Friday’s NHL props were a bit of a roller coaster. We finished 2-for-4, with a no-play on Miro Heiskanen, who sat out Dallas’ 4-3 win at Winnipeg. And while we misfired on an assist prop involving the Devils’ Jesper Bratt and a goal prop on Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, we crushed two solid plus-money props.
Anaheim’s Troy Terry (+150) put a puck in net for the third time in four games against Vegas, while Minnesota’s Ryan Hartman easily nailed the Over on his shot prop at +112 (which was our Best Bet for Friday). In fact, Hartman had four shots on net (and a goal) before the end of the first period!
Add it all up, and it was a second straight profitable day. Let’s make it three in a row with a special edition of Saturday NHL props, as 10 games are on the schedule.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel, updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on March 5.
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Florida Panthers: RW Sam Reinhart
The Prop: 0.5 assists (vs. Detroit)
The Odds: Over +106/Under -130
Reinhart is a bit of a curious case for Saturday NHL props. While he’s cleared this assist number in less than half of his games this season (22 of 52), he’s a solid bet to record a helper against a Detroit unit that had a tough battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday.
Not only does Reinhart have an assist in four of his last six games overall, but he’s recorded at least one in 12 of 20 contests against teams with a losing record this season. His usage rates — among Panthers forwards, he ranks second in time-on-ice overall and power-play time-on-ice — suggest he’ll be on the ice for key scoring opportunities in this one.
The downside: Reinhart only has six assists in 21 career games against the Red Wings (including none in this season’s lone meeting, Oct. 29). That said, with Detroit in a back-to-back spot against the league’s best offense, the situation sets up great for Reinhart to buck his career assist trend against the Wings.
Washington Capitals: LW Alex Ovechkin
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs. Seattle)
The Odds: -125
Ovechkin’s incredible season continued Thursday against the Islanders, as the “Great 8” scored his 33rd goal. That gives him 763 for his brilliant career, putting him just three behind Jaromir Jagr for third place on the all-time goal-scoring list.
Ovechkin has scored against every active NHL franchise, including this rocket of a shot in his last meeting with the Kraken.
Alex Ovechkin (@ovi8) has now scored against every active NHL opponent. 👀 pic.twitter.com/2KQat6IoWZ
— NHL (@NHL) November 22, 2021
Throughout the season, we’ve hammered home the point about Seattle’s awful goaltending, particularly in 5-on-5 situations. But this should really put things into perspective: Kraken netminder Philipp Grubauer’s minus-24.03 goals-saved-above-average rate is the worst in the NHL. In fact, he’s nearly lapped the field. The next-worst goaltender, Montreal’s Cayden Primeau, is at minus-12.4.
While -125 might seem a bit expensive — we usually get plus-money odds on goal-scoring NHL props — it’s still a fairly safe play, backing one of the best goal-scorers in league history against a historically bad goalie.
Edmonton Oilers: C Connor McDavid
The Prop: 0.5 power-play points (vs. Montreal)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -110
If you’re even a casual NHL observer, you likely know how dominant a scorer McDavid is. But what you may not know is he’s tied with teammate Leon Draisaitl with 31 power-play points — a total that’s nearly double any other Oilers player (next is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 16). It’s also five ahead of Vancouver’s J.T. Miller for the most in the league.
McDavid has 25 points in 20 career games against the Canadiens, which pencils out to 1.4 per contest — among the best he’s done against any opponent. Now he goes up against a Montreal penalty-kill unit that’s the second-worst in the NHL this season (73.5 percent).
Yes, the Habs have improved in the PK department in recent weeks under new head coach Martin St. Louis. And yes, they held McDavid off the scoresheet entirely in the only previous meeting this season (Jan. 29).
Still, we’re riding with the best player in hockey, who has at least one power-play point in five of his last seven contests.
Vancouver Canucks: C Elias Pettersson
The Prop: 0.5 assists (vs Toronto)
The Odds: Over +165/Under -210
Pettersson’s season got off to a slow start due to injury, but he’s picked it up as of late. The rising star has bagged seven assists in his last seven games and is now up to 21 on the season. That includes at least one in seven of the last 10 contests, helping Vancouver to a 7-3-0 record and back into the postseason chase. (The Canucks are now just four games out of a playoff spot.)
The return of Elias Pettersson, whose post-injury slump is being followed by his best hockey.
“You learn from it. That’s life: you can want something bad and it still doesn’t go the way you wanted. It happens. I’m focused on what’s ahead.” https://t.co/Ih9YhNK4Wu
— Iain MacIntyre (@imacSportsnet) March 4, 2022
On Saturday, Pettersson takes on a Maple Leafs outfit that has allowed 37 goals in its last 10 games. Obviously, goaltending has been an issue for Toronto. But the play of regular netminders Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek has been far from the only problem. Inconsistent play has led to breakdowns in all phases — and lest we forget, Toronto nearly let a 7-2 lead against the Red Wings slip away a week ago.
With Pettersson’s confidence at an all-time high, expect the 23-year-old Swede to continue his scoring ways against an opponent that is slumping big-time on defense.
Colorado Avalanche: D Cale Makar
The Prop: 2.5 total shots (vs. Calgary)
The Odds: Over -154/Under +116
To say Makar is already the league’s most offensively gifted blueliner may not be too far of a stretch. In his third full NHL season, the 23-year-old leads all defensemen in goals (18) and points (59), and ranks sixth in shots on goal (averaging just over three per game). Makar also is coming off a season-high seven-shot performance against the Arizona Coyotes, and he’s beaten this prop in 15 of 27 home games.
So now you know why this NHL prop is juiced heavily to the Over. We just believe the smart play is to go the other way and take the Under, and it has everything to do with the opponent and situation.
See, while Makar has recorded three or more shots in 28 of 51 games this season (54.9%), he dips below 50 percent against teams with a winning record (nine times in 20 games). Calgary is also one of the NHL’s best shot-suppressing teams, giving up the fifth-fewest shots per game (29.2). The Flames also rank in the top 10 in takeaways per 60 minutes.
Furthermore, while he exploded against Arizona on Thursday, Makar still has failed to reach three shots on goal in five of his last 10 outings. Calgary is no pushover, and they’re certainly a considerably tougher matchup than the Coyotes.
