Last-touchdown scorer props are all about guessing who’s going to finish the game with the last trip to the end zone. It sounds simple, but it’s one of the trickiest and most entertaining bets you can make.
What makes these bets fun is also what makes them tough. You need to consider how the game might conclude, which players are typically called upon near the end, and how the odds favor those roles. Sometimes it’s the big names, sometimes it’s the guys you barely notice until crunch time.
Below, we give you our expert picks for last touchdown scorer props that we have our eye on for this week, followed by a list of the players most likely to score the last touchdown tonight.
We then walk you through the best books to place your bets, how the different markets work, what really drives the last score, and how you can give yourself a better shot at hitting some winning bets.
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Where to bet on last touchdown scorer props?
The following sportsbooks give you plenty of ways to bet on last touchdown scorer props.
Just keep in mind that the smart move is always to shop around and check the odds and any available promos at multiple books!
The odds can swing a lot from one book to the next, and you never know what sign-up bonuses, returning customer bonuses, or NFL-specific one-off bonuses any sportsbook may currently have on offer.
What are the last TD prop formats, odds & win conditions?
Here’s a quick comparison table of the main last-TD bet types that shows you what the bet actually asks you to predict, how the book settles it, and the kind of odds you’ll usually see.
After this table, the rest of the article digs into more detail on how each prop type really works.
| Bet Type | Description | Typical Odds | Win Conditions | Loss Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer – Full Game | Bet on a specific player to score the final touchdown of the game, typically including overtime. | +300 to +800 | Your chosen player scores the last TD of the game. If no touchdown is scored, the bet is void, or “No TD” market applies, depending on the books rules. | Any other player scores the last TD, or no touchdown is scored and no “No TD” market was selected. |
| Team to Score Last Touchdown | Bet on which team will score the game’s final touchdown. | -200 to +150 | The team you selected scores the last TD of the game. | The other team scores the last TD, or no touchdown is scored. |
| Method of Last Touchdown | Bet on HOW the final TD will be scored. Either: rushing, receiving, defensive, or special teams. | 150 to +5000 | The last TD matches your chosen scoring method. | The last TD is by a different method to the one you chose, or no touchdown is scored. |
| Last Touchdown by Position Group | Bet on the position group of the player who scores the last TD. Either: RB, WR, TE, QB, Defense/Special Teams. | +300 to +3000 | The final TD is scored by a player in your chosen position group. | A player from another position group scores the last TD, or no touchdown is scored. |
| Team-Specific Last Touchdown Scorer | Pick a player to score the last TD for their team, regardless of whether it's the final TD of the game. | +300 to +1000 | Your chosen player scores the last TD for his team. | Another player scores the team’s final TD, or the team fails to score a touchdown. |
How do player-based last touchdown scorer props work?
Player-based last touchdown props are all about predicting which player will score the final touchdown in a game. You’re not limited to one style of bet either! You can take a straight pick, keep it team-specific, or roll it into a same-game parlay if you want to push the odds higher.
The main appeal of this type of prop bet is the higher-than-normal odds you can expect. Even the big-name stars often sit around +400 to +700 because there’s only one last touchdown in the game, and late scoring is hard and messy to predict. But when you do nail it, the payout feels huge.
The trick is trying to picture how the game winds down. Who’s usually on the field in the red-zone? Who does the coach trust during crunch time? If you can read the flow of those final drives, you might be able to turn a small bet into a big win.
How does a standard last touchdown scorer prop work?
This is the purest version of the last TD prop bet, where you just pick the exact player you think gets the final touchdown of the night.
Because there’s only one winner, the odds don’t come cheap. Favorites usually open at odds of +500 or longer.
It’s not easy to hit because game flow matters so much. Teams protecting a lead finish the majority of their last red-zone trips with a run, while trailing teams only manage that perhaps a quarter of the time. That’s why these bets are both high-risk and high-reward; however, if you read the patterns correctly, you can tilt things in your favor.
What you want to watch: Who gets the ball near the goal-line, how coaches rotate players late, and whether the team is killing time or chasing points. Power backs often get the call to close out wins. And when urgency spikes, slot receivers and tight ends suddenly see more targets. Line up the game situation with the player’s role, and you can find some value.
Example: Say the Bengals are favored over the Browns. Joe Mixon at +550 makes sense because he handled approx. 75% of their carries inside the five last season. If Cincinnati’s ahead late, odds are he’s the guy finishing it off.
How do team-specific last touchdown scorer props work?
This one narrows the field a bit, where instead of picking a player from all 22 guys on the field, you just choose which player scores last between the 11 players on one team. This way, your pick is only competing against his teammates, not both rosters. The odds aren’t quite as long, but they can still be solid.
Finding value here is about knowing a teams offensive tendencies, what the team likes to do. Does the offense pound the ball near the goal-line, like Baltimore running it a large percentage of the time in the red-zone? Or do they funnel looks to tight ends, like Kansas City, where TEs account for over 40% of their touchdowns?
And don’t assume the “last” touchdown always happens in the final minutes. Sometimes the last one comes in the third quarter, and the rest of the game is field goals and punts. Knowing drive patterns and player usage throughout the game helps.
Example: If the Lions are playing the Packers, Detroit often relies on Jahmyr Gibbs inside the 10-yard line. Listed at +350 as the team’s last scorer, he’s a strong play. The Lions average nearly three touchdowns a game, and Gibbs handles just over 50% of their red-zone carries.
How do same-game parlay combos work for last TD props?
Same-game parlays allow you to tie your last touchdown pick to other outcomes, such as who wins, the total points scored, or a quarterback’s yardage. The odds get multiplied together, so even a small parlay can blow up into a big payday.
A simple 3-leg combo might pay 12-to-1 or more. Of course, the catch is that every extra leg makes the bet much harder to hit.
The secret to making a good parlay is keeping the story logical. Stack bets that make sense together! If you think a power back scores last, pairing that with his team winning by a small margin is consistent. But if you start adding random longshots that don’t fit, your ticket is toast.
Stick to two or three legs max. Any more than that (say, 5 or 6) and your chances of hitting drop off dramatically, and the losing streaks can drag on for what feels like hundreds of bets before one lands. The safer play is to keep it short and make sure the legs you do pick actually match how you expect the game to unfold..
Example: A bettor might take Isiah Pacheco to score the last TD at +600, the Chiefs to win by 1–6 points, and Mahomes to throw for over 250 yards. If KC jumps ahead with the passing game and leans on Pacheco late, all three line up nicely, and the payout could be huge because the story holds together.
Each of these props can work, but they all require some sense of how a game actually plays out. It’s not about spraying long shots everywhere. The edge comes from knowing player roles, red-zone usage, and how coaches call plays as the game winds down.
What are team and game-based touchdown prop types?
Instead of guessing on a single player, these props zoom out to consider an entire team. They’re more about the bigger picture, such as which team scores last, how the touchdown happens, or what type of player finishes it.
The three main versions are:
- Pick the team that scores last.
- Guess whether the TD comes on a run, pass, or defense/special-teams.
- Bet on the position group (RB, WR, TE, etc.) that scores the final touchdown.
If you’re good at reading team tendencies and how games flow, these can give you a nice edge without the needle-in-a-haystack feel of player-only props.
Let’s take a little deeper look at each of those 3 bet types.
Which team scores the final touchdown?
This prop keeps it simple! Instead of guessing the exact player, you just pick which team you think will score the last touchdown. In tight games, the odds typically range from -150 to +150 either way, but if one team is a significant favorite, the line extends further.
The key to finding value here is game flow. Teams that are behind in the final minutes throw the ball almost every snap, while teams protecting a lead usually run to chew up the clock. Some coaches stay aggressive no matter the score, others go ultra-safe. Red-zone efficiency, timeouts, and even special-teams plays can swing who gets the last touchdown.
So look at how each team behaves late in games. Do they collapse or stay steady? Do they pile on with garbage-time scores or just try to survive?
Example: The Bills are -130 to score last against the Jets. Buffalo is known for staying aggressive late. With a two-score lead, they keep throwing, and Josh Allen hits Dalton Kincaid for a short touchdown in the final minutes. That cashes the bet for anyone backing Buffalo to score last.
Method of last touchdown scored prop bet
This version of last TD prop bet asks you to call HOW the last touchdown happens, either rushing play, passing play, defensive return, or something else.
It’s not just about the score, it’s about the style. Team strategy, the scoreboard, field position, and even weather all feed into it.
A pass-heavy team that’s trailing in the final two minutes is almost always going to throw more, and a huge chunk of those passes are aimed straight at the end zone. On the flip side, a run-first team that’s ahead is likely to grind the clock and pound it in on the ground to protect their lead.
Teams that are down big sometimes get desperate and chuck it deep, which can just as easily turn into a pick-six the other way.
Weather can also play a role, as unfavorable conditions make the passing game less effective, giving rushing TDs the edge.
The smart way to bet this market is to study late-game tendencies. Who gets the ball near the goal-line, and how do they use it? Do they keep the gas on, or do they turtle up and play safe?
Example: The Chiefs are nursing a lead over the Vikings. Andy Reid doesn’t back off, Mahomes keeps throwing, and he finds Rashee Rice on a slant for the final score. That wins the passing-TD prop at +180, beating out the +140 favorite on a rushing TD.
How does the final touchdown by position group bet work?
Here, you’re betting on the type of player who scores the last touchdown, either a running back, wide receiver, tight end, quarterback, or even a defense/special-teams player. You don’t need the exact name, just the position.
It’s a good choice if you’re not sure who will be on the field, but you’ve got a feel for how a team tends to finish drives.
Offensive identity is everything. If a team likes to run, chances are they’ll lean on their backs to close it out. A pass-first team is more likely to look at a wideout or tight end when it matters. You can usually tell from the formation, too. Stack the line with a couple of tight ends and you’re probably looking at a run or a quick throw their way. Spread everyone out, and the ball’s usually headed to a receiver in space.
Injuries can also significantly impact the outcome. If a starter goes out, a backup might step into a big role at the end to score. And don’t forget defense and special teams because chaos late in the game can just as easily end with a fumble return or a pick-six.
The edge comes from knowing depth charts, play-calling habits, and who gets the high-leverage touches in the red-zone when it matters most.
Example: With McCaffrey sidelined, the Niners went back to Elijah Mitchell, the guy they usually trust to carry the load when the star’s not out there. Late against the Packers, they lined up with two backs, gave him the ball inside the five, and he forced his way over the line. That’s the kind of play that makes the running back group prop cash at around +250.
How do parlay and combo bets work for last TD props?
A parlay just means stacking a few bets together so the odds multiply.
Say you link one at +600, another at +500, and a third at +700. Suddenly, the ticket shows 100-to-1 for the combined parlay bet. It looks great on paper, but you have to remember that every leg has to win or the whole bet lose,s and you get nothing.
You can tie last-touchdown bets into a parlay if you wish, but it’s a risky move. Every extra pick you add just gives you another way to lose, and if one of them goes wrong, the whole thing is toast.
The big payout numbers might catch your eye, but those crazy 100-to-1 tickets almost never come through.
The best way to think about parlays is: Would you be happy betting each leg on its own? If the answer’s no, then it doesn’t belong in your parlay.
It’s not about tossing a bunch of longshots together just because the return looks huge. The only time parlays make sense is when each part actually stands up on its own. Otherwise, you’re just handing money back to the book.
Avoid overlap and risky correlation in TD parlays
The biggest mistake people make is stacking picks that all rely on the same outcome.
For example, betting on “Chiefs score last TD” and “Travis Kelce scores last TD” is pointless, because if Kelce scores, the Chiefs will also score. You’ve doubled your risk without adding real value.
Instead, keep the legs independent. Mix different games or different outcomes.
Say “Player X scores last in-game A” with “Under 45 points in-game B.” That way, if one leg goes sideways, it doesn’t automatically kill the other. The same applies to position props! Don’t tie a QB’s last-TD pick to that team’s overall total. Keep them separate.
How to build logical, strategic TD combo bets?
Good parlay strategy ties together ideas that make sense without being redundant.
For example, “Kareem Hunt last TD” paired with “Chiefs moneyline” works as they’re connected, but one doesn’t guarantee the other.
Another sharp combo is matching a player prop with a spread.
If the Titans are expected to keep it close, something like “Derrick Henry last TD” with “Titans +7.5” fits their usual game script. The bets complement each other without being tied to the same exact play.
And the golden rule: if you wouldn’t make a pick by itself, don’t shove it into a parlay.
Risk management strategies for last TD parlays
Parlays can quickly get out of hand. Don’t overload them with long shots. One +1200 pick is plenty. Stack three of them, and you’re basically playing the lottery. Stick to two or three legs with realistic outcomes.
Same-game combos are especially dangerous because they lean on one script. If the game goes differently than expected, you’re sunk.
Look for value where the odds don’t quite match reality. A backup running back at +1000 who actually gets most of the red-zone work is better value than a WR1 at +500 in a tough matchup. Build around those edges.
Handled carefully, these parlays can hit big, but only if you keep them grounded.
Live betting last TD scorer props during games
Some sportsbooks keep the last-TD market open until the final whistle, so you don’t have to lock in your bet before kickoff and can place live bets during the game.
This means you can react to what’s actually happening, be that substitutions, game flow, or even who’s limping off the field. Odds shift constantly, and if you’re sharp, you might be able to catch value before the book adjusts the odds.
Pregame odds don’t really move, but once the game starts, the lines react to what’s happening on the field.
If a backup running back comes in during the fourth quarter, his price can drop fast as the book adjusts. And when an offense gets inside the red-zone, the short-yardage guy almost always sees his odds tighten. Even small things like a timeout, the down-and-distance, or which players are in the huddle can swing the number.
Live props shift constantly, and the people who stay alert can sometimes spot the value before it’s gone.
What drives live odds changes?
Live odds flip after almost every play. If a team’s down two scores, they’re going to throw nearly every down, so books shorten the odds on receivers and tight ends. If a team’s up late, running backs suddenly become the favorites.
Substitutions matter just as much. One guy hobbling to the sideline can completely change the board. Spot it before the books do, and you’ve got the edge.
Formations tell their own story, too. Heavy sets near the goal line usually mean a power run or a tight end leak-out. Empty formations point to slot receivers and quick throws. Coaches tend to stick to their usual red-zone habits, even late.
Conclusion
That just about covers how last-TD props work and the different ways you can play them. T
hese bets have a different kind of buzz than first-TD markets, because instead of all the action coming right out of the gate, you’re locked in until the very end. Every late drive, every substitution, every snap in crunch time feels like it could flip the outcome.
The rules aren’t always the same across books, so make sure you know how yours settles things like overtime or defensive scores before you jump in. After that, it’s about reading the flow, picking your spots, and letting the game play out.
We’ve shared our takes up top, so now it’s just a matter of watching it unfold and hoping the ball ends up where we need it when it matters most.
I wish us all luck! Here’s to our guys closing the game with the final touchdown of the night.
