The 2021-22 NBA season just crossed its midpoint, and here’s what we’ve learned so far from an NBA betting perspective:
— Apparently, assembling a roster of mostly aging veterans whose pregame meal requests include dry toast and Metamucil isn’t conducive to winning games … or covering point spreads. (Who knew?)
— Those bettors who spent the first half of the season backing the former teams of two of the league’s biggest stars — while also fading those stars’ current squads — are suddenly sitting on a mountain of disposable income.
— After an uprising on the court and at the betting window in 2020-21, the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks are … back to being the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks.
We tackle these NBA betting trends topics and dissect others in the midseason edition of the NBA Point Spread Report.
All stats reflective of games completed through Jan. 18.
Courting Point-Spread Success
If you would’ve asked us prior to the season to name three of the 10 combined starters for the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder, we’d have said the name Kevin Love … three times. Today if you asked us that same question? Our response would pretty much be the same.
Yet through the first 2½ months of the NBA campaign, all the (mostly) no-name Cavs and Thunder have done is line the pockets of bettors with oodles of cash. Through Tuesday, Cleveland led the NBA with a 29-13-3 ATS mark, just ahead of Oklahoma City at 28-14-1 ATS.
The biggest difference between the two squads? The Cavs have blown past every conceivable preseason expectation — at 27-18, they’re not only sitting fourth in the NBA Eastern Conference standings, but they’re 1.5 games from the top spot.
On the other hand, the Thunder have been as putrid on the court as everyone predicted, currently owning the fourth-worst record in the league. But OKC’s 14-29 SU mark is almost an exact mirror image of its point-spread ledger. And as far as bettors are concerned, that’s the only record that matters.
Trailing the Cavs and Thunder in the NBA point-spread pecking order are the Memphis Grizzlies (30-16 ATS), Charlotte Hornets (27-17), Miami Heat (26-18), and Golden State Warriors (25-17-2).
This brings us back to those two aforementioned superstars: LeBron James (Cavaliers, Heat) and Kevin Durant (Thunder, Warriors) once played for four of the top six spread-covering teams in the land. These days, James and Durant are employed by two squads (Nets and Lakers) that rank 29th and 27th, respectively in the ATS standings.
Combined, the Nets (16-26-1 ATS) and Lakers (18-26) are cashing at a money-burning 39.1 percent rate. (Of course, Durant will miss some time moving forward, which will definitely shift the lines for Brooklyn’s upcoming games.)
Cleveland Rocks
Last season, the Knicks (47-30-1 ATS) narrowly edged the Phoenix Suns for the NBA point-spread crown, while Atlanta (49-40-1) finished a respectable seventh. This year, the Hawks (16-27) occupy the ATS cellar, while New York (22-23) ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Speaking of 180-degree flip-flops, the Cavaliers are looking to duplicate what the Dallas Cowboys just did in the NFL: Dallas went from the ATS outhouse (5-11 in 2020-21) to the penthouse (13-4 in 2021-22).
Cleveland has been particularly kind to bettors in this regard: The club has been about as profitable at home (14-6-1 ATS; tied with Golden State for 2nd) as on the road (15-7-2 ATS, 2nd). The Cavs also have covered in 70.6 percent of their games as a favorite (12-5-2 ATS, tops in the league) and 68 percent of their games as an underdog (17-8-1 ATS, 3rd).
Perhaps best of all, Cleveland backers haven’t had to sweat much this season, as the Cavaliers are covering the spread by an average of 6.7 points per game. Here’s how impressive that stat is: The Warriors own the second-best spread-covering margin … at 3.2 points per contest.
Grizzlies Roaring, Hornets Buzzing
If the NBA handed out a midseason Surprise Team of the Year award, there’s little doubt the Cavaliers would be runaway winners. The runner-up battle, though, would be competitive, and it would pit Memphis against Charlotte.
The Grizzlies are 31-15 SU and in third place in the Western Conference, while the perpetually underperforming Hornets (24-20) are holding down the seventh seed in the East. In addition to posting a combined 55-37 ATS record (59.8%), each squads leads the way when it comes to a key NBA betting split: Memphis is a league-best 15-5 ATS on the road; Charlotte is the top spread-cashing team at home at 14-4 ATS.
At the opposite end of the home/road spectrum are the Orlando Magic (4-14 ATS at home) and Portland Trail Blazers (5-13 ATS on the road).
While Cleveland has been burying bookmakers as a favorite, the Heat have been the NBA’s top “dog,” cashing in 13 of 15 games when catching points. At the negative end, four teams are tied for the worst ATS mark as a favorite (based on winning percentage): The Lakers (10-20 ATS), Nets (12-24-1), Pacers (7-14-1), and Wizards (7-14) are cashing at a 33.3 percent clip as a chalk.
The worst underdog to date? That would be the defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks, who are 3-8 ATS (27.3%). Bettors also have been burned when taking the points with the Blazers (6-13 ATS) and Hawks (6-12 ATS).
Going Streaking
The 82-game NBA season is always a mental and physical grind, with more ups and downs than a Real Housewives episode (and nearly as much drama). As such, every team will endure hot and cold stretches throughout the course of the seven-month campaign (both SU and ATS).
So which teams are streaking in the current NBA betting market? Several of the same ones previously mentioned — particularly Memphis, Charlotte, and Oklahoma City on the sizzling side.
The Grizzlies enter Wednesday’s game at Milwaukee on an 11-3 ATS run; the Hornets are in the midst of a 15-6 ATS roll dating to Dec. 1; and the Thunder are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17.
Also, the Raptors have cashed in 12 of their last 16; the Timberwolves in 12 of their last 18; the Mavericks in nine of their last 13; and the Heat and 76ers in seven of their last nine.
What about the Cavaliers? Since an incredible 14-game ATS winning streak from Nov. 22-Dec. 18, Cleveland is just 5-8-1 ATS. Not great, obviously — but not nearly as bad as these ATS funks: Brooklyn (2-9 last 11), Houston (4-14 last 18), Utah (4-13 last 17), Atlanta (6-15 last 21), and San Antonio (3-8 last 11).
Over Here, Under There
The recently completed NFL and college football regular seasons shared one common betting trend: When it came to totals, Unders routinely outpaced Overs.
Now you can add the NBA to that club.
Halfway through the season, only four teams have seen at least 55 percent of their games go Over the total: The Heat (26-18, 59.1%); Rockets (26-19, 57.8%); Lakers (25-19, 56.8%); and Raptors (23-18, 56.1%).
Conversely, the Under is cashing at 57.8 percent or better for eight teams. And it’s a pretty safe bet that the top two Under squads would surprise most of the wagering public: The Steph Curry-led Warriors are 27-15-2 to the Under (64.3%), while Luke Doncic and the Mavericks have seen 29 of 42 games stay low (69.1%).
In fact, Dallas heads into Wednesday’s home game against the Raptors on Under runs of 10-1 overall and 12-1 at home. For its part, Toronto has followed a stretch of 10 consecutive Overs with five straight Unders.
NBA Betting: ATS Standings
Best
Cavaliers 29-13-3
Thunder 28-14-1
Grizzlies 30-16
Hornets 27-17
Heat 26-18
Worst
Hawks 16-27
Nets 16-26-1
Trail Blazers 17-26
Lakers 18-26
Nuggets 18-24
NBA Betting: Over/Under Standings
Over
Heat 26-18
Rockets 26-19
Lakers 25-19
Raptors 23-18
Spurs 23-19-2
Under
Mavericks 29-13-2
Warriors 26-15-2
76ers 26-16-1
Cavaliers 27-17-1
Bucks 27-19
