Not much about the world of sports gambling is predictable, which is why millions are attracted to it. But here’s one thing you can bank on: bettors falling victim to recency bias—that is, subconsciously placing significant emphasis on recent events and wagering accordingly.
One area where recency bias shows up every summer is in the betting market for NFL regular season win totals. With last year’s results and offseason news fresh in their minds, NFL win total bettors almost always jump on teams coming off strong seasons and fade squads whose playoff hopes were dashed before Halloween.
So it should come as little surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs (a league-best 14-2 last season) and Houston Texans (coming off a 4-12 campaign and a controversy-fueled offseason) are the stars of this year’s NFL regular season Over/Under betting market at TwinSpires Sportsbook.
With the league’s first-ever 17-game season on the horizon, Props.com dives into NFL win totals action.
NFL Regular Season Win Totals 2021-22
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | OVER | UNDER |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8 | -134 | +110 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | -137 | +110 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | -167 | +135 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 | -124 | +102 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | +100 | -122 |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | +103 | -125 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 | +100 | -122 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.5 | -108 | -113 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | +125 | -152 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | -125 | +104 |
| Detroit Lions | 5 | +100 | -120 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | -125 | +102 |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | +135 | -167 |
| Indianapolis Colts | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 | +110 | -134 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 | +115 | -141 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | -115 | -106 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | -129 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 | +110 | -134 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | -143 | +118 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | -108 | -114 |
| New England Patriots | 9 | -150 | +123 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 | -105 | -117 |
| New York Giants | 7 | -143 | +118 |
| New York Jets | 6.5 | +130 | -159 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 | -152 | +125 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | +117 | -143 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | -103 | -121 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.5 | -159 | +130 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | -148 | +120 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | -115 | -112 |
| Washington Football Team | 8 | -148 | +120 |
*Odds for Indianapolis Colts taken off the board due to COVID issues.
*Odds via TwinSpires as of September 2, 2021.
Bettors Underwhelmed By Houston
To say the last calendar year has been a disaster for the Texans is an understatement akin to calling Tom Brady a decent-looking dude who’s had a little bit of success.
First, Houston coach/general manager Bill O’Brien traded away one of the NFL’s best wide receivers (DeAndre Hopkins) and received the equivalent of a bag of peanuts in return. Then, after the Texans dropped their first four games out of the gate (all by a touchdown or more), O’Brien became the franchise’s ex-coach/general manager. Houston would go on to bookend a 1-6 start with an 0-5 finish, after which star quarterback Deshaun Watson told anyone who would listen that he wanted out.
Watson’s trade demand was a hot-button topic for weeks—until the media focus shifted to allegations that he sexually assaulted multiple massage therapists.
Throw in a roster overhaul that included the release of three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, and it’s no wonder that TwinSpires bettors have spent the offseason hammering the Texans under their win total of 4.5. And by “hammering,” we mean that 87 percent of the tickets written and 89 percent of the money wagered on Houston’s win total at TwinSpires is on the Under.
The action has been so heavy that TwinSpires adjusted the price on the Texans’ win total from Over +115/Under -137 to Over +135/Under-167.
“Not only have the Texans had a lot of off-field drama, but they lost some key players in the offseason, so we’re not surprised at all that the Under has been a popular bet,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachery Lucas said. “They’ll be underdogs in every game. Honestly, looking at their schedule, it’s difficult to find three wins.”
Chiefs Win Total Overwhelming
The antithesis of the Texans, of course, are the Chiefs. While it failed to convert the NFL’s best regular-season record into a second straight Super Bowl title—falling to Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in February—Kansas City still sports a roster flush with talent. That talent, led by electrifying quarterback Patrick Mahomes, is the reason the Chiefs opened with the highest win total among the NFL’s 32 teams—and why it went even higher.
TwinSpires initially listed Kansas City’s win total at 12 (Over -140/Under +115) before betting action forced the move to 12.5 (Over +115/Under -141). Of all the action on the Chiefs’ win total thus far, the Over is getting 78 percent of tickets and 74 percent of money. The ticket-count percentage ranks second at TwinSpires among all NFL win totals action, and the money percentage ranks third.
“Kansas City once again looks strong and is always a public favorite,” Lucas said of the franchise that’s recorded at least 10 wins in six consecutive seasons.
Little Faith In Lions, Broncos
While the Texans are far and away the least popular team in the eyes of NFL regular season win total bettors, they’re not alone. Lucas said after Houston and Kansas City, his book has written the most tickets on the Detroit Lions Under—76 percent of all bets made on the Lions’ win total. Detroit opened at 5.5 (+125/-155) and is down to 5 (+100/-120).
When it comes to money wagered, gamblers also expect the Denver Broncos to fall short of expectations. At TwinSpires, 80 percent of the cash wagered on the Broncos’ total of 8.5 wins has been on the Under, second only to the percentage of money taken on the Texans’ Under. Denver opened at 8.5 (-150/+122) and is now 8.5 (-125/+104).
From the “Pros vs. Joes” perspective, Lucas said TwinSpires has seen sharp money on the Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 (opened -110 both ways, now +125/-152); Broncos Under 8.5; and Baltimore Ravens Over 10.5 (opened -150/+120, now -167/+135). Meanwhile, the public has taken aim at a trio of Overs: the Chiefs Over 12.5; Buccaneers Over 11.5 (opened -140/+115, now -148/+120); and the Cleveland Browns Over 10.5 (opened +105/-126, now -108/-113).
Can The Eagles Fly High?
The one sleeper team that’s garnered a decent amount of support from NFL season win total bettors at TwinSpires? That would be a squad coming off a four-win season, now boasting a first-year starting quarterback and a first-year head coach.
“The Eagles Over 6.5 wins has gotten quite a bit of attention,” Lucas said of Philadelphia, whose win-total odds have moved from Over -126/Under +105 to Over -152/Under +125. “I personally don’t have a lot of faith in [new head coach] Nick Sirianni leading this team or Jalen Hurts at quarterback. The one upside is they have the NFL’s easiest schedule, and with an extra game this year, 7-10 could be a possibility.”
