Lightning Vs Avalanche Odds: Stanley Cup Final Game 1

Nathan MacKinnon #29 of the Colorado Avalanche looks on prior to the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Ball Arena on November 03, 2021 in Denver, Colorado.
Image Credit: Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images

The last time a team was on the brink of three straight Stanley Cups, the country was losing its mind over a Star Wars sequel, Tom Cruise had a Top-10 blockbuster, and rising interest rates whipsawed the economy into a recession. Wait, what? 

Anyway, the Lightning have the opportunity to do what no team has done since the 1980-83 Islanders: string together three straight Stanley Cup championships. Despite that recent dominance, Tampa Bay checks in as substantial underdogs to make it happen. 

Props.com has the full breakdown of Lightning vs Avalance odds and action with a Stanley Cup Final Game 1 betting preview.

Lightning Vs Avalance Odds: Game 1 

TeamMoneylinePucklineTotalSeries
Tampa Bay Lightning+160-216 (+1.5)Over 6 (-115)+150
Colorado Avalanche-135+175 (-1.5)Under 6 (-105)-180

Odds via PointsBetUSA and updated as of 1:15 p.m. ET on June 15.

N.Y. Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning (8 p.m. ET/ABC)

Best-of-7 series: First game.
Season series: Colorado won 2-0. The Avs won 3-2 in Denver on Feb. 10, and in Tampa 4-3 on Oct. 23.
Playoff results to date: Tampa Bay 12-5 overall (5-4 road); Colorado 12-2 overall (5-2 home).
Series price: Colorado -180, Tampa Bay +150

How the Avalanche got here: By wrecking everything in their path. Colorado rolled up 119 points in the regular season, second only to the Florida Panthers. After blitzing the Predators 4-0, Colorado barely slowed down against the Blues, losing Game 2 convincingly and Game 5 in OT only after giving up a 3-0 lead in the second. They bounced back against Edmonton with another sweep despite losing starting goalie Darcy Kuemper in Game 1 of that series. Potting 22 goals across four games will do that for you.

How the Lightning got here: Tampa had to settle for third in a stacked Atlantic. Their 110 points put them third behind Toronto and Florida, but the Lightning got to prove who the better team was in the playoffs. They played a life-and-death opening round seven-game set against the Maple Leafs that if we’re all being honest would have made for a much better Eastern Conference Finals. The Bolts stunned the deer-in-headlights Panthers in four straight before getting all they could handle from the New York Rangers, whom they dispatched in six. 

Key Injuries

Colorado Avalanche: Centers Nazim Kadri and Andrew Cogliano are both day-to-day and looking doubtful for Game 1. Kadri injured his right thumb, and Cogliano recently underwent hand surgery, though both were skating without sticks at practice.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Center Brayden Point is listed as day-to-day with a leg injury but is expected to play tonight.

Man Advantage

Alex Killorn is 11 of 11 to go Under 0.5 points

According to BetPrep, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has been frosty. He’s 11 of his last 11 to go pointless, and even though you have to lay some pretty significant juice, at -160, BetPrep still sees 21% expected value on the play.

Some other players showing an edge on the BetPrep Prop Cheat Sheet are:

  • COL Devin Toews Over 1.5 shots on goal. Toews hasn’t been crushing this one lately. He’s been Under five of his last seven. But before this cold streak started against the Blues, he’s been money, clearing the number 63 of 95. At +130 there’s 24% edge here.
  • TBL Ondre Palat Over 0.5 points. He’s beat it eight of his last nine and he’s only -118 to get there tonight. It’s a number good for 20% edge.
  • COL Valeri Nichuskin Under 2.5 shots on goal. This is another juicy play at -160, but Nichuskin is a stone-cold weapon for the Avs. He’s beat it 16 of his last 21, and the play generates 12% expected value.

Betting Nuggets

  • COL is 5-0 as a favorite
  • COL is 5-1 on the puckline against a Top-10 defense
  • COL is 10-4 on the puckline after three-plus days of rest
  • TBL is 6-0 on the puckline as an underdog
  • TBL is 4-13 on the puckline after three-plus days of rest
  • Under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last five

Tale Of The (Betting) Tape

Here are some key numbers BetPrep has identified, in both game and betting stats. These are for the regular season and playoffs combined, and the profit and loss numbers are based on $100 wagers.

Lightning vs. Avalanche stats and betting data

Lightning vs Avalanche Odds and Action

UPDATE 5 P.M ET WEDNESDAY: Colorado has come down slightly to -155 with the action heavy on the Avalanche. They’re taking 62% of the money against 72% of the cash. Tampa Bay’s +130 on the other side isn’t proving attractive, and less so on the puckline where the Lightning +1.5 is at -216 and only generating 38% of tickets and 10% of handle. The total is lopsided too with 72% of wagers on Over 6 despite the juice running to -161. “Just” 66% of the dough falls on the Over, though.

UPDATE 1:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The moneyline at PointsBetUSA opened with the Avs as the heavy -175 chalk, but they were quickly bet down to -165 and have ticked down since to -160. 

On the puckline it was a similar story with Colorado opening at +165 to win by two, quickly being bet up to +170 and swung out to +175 yesterday afternoon where it currently sits.

The total has been steady at 6 with the juice at Over -115, aside from a brief trip to -120 Monday afternoon.

In the series, PointsBet opened Colorado as a -200 favorite, but they’ve come down to Avs -180 with the Lightning +150 on the comeback. The Lightning are taking the bulk of the tickets (63%) and money (77%)

Check back prior to puck drop of Game 1 for additional Lightning vs. Avalanche odds and action updates.

Stanley Cup Final Series Pick: Lock In A Gift From Bookmakers