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Tonight at T-Mobile Park, we’re about to find out if the Seattle Mariners are destiny’s darlings or if the Detroit Tigers’ comeback kids have one more roar left in them.
This series has given us everything.
Extra-innings drama in Game 1. Jorge Polanco going full video-game mode against Tarik Skubal in Game 2. A rain-delayed Seattle beatdown in Game 3.
And then Wednesday’s absolute stunner—Detroit scoring nine unanswered runs to avoid elimination and force this decisive Game 5.
One team advances to face Toronto in the ALCS. The other goes home replaying what-ifs until spring training.
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Mariners vs Tigers Game 5 Preview
Let’s talk about the elephant on the mound: Tarik Skubal is pitching Game 5 of a playoff series again.
If that sentence doesn’t immediately trigger memories for Tigers fans, let me refresh: Last October, Skubal started Game 5 at Cleveland and gave up a grand slam in a 7-3 loss that ended their season.
Now here he is, one year later, same situation, carrying both the weight of redemption and the burden of being baseball’s best pitcher, facing the one team that somehow has his number.
It’s hard to believe, but the Mariners have beaten Skubal three times this season. Three. Nobody—and I mean nobody—has beaten Skubal four times in a single year during his six-year career. Seattle is one victory away from doing exactly that.
The numbers are bonkers. Skubal dominated everyone else to a 2.21 ERA and will likely win his second straight Cy Young Award unanimously.
But against Seattle? That ERA balloons to 4.58. Polanco took him deep twice in Game 2. The Mariners have seen him enough to know his changeup is coming, and they’re somehow not fooled.
On the other side, George Kirby gets the nod for Seattle over Luis Castillo (who’s been lights out with a 0.00 ERA this series). Kirby was solid in Game 1 before Kerry Carpenter took him deep—which, by the way, is Carpenter’s specialty.
The kid has hit five homers in just 11 career at-bats against Kirby. That’s not a typo. That’s a legitimate matchup problem Dan Wilson has to navigate.
ALDS Game 4 Highlights
Listen, momentum in baseball is about as real as my chances of running a sub-8-minute mile (spoiler: not happening). But what Detroit did on Wednesday felt different. They didn’t just win. They demolished.
Riley Greene’s 454-foot moonshot. Javier Báez going full 2016 Cubs mode with four RBIs. Gleyber Torres adding a solo shot for good measure.
The Tigers scored nine runs after managing just nine runs total in the first three games combined. That’s the baseball gods looking down and saying, “Yeah, this series isn’t over yet.”
And here’s where it gets interesting for tonight: Seattle’s bullpen is gassed. They’ve been worked hard through four games, and it showed in Game 4 when Gabe Speier—who’d been dominant early—got lit up for the second straight game. Meanwhile, Detroit’s relievers are relatively fresh and have been lights out when it matters.
The Mariners do have Castillo available for multiple innings, which is a massive weapon. But if Kirby gets into trouble early, are you really confident in a bullpen that just coughed up nine runs?
Why Detroit Can Win Tonight
I don’t love betting against home teams in elimination games at venues like T-Mobile Park. The atmosphere will be electric. Seattle went 51-30 at home during the regular season. They’re the only team to beat Skubal three times this year.
But I am leaning toward the Tigers.
First, the Skubal redemption narrative is too strong. This isn’t just another start. This is his chance to erase last year’s Game 5 disaster.
A.J. Hinch said if you have one game to win, there’s nobody he’d rather have than Skubal. I believe him. The guy has been unhittable against everyone else throughout his career.
I’m not a big BvP guy, but Carpenter has owned Kirby. Plus, Kerry is just a phenomenal right-handed pitcher masher.
Those five homers in 11 at-bats aren’t luck—that’s a hitter who has a pitcher figured out. Expect Wilson to have lefty Speier ready for high-leverage Carpenter situations, but after Speier’s recent struggles, is that really the solution you want?
Third, Detroit’s offense just woke up at the perfect time. Báez is hitting .316 in the playoffs. Greene broke out with that massive homer. Spencer Torkelson has four hits and four RBIs in the last three games. The lineup that looked lifeless through three games suddenly looks dangerous.
Fourth, the betting market is telling us something. Detroit is a -135 road favorite despite the Mariners having home field and the better historical record in Game 5s (Seattle is 2-0 in winner-take-all games).
Look, Seattle has Jorge Polanco (who’s been incredible against Detroit), Cal Raleigh (hitting .438 in the series), and the whole “we’re the team of destiny” thing going for them. They ended a 21-year playoff drought. They just won the AL West. They’ve never been to a World Series and desperately want that ALCS berth.
But sometimes talent just wins. Skubal is too good. Detroit has too much momentum. And I think the Tigers’ bullpen holds up better in the late innings than Seattle’s fatigued relievers.
Mariners vs Tigers Game 5 Expert Pick
Give me Detroit Tigers -135 to advance to the ALCS.
I’m expecting a low-scoring game—something like 3-2 or 4-3—with Skubal dealing through six or seven innings before handing it to Detroit’s rested bullpen. Carpenter gets at least one big hit off Kirby. Báez continues his hot streak. And the Tigers punch their ticket to face Toronto.
