Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Wednesday’s slate of 12 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 16.
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Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The Prop: 8.5 assists (at Washington)
The Odds: Over -145/Under +110
Wednesday’s odds lean heavily toward the Over on Jokic’s assist total. But from our perspective, this has the makings of a 50-50 wager.
Counting his last eight road games, Jokic surpassed tonight’s 8.5 total only three times — 11 at Portland, 9 at Sacramento, and 11 at Boston.
For that eight-game road stretch, Jokic averaged 8.5 dimes per outings, matching DraftKings’ total.
Charting his last 11 encounters with Eastern Conference foes, the reigning NBA MVP is averaging 8.7 assists. However, for this period, Jokic posted nine-plus assists only four times (11, 10, 15, and 9).
Plus, the Wizards are allowing the seventh-fewest assists this season (23.3 per game).
As a tiebreaking measure, here are two positives for Over bettors:
Jokic (idle Tuesday) will be playing on sufficient rest tonight.
And he tallied nine assists versus Washington on Dec. 13 … along with 28 points and 19 rebounds.
Charlotte Hornets: PG LaMelo Ball
The Prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (vs. Atlanta)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
Ball, who is averaging 19.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 7.3 apg in his sophomore year, has quickly evolved into a regular triple-double threat. But how does that translate to his long-range shooting prowess?
Charting his last 14 games, Ball is shooting 40.2 percent from beyond the arc — considerably higher than his seasonal rate of 36.8%.
During this prolific stretch, Ball buried more than three 3-pointers eight times (5, 7, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4, and 5 makes). As a bonus, the 20-year-old attempted eight or more 3-pointers eight times.
In other words, Ball has already become comfortable with being a volume shooter for the NBA’s second-highest-scoring team (114.9 ppg). On top of that, tonight’s opponent (Atlanta) allows the sixth-most made 3-pointers (13.0 per game) while ranking 28th in 3-point defense (36.5%).
For the Under crowd involving Wednesday’s total, Ball (idle Tuesday) is only 7 of 24 from long distance in four lifetime meetings with Atlanta, including an 0 for 8 dud on Jan. 23.
New York Knicks: PF Julius Randle
The Prop: 26.5 points (vs. Portland)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -125
Randle hasn’t played at home since Feb. 27, when he scored only 16 points against the Sixers. And yet, there’s still optimism for the Kentucky product eclipsing Wednesday’s total. Here’s why:
Randle has averaged 33.5 points in his last four games (all on the road), rolling for 46, 36 26, and 26 points.
Last month, Randle posted 30-plus points in consecutive home outings (30 vs. Oklahoma City, 31 vs. Brooklyn), while cumulatively shooting 43.8 percent from the field (21 of 48).
On Feb. 12, Randle scored 28 points versus Portland, thanks to hitting 12 of 13 free throws. The rebuilding Blazers rank 26th in scoring defense, allowing 113.6 points per game.
Randle will be operating on two full days’ rest, as the Knicks open a four-game homestand tonight.
With all these factors working in Randle’s favor, he has been dubbed Wednesday’s Best Bet on the NBA props front.
Minnesota Timberwolves: C Karl-Anthony Towns
The Prop: 11.5 rebounds (vs. L.A. Lakers)
The Odds: Over -135/Under +100
Spoiler alert: Towns will not replicate Tuesday’s 60-point explosion, which included 32 points in a single quarter.
However, KAT might topple DraftKings’ rebounding total. In fact, he could flirt with Tuesday’s 17-board effort against the Spurs.
What makes us confident about the rebounding prop?
Towns has corralled double-digit rebounds in six consecutive games (15, 13, 11, 13, 10, and 17), and 12-plus boards four times over that span.
KAT has averaged 11.4 rebounds in his last 11 home outings — fractionally below tonight’s total. However, for this stretch in Minneapolis, Towns posted just one clunker (7 rebounds vs. Philly).
Chronicling his last 24 games, KAT pulled down multiple offensive rebounds 18 times.
And Towns has had 48 hours to rest/come down from the elation of dropping 60 on San Antonio.
On the down side, relative to the Over: Towns has fallen short of 12 rebounds in his last four meetings with the Lakers (7, 6, 7, and 10 boards). And despite going 1-4 in its last five games, Los Angeles collectively shot 46.1 percent from the field (208 of 451).
Milwaukee Bucks: PF Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Prop: 49.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Sacramento)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -110
The two-time MVP is making another late-season push for the NBA’s most prestigious award, absurdly averaging 32.8 points, 13.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.1 blocks in his last 11 games. He has been a monster on the NBA props front as well.
Does that make Antetokounmpo a lock to exceed tonight’s ambitious Over total? Tough call here.
Charting his last eight road outings, Giannis has averaged 48.1 points/rebounds/assists. However, for this span, he crossed Wednesday’s 49.5 threshold only three times (53, 55, and 66 PRA credits).
Plus, Antetokounmpo hasn’t registered nine or more assists in nine straight games — his longest dimes drought of the season.
On the positive side, relative to the Over:
Since Jan. 28, spanning 18 games, Antetokounmpo has collected 12-plus rebounds 15 times.
And covering his last 26 outings, Giannis has averaged 31.7 points — which already accounts for 64 percent of tonight’s PRA total.
Throw in the struggling Kings ranking 29th in both field-goal defense (47.9%) and scoring defense (115.3 ppg), and Giannis — who was idle Tuesday night — has more than a puncher’s chance at 50 PRA credits.
The Bucks are midway through a four-game West Coast swing.
