Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing players and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Props.com compared the top platforms to find that DraftKings Sportsbook has the most robust offerings for NBA Props. They also have a generous welcome offer for new members (see below).
With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Thursday’s seven-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of noon ET on April 7.
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Charlotte Hornets: PG LaMelo Ball
The prop: 5.5 rebounds (vs. Orlando)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
The Hornets are currently locked in a tight battle with the Nets and Hawks. All three teams are guaranteed to make the play-in tournament, but the difference between the No. 8 seed and the other two spots is massive. The eighth-place finisher will have two shots to make the postseason, while the other squads will have to win two straight games.
With that in mind, expect the Hornets to take Thursday’s matchup vs. the Magic very seriously. That bodes well for Ball’s statistical output. He hasn’t done a ton of damage on the glass recently, recording five rebounds or fewer in three straight games, but he’s still averaged 6.6 rebounds per game this season. The Magic are also a strong matchup from a rebounding perspective, ranking just 24th in team rebound rate.
Add it all up, and this is an excellent spot to buy low on LaMelo.
Philadelphia 76ers: PG Tyrese Maxey
The prop: 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Toronto)
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
Maxey came through for us in a big way on Tuesday, racking up 30 points, seven assists, and three rebounds vs. the Pacers. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance vs. the Raptors, but this number still stands out as too low.
Even with the addition of James Harden, Maxey is playing all the minutes he can handle. He’s coming off more than 38 minutes in his last outing, and there’s no reason that should change. Maxey has averaged 17.5 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.3 boards per 36 minutes this season, so he can definitely get to 23 PRA with 38+ minutes.
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The prop: 7.5 assists (vs. Memphis)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
It’s getting difficult to find new words to describe Nikola Jokic.
He’s currently the betting favorite to take home his second consecutive MVP, and he’s capable of beating teams in a multitude of ways. Jokic is averaging career-bests in both points (27.0) and rebounds (13.7), while also netting 7.9 assists per game. And he’s doing it all with Will Barton as his best teammate. That’s absurd.
Jokic is on pace to set a new record for Player Efficiency Rating, which was held by Wilt Chamberlain for nearly 50 years before Giannis Antetokounmpo bested it two years ago.
There are plenty of ways to target Jokic on Thursday against Memphis, but my favorite is betting him to beat his assist prop. He hasn’t been distributing at quite his normal rate of late — he’s had less than 7.5 assists in three straight games — but he’s had at least eight dimes in 40 of 73 games this season (54.8%).
The Grizzlies also have played at the second-fastest pace in the league over their past 10 games, so this is a strong pace-up spot for Jokic and the Nuggets. Another trend working in Jokic’s favor: He’s averaged 8.0 assists in three games versus the Grizzlies this season.
San Antonio Spurs: PG Tre Jones
The prop: 7.5 assists (at Minnesota)
The odds: Over -150/Under +110
Dejounte Murray remains out of the lineup for the Spurs, which means Jones will likely make another start at point guard. He’s thrived in that role recently, but his assist prop has become slightly inflated. He’s handed out at least nine dimes in two of his past three games, but he’s played 33.6 minutes or less in each of those contests.
Jones has averaged 7.2 assists per 36 minutes this season, so there are reasons to expect some regression. The Timberwolves are a great matchup for the Spurs – they’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season – but I’m willing to roll the dice on the under at better than even money.
Minnesota Timberwolves: SG Anthony Edwards
The prop: 4.5 assists (vs. San Antonio)
The odds: Over +105/Under -140
Edwards is many things, but no one is going to confuse him with a distributor any time soon. It’s possible he develops into one as his career progresses, but he’s averaged just 3.8 assists per game in his sophomore season. He’s handed out less than five dimes 46 of 70 games (65.7%), so getting this prop at -140 represents an excellent value.
Unfortunately, Edwards’ assist prop isn’t available on Underdog, so you’ll have to settle for under 30.5 points + rebounds + assists instead. I’m not quite as interested in that prop, but it should still provide some value. You also won’t have to lay -140 if you’re someone who likes to avoid paying juice.
