It’s the question NFL fans ask every year at this time: Will my team make the playoffs? If you happen to be such a fan and you believe you know the answer, The SuperBook invites you to put your money where your opinion is.
Among its bevy of preseason NFL betting offerings, The SuperBook has been taking action all summer on a popular NFL playoff odds prop that simply asks: Will “Team X” make the playoffs this season? The SuperBook posted yes/no odds for all 32 NFL teams back in mid-June, then sat back and watched the money pour in.
In advance of Thursday’s kickoff of the 2021-22 NFL season, Props.com caught up with SuperBook executive director John Murray to find out which teams bettors believe will (and won’t) be standing come mid-January.
Titans Receive Strong Support
The last time the Tennessee Titans reached the playoffs in three straight seasons, they were known as the Houston Oilers—and Bill Clinton was wrapping up his first year in the White House. It was January 1994, when the franchise capped a run of seven consecutive playoff appearances with a home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Titans, who clinched a wild-card berth each of the last two seasons and three of the last four, are looking to end that 29-year drought this season. And SuperBook bettors are confident—overwhelmingly so—that coach Mike Vrabel’s squad will do just that. A big reason for that confidence: The addition of wide receiver Julio Jones, whom Tennessee nabbed in an offseason trade with the Atlanta Falcons.
“The Titans have attracted both the most money and the most tickets here of any team to make the NFL playoffs,” Murray said.
“The Yes price has moved from an opener of +110 all the way to the current number of -160. A lot of the bets came shortly after the Titans’ acquisition of Julio Jones.”
Bettors Just Say No To Browns, Jaguars
When it comes to stone-cold locks in life, the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars not making the playoffs has ranked between “death” and “taxes” in recent years. Cleveland has reached the postseason twice since 1994, while Jacksonville has done so three times since 1999 (only once since 2007).
Yes, the Browns ended a mind-blowing 22-year playoff draught last year (and won their first postseason contest since 1994). And, yes, Jacksonville now has a famous new coach (Urban Meyer) and a seemingly can’t-miss franchise quarterback (Trevor Lawrence). But apparently, bettors are taking a “We’ll believe it when we see it” approach with both squads as it relates to the “Will they/won’t they make the playoffs” prop.
“In general, we always get considerably more tickets and money on the Yes options, but among the No options, we have more bets on the Browns than any other team,” Murray said.
“Also, there’s been more money bet on the Jaguars’ No than any other team’s No.”
Despite the action against the Browns, their odds at The SuperBook have held steady at Yes -280/No +240. However, Jacksonville’s odds have shifted to Yes+350/No -420 after opening Yes +290/No -350.
Patriots, Bears See Heavy Action
Murray noted that the betting market is split on two teams in particular: The San Francisco 49ers (currently Yes -210/No+180) and Pittsburgh Steelers (currently Yes +175/No -200) are receiving solid two-way action. The same, however, cannot be said for the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears.
New England missed the postseason last year for the first time since the 2008 season, and just the second time since Tom Brady became the team’s starting quarterback in 2001. And while Murray’s crew still has the Patriots as a slight favorite to miss the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 1999-2000, bettors disagree. New England has gone from Yes +135/No -155 to Yes +100/No -120.
“We’ve been inundated with bets on the Patriots making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl—they’ve been one of the most heavily bet teams in the NFL futures market at our place” Murray said.
“That has somewhat surprised me, because they had such a down year in 2020. But I know they were very active in free agency, and I hear their coach is pretty good.”
Meanwhile, the Bears remain a significant underdog to reach the postseason (Yes +220/No -260) according to the SuperBook. But you wouldn’t know it by looking at Murray’s ticket-count spreadsheet, as he said every bet he’s taken on Chicago’s playoff prop has been on Yes.
As for a popular long shot, bettors have taken dead aim at the Kansas City Chiefs, who at -900 are the odds-on favorite to play beyond Week 18. However, decent money on No/+600 has turned Murray into a Chiefs fan—at least in terms of advancing to the postseason.
“The public loves taking a flier on the biggest favorite to miss the playoffs at the big payout, so [the biggest underdog] is almost always a liability when you do these Yes/No props,” he said. “So we don’t want to see the Chiefs miss the playoffs. And the Bears making the playoffs would be really ugly—about what you’d expect when every single ticket is on the same side.”
