to test Sinner’s patience.
Ruud will come in motivated and will try to drag Sinner into longer exchanges, but the Italian’s firepower, confidence, and ability to dictate from both wings give him the upper hand. Unless Ruud can dramatically raise his aggression and convert early break chances, Sinner is likely to take control early and close it out in straight sets, feeding off the home crowd and booking a place in the semifinals.
Pick: Jannik Sinner to win 1st set | FanDuel
Wednesday, May 14 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zheng Qinwen
Aryna Sabalenka will face Zheng Qinwen in the Italian Open quarterfinals. Sabalenka is coming off a 6-1, 7-6 (10-8) win against Marta Kostyuk in the fourth round while Zheng beat Bianca Andreescu 7-5, 6-1 in the fourth round.
Sabalenka is 6-0 in six career matches against Zheng. Their last match was in the 2025 Miami Open quarterfinals and Sabalenka beat Zheng 6-2, 7-5. While Zheng has been playing clean, aggressive tennis, Sabalenka’s confidence and control in this matchup history suggest she remains firmly in command.
Sabalenka’s power game continues to be one of the most fearsome forces in women’s tennis. Her 6-1, 7-6 (10-8) win over Kostyuk showed not only her dominance from the baseline but also her mental toughness under pressure, especially in tight tiebreak moments.
Sabalenka’s serve remains a major weapon, and she’s increasingly shown better control of her groundstrokes—especially the forehand that used to break down under stress.
Her key strength against Zheng has been her ability to control the center of the court and take time away. When Sabalenka gets early leads in sets, she’s hard to reel in. The only opening for opponents is when Sabalenka’s unforced error count climbs—usually triggered by lapses in footwork or over-aggression.
Zheng continues to rise on tour with an athletic, aggressive game built around a strong forehand and solid serve. Her win over Andreescu was clinical—she absorbed pressure early and then ran away with the second set.
Zheng’s power is one of the few on tour that can potentially go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka’s, but her challenge has always been converting that into results under scoreboard pressure.
In all six previous matches against Sabalenka, Zheng has struggled to find answers when rallies stay on Sabalenka’s terms. She needs to serve at a high percentage, take chances early in rallies, and force Sabalenka to move side-to-side. Otherwise, the pace will eventually break her down.
Zheng is playing with confidence and has the physical tools to push Sabalenka, but history and matchup dynamics favor the world No. 1.
Sabalenka’s ability to neutralize Zheng’s strengths and consistently dictate points has proven too much in every previous encounter, and unless Zheng can dramatically raise her return game and tactical variety, the result is likely to be the same. Expect a competitive start, but Sabalenka’s control and experience in this rivalry should produce another victory.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win 1st set and win match | FanDuel
Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva
Coco Gauff battles Mirra Andreeva in the Italian Open quarterfinals. Gauff dominated Emma Raducanu 6-1, 6-2 in the fourth round while Andreeva beat Clara Tauson 5-7, 6-3, 6-2 in the fourth round.
Gauff is 3-0 in three career matches against Andreeva. Gauff recently beat Andreeva 7-5, 6-1 in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Madrid Open. That record, coupled with Gauff’s rising clay-court pedigree, makes her the clear favorite—though Andreeva continues to show grit and growth.
Gauff is combining raw athleticism with increasingly refined point construction. Her 6-1, 6-2 thrashing of Raducanu showcased her trademark court coverage and a much-improved forehand that’s becoming more consistent under pressure. Her backhand remains world-class—especially down the line—and her first serve sets the tone for most rallies.
On clay, Gauff is dangerous because she defends as well as anyone on tour while also being able to turn defense into offense quickly. Against Andreeva, she has historically controlled rallies with her depth and absorbed pace with minimal errors. The key for Gauff is to stay aggressive without getting impatient, especially in longer exchanges.
Andreeva is a crafty, intelligent player who mixes spins well and thrives in tactical exchanges. Her comeback win over Tauson showed mental toughness and strong conditioning, but it also exposed her vulnerability when facing sustained pressure on serve and on her backhand wing. She can redirect pace beautifully, but she still lacks a consistent weapon to end rallies against top-tier defenders like Gauff.
To challenge Gauff, Andreeva needs to play with more risk—especially on second serve returns—and use angles to open up the court. She can frustrate Gauff in longer rallies, but her serve will be under constant threat if she doesn’t vary placement or increase pace.
Andreeva is a rising star with tactical intelligence beyond her years, but Gauff’s power, speed, and confidence in this matchup make the difference. Gauff has found the blueprint to beat Andreeva: absorb early pressure, break down the backhand, and force rushed errors. Unless Andreeva can elevate her serve and finish points earlier than usual, expect Gauff to once again take control, advancing to the semifinals with authority.
Pick: Coco Gauff to win 1st set and win match | FanDuel
Tuesday, May 13 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Arthur Fils vs. Alexander Zverev
Arthur Fils will face Alexander Zverev in the fourth round of the Italian Open. Fils is coming off a 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 win against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round while Zverev beat Vilius Gaubas 6-4, 6-0 in the third round.
Zverev is 3-2 in five career matches against Fils. Fils won their last match 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round of the Miami Open this year, and Zverev won 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in the third round of the 2024 Rolex Paris Masters.
With both players gaining steam, this match is poised to be another tense three-set battle. Fils is a powerful and explosive shotmaker, and his comeback over Tsitsipas in the third round showed his ability to adapt, absorb pressure, and raise his level against elite opponents. His forehand is a major weapon, and he’s shown improved movement and rally tolerance, especially on slower surfaces like clay.
What sets Fils apart is his fearlessness—he doesn’t hesitate to go for his shots, especially on big points. However, that same aggression can lead to streaky performances and unforced errors when his timing is off. Against Zverev, he’ll need to stay patient and avoid going for low-percentage shots early in rallies.
Zverev is one of the most complete players on clay. His height gives him a reliable serve, and his ability to reset rallies with his backhand is a key reason he excels on slower courts. He absorbs pace effortlessly and can turn defense into offense with compact strokes and deep positioning.
Zverev’s biggest asset against Fils will be his consistency and ability to extend rallies without giving up court position. If he can neutralize Fils’ forehand and draw the Frenchman into long exchanges, he’ll put scoreboard pressure on the younger player. His clean win over Gaubas indicates sharp form and a fully engaged mindset.
Fils will have moments of brilliance and likely take a set with explosive shotmaking, but Zverev’s steadiness, tactical intelligence, and superior experience in clay-court battles should carry him through. Expect high-intensity exchanges, particularly in baseline rallies, but ultimately Zverev’s balance of defense and precision should tip the scales in a tightly contested three-set victory.
Pick: Fils to win at least one set | DraftKings
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Daniil Medvedev
Lorenzo Musetti battles Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round of the Italian Open. Musetti beat Brandon Nakashima 6-4, 6-3 in the third round while Medvedev advanced from the third round with a 6-4, 6-1 win against Alexei Popyrin.
Medvedev is 2-0 in two career matches against Musetti. Medvedev won their last match 6-3, 6-2 in the third round of the 2023 Cincinnati Open. Despite that, the slower clay surface in Rome could give Musetti a better chance to extend rallies and test Medvedev’s comfort on clay.
Musetti is one of the most stylish and versatile clay-court players on tour. His one-handed backhand, drop shots, and ability to vary spin and height make him a dangerous opponent, particularly on slow surfaces. His win over Nakashima was a textbook display of controlled aggression and point construction.
However, Musetti struggles against players who deny him time and rhythm—traits Medvedev excels at. The Italian will need to serve efficiently and keep Medvedev on the move with variety. If he becomes too passive or fails to finish points at the net, Medvedev will exploit his defensive court positioning.
Medvedev may not love clay, but his results tell a different story—especially in Rome, where he is the defending champion. His flat groundstrokes, unorthodox court positioning, and counterpunching skills are uniquely effective even on slower surfaces. His 6-4, 6-1 win over Popyrin showed he’s playing with confidence and rhythm.
Against Musetti, Medvedev’s depth and ability to consistently redirect pace will be key. He’ll likely look to neutralize Musetti’s backhand and stretch him wide on the forehand to open up the court. His return game is also a significant advantage, especially against a server who doesn’t produce a high number of free points.
While Musetti’s clay-court skills and creativity make him a crowd favorite in Rome, Medvedev’s tactical discipline, return pressure, and ability to turn defense into offense should allow him to control the match. Expect flashes of brilliance from Musetti, but Medvedev’s consistency and mental strength should carry him to another straight-sets victory.
Pick: Medvedev Over 11.5 games won | DraftKings
Jack Draper vs. Corentin Moutet
Jack Draper clashes with Corentin Moutet in the fourth round of the Italian Open. Draper is coming off a 6-4, 6-3 win against Vit Kopriva in the third round while Moutet beat Holger Rune 7-5, 5-7, 7-6 (7-4) in the third round. This will be the first career match between Draper and Moutet. This match pits Draper’s raw power and lefty baseline game against Moutet’s unorthodox creativity and clay-court guile.
Draper is a physically imposing left-hander with a big serve, heavy forehand, and an aggressive baseline approach. His win over Kopriva highlighted his ability to dictate play and finish points early—an advantage that can be critical on clay if used with precision. He moves well for his size and has steadily improved his patience in rallies.
However, Draper is still learning how to manage rhythm changes and defensive variety on clay. Against a disruptive player like Moutet, he’ll need to stay composed during long exchanges and avoid over-hitting when pulled out of his comfort zone. His serve and forehand are his weapons, but discipline will be just as important.
Moutet is one of the most unpredictable and crafty players on tour. His win over Rune was a masterclass in disruption—mixing slices, lobs, drop shots, and angles to keep the higher-seeded opponent off balance. He thrives on long rallies and mental warfare, using his hands and creativity to control tempo and expose movement weaknesses.
That said, Moutet’s lack of a big weapon can be costly when facing someone who serves and hits as hard as Draper. If Moutet can’t extend points or pull Draper off the baseline, he may struggle to withstand the pressure. Physical fatigue could also be a factor after his three-hour war with Rune.
Expect a tactical and emotional rollercoaster. Moutet will likely frustrate Draper at times and steal a set with his court craft, but Draper’s power, freshness, and ability to take time away should prove decisive in the third. As long as Draper keeps his unforced errors in check and serves well, he should power through a competitive and entertaining three-set win.
Pick: Over 8.5 games in the 1st set | DraftKings
Monday, May 12 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Elina Svitolina vs. Danielle Collins
Elina Svitolina battles Danielle Collins in the fourth round of the Italian Open. Svitolina beat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Hailey Baptiste on her way to this match while Collins beat Elena-Gabriela Ruse and upset defending champion Iga Swiatek 6-1, 7-5 in the third round.
Collins is 2-1 in three career matches against Svitolina. Svitolina won their last match, 6-2, 6-4 in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells this year, but Collins won 6-2, 6-2 in the first round of the 2023 National Bank Open.
With their head-to-head at 2-1 in favor of Collins and both having won convincingly in past encounters, this match looks poised to go the distance.
Collins is one of the most ferocious ball-strikers on tour. Her straight-sets demolition of Swiatek — especially on clay — proves just how dangerous she is when she finds rhythm. Her first-strike tennis, particularly off the return and forehand wing, puts opponents under constant pressure. Even on slower surfaces, Collins’ ability to flatten out shots and take time away is a massive advantage when she’s playing cleanly.
The key for Collins is staying disciplined. Her aggressive shot selection can occasionally backfire if she presses too early in rallies, but when her game is clicking—as it clearly was against Swiatek—she can overpower even the best defenders. Against Svitolina, she’ll aim to shorten points and deny rhythm.
Svitolina thrives on structure, consistency, and forcing opponents into long, grinding exchanges. Her defensive skills and court coverage remain elite, and she’s looked sharp throughout the week, dispatching opponents without much resistance. Her 6-2, 6-4 win over Collins earlier this year at Indian Wells showed that when she absorbs pressure and changes direction effectively, she can frustrate Collins into errors.
However, Svitolina’s serve can be a liability when rushed, and her lack of free points puts pressure on her to win long rallies repeatedly. If Collins is dictating play early, Svitolina will need to be aggressive with her backhand and take chances stepping inside the baseline—something that doesn’t come naturally to her but will be essential here.
Svitolina’s discipline and fitness make her a tough out on clay, but Collins’ firepower, especially after dismantling the tournament’s defending champion, gives her the edge in a best-of-three scenario. Expect Svitolina to push this to a deciding set, but Collins’ relentless aggression and confidence from her Swiatek win should carry her over the line in a tightly contested three-setter.
Pick: Over 21.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
Jasmine Paolini vs. Jelena Ostapenko
Jasmine Paolini will face Jelena Ostapenko in the fourth round of the Italian Open. Jasmine Paolini has wins against Lulu Sun and Ons Jabeur in this tournament while Ostapenko beat Rebecca Sramkova and Laura Siegemund (Walkover).
Ostapenko is 2-1 in three career matches against Paolini. Ostapenko won their last match, 6-2, 6-2 in the third round of the Qatar Total Energies Open this year. That said, conditions on Roman clay and Paolini’s momentum suggest a more competitive match this time.
Paolini is one of the most agile and tenacious players on tour. Her clay-court acumen, quick footwork, and ability to construct points with a mix of topspin and angles make her dangerous on slower surfaces. Her win over Jabeur showcased improved shot tolerance and composure under pressure, especially when defending against unpredictable shotmakers.
What she lacks in raw power, Paolini makes up for in consistency and court craft. However, against a player like Ostapenko, who can hit through defenses and take time away, Paolini must maintain high first-serve percentages and be aggressive when opportunities arise. If she plays too passively, Ostapenko will dictate.
Ostapenko is the ultimate feast-or-famine player. She hits every shot with full intent, especially on the return and her cross-court forehand. When she’s locked in, she can blow opponents off the court, as she did against Paolini in Qatar. Her walkover in the previous round means she’ll be the fresher of the two, which could be a factor in a physically demanding clay battle.
However, inconsistency remains Ostapenko’s biggest weakness. Her unforced error count can pile up quickly if her timing is off or if she’s drawn into extended rallies. Paolini’s ability to absorb pace and force Ostapenko to hit extra balls will test the Latvian’s patience and shot selection.
Paolini’s form and home-crowd energy could push this to three sets, and her clay-court strengths will keep her competitive. But Ostapenko’s explosiveness and ability to dominate off the baseline should give her the edge in the deciding moments. Expect a streaky match full of momentum swings.
Pick: Both players to win a set | FanDuel
Matteo Berrettini vs. Casper Ruud
Matteo Berrettini clashes with Casper Ruud in the third round of the Italian Open. Berrettini is coming off a 6-4, 7-6 (7-0) win against Jacob Fearnley in the third round while Ruud beat Alexander Bublik 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in the second round.
Ruud is 4-3 in seven career matches against Berrettini. Berrettini won their last match 6-4, 6-4 in the Round Robin of the 2023 United Cup. Ruud won 6-1, 6-4. 7-6 (7-4) in the quarterfinals of the 2022 US Open.
Berrettini’s game is tailor-made for faster surfaces, but he’s proven capable on clay, particularly when he’s serving well and setting up his heavy forehand. His 6-4, 7-6 (7-0) win over Fearnley showed that he’s finding rhythm on serve—he didn’t drop a point in the tiebreak—and his forehand remains a reliable weapon.
However, Berrettini’s movement on clay can be exposed, especially against a player like Ruud who thrives in long rallies and targets the backhand corner relentlessly. For Berrettini to win, he must dictate with his serve-forehand combo, keep points short, and avoid extended baseline exchanges.
Ruud is one of the most consistent clay-court players on tour, with a heavy topspin forehand, solid two-handed backhand, and elite movement. His win over Bublik required physical and mental endurance, especially after dropping the second set. Ruud excels at constructing points patiently and exploiting opponent weaknesses—particularly backhands and fitness under pressure.
Against Berrettini, Ruud will look to stretch rallies and pull the Italian wide to the backhand side. He’ll aim to outlast Berrettini physically and force errors through relentless consistency. His comfort on clay and ability to absorb pace make him a dangerous matchup for Berrettini over three sets.
Berrettini is likely to start strong, feeding off the home crowd and his serve, taking the first set. But over time, Ruud’s clay-court stamina, rally tolerance, and ability to wear opponents down should allow him to flip the match. Expect a tight three-setter.
Pick: Casper Ruud wins the match and both players win a set | FanDuel
Sunday, May 11 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sofia Kenin
Aryna Sabalenka battles Sofia Kenin in the third round of the Italian Open. Aryna Sabalenka beat Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 6-2 in the second round while Kenin is coming off a 6-3, 6-0 win against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the second round.
Sabalenka is 3-1 in four career matches against Kenin. Sabalenka won their last match, 6-1, 6-2 in the first round of the 2023 China Open.
This match promises to be a battle between power and precision, but recent form and matchup history heavily favor Sabalenka to come out on top once again.
Sabalenka is one of the most dominant baseline players in the women’s game, known for her explosive serve, heavy groundstrokes, and relentless aggression. She has the ability to take control early and never let up, and she enters this matchup with a clear mental and tactical edge.
On clay, while not her best surface, Sabalenka has grown increasingly comfortable sliding into her power game. Her kick serve remains an asset, helping her generate short balls to dictate with her forehand. If she limits unforced errors and maintains depth on her return games, she can neutralize Kenin’s attempts to redirect pace.
Kenin is a crafty player with sharp court awareness, clean technique, and the ability to absorb and redirect pace effectively. She’s locked in and striking with confidence.
That said, against a power hitter like Sabalenka, Kenin’s compact swings and reactive baseline game often get overwhelmed unless she can consistently vary spins and trajectories to pull Sabalenka off balance. The head-to-head tells the story — when Sabalenka is on, Kenin struggles to hold serve or extend rallies long enough to draw errors.
Kenin has the tools to frustrate aggressive players on slower courts, but Sabalenka’s recent form and prior dominance in their matchups suggest a quick and authoritative win. Unless Sabalenka’s power misfires badly, she should win this in straight sets with room to spare.
Pick: Under 19.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
Emma Raducanu vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Emma Raducanu faces Veronika Kudermetova in the third round of the Italian Open. Raducanu dominated Jil Teichmann 6-2, 6-2 in the second round while Kudermetova beat Amanda Anisimova 7-6 (7-5), 7-5 in the second round. This will be the first match between Raducanu and Kudermetova.
Based on current form and playing styles, this match is likely to feature several momentum swings, but Raducanu’s cleaner path to this point and her ability to control points early may give her the edge.
Raducanu is showing renewed sharpness and confidence. Her movement on clay has improved, and her ability to take the ball early and redirect pace is especially effective on slower courts where timing and footwork are critical.
Raducanu thrives when she gets into rhythm behind her backhand, which remains her most reliable shot in extended rallies. Her serve, while not a major weapon, has looked steady, and she’s doing well to limit double faults and protect her service games.
Against Kudermetova, Raducanu will likely look to step inside the baseline and force errors by rushing her opponent, especially on second serves.
Kudermetova is a more explosive player, with a flatter, heavier ball off both wings and a strong first serve. She has both resilience in tight moments and tendency to let matches get complicated. Kudermetova thrives when she’s dictating with her forehand, but she can struggle with consistency, especially when opponents mix pace and change direction often.
On clay, Kudermetova’s aggressive baseline game can backfire if she’s forced to play longer rallies or if her movement breaks down late in sets. Against a player like Raducanu who can neutralize power and turn defense into offense, Kudermetova will need to find a balance between patience and aggression.
Expect Raducanu to frustrate Kudermetova with depth, angles, and her ability to absorb pressure. Kudermetova’s power will win her a set, but Raducanu’s tactical awareness and steadier baseline game on clay should help her close it out in three.
Pick: Over 21.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
Magdalena Frech vs. Zheng Qinwen
Magdalena Frech clashes with Zheng Qinwen in the third round of the Italian Open. Frech beat Victoria Azarenka 7-5, 6-4 in the second round while Zheng is coming off a 6-1, 6-4 win against Olga Danilovic in the second round.
Frech and Zheng are 1-1 in two career matches. Zheng won the last match, 6-1, 7-5 in the second round of the 2024 Cincinnati Open, and Frech beat Zheng 6-3, 6-0 in the first round of the 2022 Lexus Eastbourne Open.
Both players carrying momentum from impressive wins in the second round, but based on current form, surface suitability, and tactical tendencies, this match leans toward Zheng’s power game eventually overpowering Frech’s more measured, counterpunching style—but not without a battle.
Frech just had one of the most composed performances of her season. She used smart shot placement, consistent depth, and great anticipation to frustrate Azarenka, a former Grand Slam champion. Her strengths lie in her court coverage, variety, and ability to redirect pace without giving opponents many free points.
That said, Frech lacks a true weapon—her serve is attackable, and she often relies on her opponent to make mistakes rather than forcing the issue herself. On clay, her defensive skills play up, but she will be under pressure to withstand Zheng’s power and find creative ways to extend rallies without falling short on offense.
Zheng has one of the most dangerous upside games on tour, and her win against Danilovic showed how quickly she can impose herself when finding rhythm. Her explosive forehand, aggressive return game, and ability to take the ball early make her a threat on any surface—even clay, where she has made notable improvements in point construction.
The key for Zheng is patience. If she tries to end points too early or rushes through her service games, she risks letting a player like Frech hang around. But if she controls the tempo and uses her athleticism to stay engaged in rallies, she’ll gradually break Frech down, especially on second serve returns and in extended baseline exchanges.
Frech will likely steal a set early by absorbing pressure and staying consistent while Zheng settles into the match. But Zheng’s power and depth should take over as she adjusts her patterns and finds more aggressive court positioning.
Pick: Over 19.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
Saturday, May 10 Preview
Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Italian Open:
Danielle Collins vs. Iga Swiatek
Danielle Collins battles Iga Swiatek in the third round of the Italian Open. Collins is coming off a 6-3, 6-3 win against Elena-Gabriela Ruse in the second round. Swiatek beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-1, 6-0 in the second round.
Swiatek is 7-1 in eight career matches against Collins. They last met in the quarterfinals of the Olympic Games in Paris last year and Swiatek was leading 6-2, 1-6, 4-1 when Collins retired after taking a medical timeout in the third set.
Swiatek is widely regarded as one of the best clay court players in the world right now, with unmatched movement, topspin-heavy forehands, and an elite return game. Her ability to open the court with angles and dictate rallies from the baseline is especially effective on slower surfaces like Rome’s red clay. She’s also shown an ability to neutralize big hitters like Collins with her precise depth and defensive versatility.
One of Swiatek’s biggest weapons is her ability to absorb and redirect power, making it difficult for opponents to hit through her unless they sustain high-risk aggression over multiple sets. Her only vulnerability in this matchup is when she faces a red-hot shotmaker early in sets—Collins has had spurts of success when she’s stepped inside the baseline and attacked early.
Collins is known for her fierce competitiveness and aggressive baseline style, often taking the ball early and hitting flat, penetrating shots. Her ability to disrupt rhythm with pace and depth gives her a puncher’s chance against anyone. When her serve and first-strike forehand are landing, she can overwhelm even elite defenders.
However, Collins’ game depends heavily on her timing and physical conditioning. She has struggled to maintain her high-octane level deep into matches, especially on clay, where longer rallies wear down her quick-strike efficiency. Her retirement against Swiatek in their Olympic clash, when trailing 4-1 in the third, highlighted both her physical fragility and Swiatek’s ability to grind her down.
While Collins is dangerous and has taken sets off Swiatek in the past, the Polish star’s superior consistency, athleticism, and clay court pedigree make her the likely winner once again. Unless Collins redlines for an extended stretch, Swiatek should control the tempo and cruise into the next round in straight sets.
Pick: Iga Swiatek to win 1st set and win match | FanDuel
Elise Mertens vs. Jessica Pegula
Elise Mertens will face Jessica Pegula in the third round of the Italian Open. Mertens beat Suzan Lamens 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 in the second round. Pegula is coming off a 6-4, 6-2 win against Ashlyn Krueger in the second round.
Elise Mertens is 3-1 in four career matches against Pegula, but Pegula won the last meeting, 6-4, 6-2 in the second round of the 2025 Australian Open.
Mertens is one of the most versatile and technically sound players on the WTA Tour. Her game is built around consistency, point construction, and exceptional court coverage. She thrives in extended rallies and has the defensive skills to frustrate offensive-minded opponents. That was evident in her second-round comeback win over Lamens, where she adjusted mid-match and wore her opponent down over three sets.
However, Mertens lacks the raw power or a reliable finishing shot to control matches against elite opponents. On clay, her grinding baseline style can be effective, but when facing a player like Pegula who can take time away with early ball striking, Mertens often gets pushed into a reactive role. That tendency was exposed in their last meeting in Melbourne and could resurface again if Pegula maintains depth and pace.
Pegula brings a clean, no-frills brand of tennis anchored by early ball contact, sound technique, and a workhorse mentality. Her ability to strike down the line off both wings and flatten out her backhand is particularly effective against counterpunchers. She was clinical in her 6-4, 6-2 win over Krueger, imposing her pace from the baseline and keeping points short.
Pegula’s weakness lies in her movement and comfort on slower surfaces. While she has steadily improved on clay, she can still be drawn into physical rallies that test her stamina and footwork. If she’s not aggressive enough early in sets, she risks letting players like Mertens hang around and turn the match into a physical grind.
Although Mertens owns the better head-to-head, Pegula enters this match with momentum and the mental edge from her recent victory. Mertens will likely take the opening set with her clay-court consistency, but Pegula’s sharper baseline weapons and superior timing should carry her through the final two sets. Expect a slow-burning match that builds into a physical battle.
Pick: Over 21.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
Taylor Fritz vs. Marcos Giron
Taylor Fritz clashes with Marcos Giron in the second round of the Italian Open. Fritz received a bye in the first round. He recently beat Christopher O’Connell and Benjamin Bonzi in the Madrid Open before losing 5-7, 4-6 in the fourth round against Casper Ruud.
Giron is coming off a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win against Gabriel Diallo in the first round of this tournament.
Fritz is 4-1 in five career matches against Giron. They last met in the 2024 Delray Beach Open semifinals and Fritz won 7-6 (10-8), 6-2.
Fritz’s powerful first serve and heavy forehand are his signature weapons, both of which translate surprisingly well to clay due to his ability to flatten out short balls and dictate play early in rallies. He’s shown consistent improvement on slower surfaces, evidenced by wins over O’Connell and Bonzi in Madrid before a respectable loss to clay-savvy Ruud.
His primary weakness is movement on clay—he’s not as agile sliding into shots or recovering wide as the top-tier clay specialists. Against more physical or defensive grinders, this can leave him vulnerable in extended rallies. But against an opponent like Giron who doesn’t possess overwhelming topspin or variety, Fritz’s raw power and timing should hold up well.
Giron is a scrappy baseliner who thrives in neutral-to-defensive exchanges. He can redirect pace and is effective at extending rallies with deep, consistent groundstrokes. His comeback win over Diallo, where he flipped the script after dropping the opening set, underscores his grit and stamina.
However, Giron lacks a true finishing shot and struggles to create offense consistently, especially against players who serve big and hit through the court. His 1-4 record against Fritz reflects that challenge—he can hang in early, but over time, Fritz tends to overpower him and break down his defenses.
Giron may push Fritz early, particularly if he can draw out rallies and target Fritz’s lateral movement on clay. But Fritz’s serve and forehand should ultimately prove too much, especially if he continues to show the same form he had in Madrid.
Pick: Over 21.5 Total Match Games | FanDuel
MORE CONTENT:
NBA | MLB | NHL | PGA | SOC | CS2 | UFC
Tennis DFS & Betting – Tips For Picking Player Props
Tennis player props can offer sharp bettors a profitable edge — if they know where to look. Unlike traditional match odds, props let you isolate specific outcomes like total aces, double faults, number of sets won, or even individual set winners. But without the right approach, it’s easy to get burned.
Here’s how to improve your tennis props strategy and make sharper bets.
Know the Surface, Know the Player
Not all courts are created equal — and that matters a lot when betting tennis props. Surface speed plays a huge role in player performance. Here’s what to watch:
- Grass: Fastest surface, favors big servers (think: Alexander Zverev).
- Hard Court: Balanced conditions, but bounce varies between venues.
- Clay: Slows the game down, rewards grinders and defensive baseliners.
If you’re betting on props like total aces or service games won, the surface has to be part of your model. Someone like Aryna Sabalenka might average 12 aces on grass but just 6 on clay.
Head-to-Head Matchups Tell a Story
Past results between two players aren’t just trivia — they’re data points. When two players have history, check these:
- Who wins more service games?
- Are matches going the distance?
- Is there a pattern in break points converted?
If a matchup regularly produces long three-setters, there’s value in overs on total games, sets played, or player to win a set props.
Serve and Return Metrics Are Gold
If you’re betting tennis props, serve/return stats should be your bread and butter. Focus on:
- First Serve %
- Service points won %
- Break points saved
- Return games won
Aces and double faults are the obvious outputs, but don’t overlook the deeper numbers. For example, a player with a strong second serve win percentage can survive high-pressure moments — making them more reliable for overs on games won.
Watch for Fatigue and Injury Trends
Tennis players grind through long seasons, and fatigue is real. That’s where sharp bettors thrive:
- Back unders if a player has gone deep in consecutive tournaments.
- Fade players coming off five-set marathons, especially in humid/hard conditions.
- Track players with nagging injuries — especially those affecting serve motion.
These physical factors are rarely priced into prop markets early enough. Use them to your advantage.
Track Line Movement and Market Sentiment
Props are often softer than moneyline markets, but they do move — especially around majors. Look at:
- Opening lines vs. closing lines
- Movement correlated with weather changes (like wind, which kills serve props)
- Public vs. sharp action (some sportsbooks release prop bet splits)
When totals move a full game or ace props tick a few serves up or down, that tells you where the smart money is leaning.
Target Lesser-Known Players and Early Rounds
Books aren’t as sharp when it comes to Challenger-level guys or lesser-known WTA matchups. If you’ve done your homework, there’s more value betting:
- Props in first-round matches, especially when talent is lopsided.
- Up-and-comers with elite junior stats who haven’t hit the mainstream yet.
- Niche markets during smaller ATP 250 and WTA International events.
You won’t get the same prop depth as Grand Slams, but the lines will often be beatable.
Weather, Altitude and Conditions Matter
Fast courts in Mexico City? Slower ones in Miami humidity? Props like service holds and aces are tied to conditions:
- High altitude = faster conditions = more aces, shorter rallies.
- Windy conditions = fewer clean service games = more breaks.
Always factor in the external conditions. They don’t show up on the stat sheet — but they impact everything.
Props Are About Context, Not Just Stats
Tennis props aren’t about blindly riding numbers. It’s about context — surfaces, opponents, mental game, fitness, and even the crowd. When you understand the full picture, your edge increases exponentially.
So stop chasing volume plays on name-brand players and start handicapping props like a pro. The next time you see a “Player A Over 8.5 Aces” market? You’ll know how to break it down.
Most Popular Tennis Props & Betting Markets
See below for an overview of all of the most popular markets in tennis. Most of these are self-explanatory, and it should be noted that this is not a complete list of every type out there.
- Games Won
- Games Lost
- Sets Won
- Sets Lost
- Games Played
- Aces
- Breakpoints Won
