You can learn a lot about how a game is expected to play out by looking at the spread. Logic says that a team that is favored by nearly ten points is likely to build up a lead and rush the ball more.
Given that assumption, along with a few strong statistical trends, betting Ezekiel Elliott to go over his rushing yards total in Week 10 is worthy of consideration for your NFL props.
Dallas is currently a 9.5-point home favorite against Atlanta, and Elliott is the clear top back in this offense.
With an advantageous spot, his 2021 production, and BetPrep trends powering the selection, look at Elliott’s over in Week 10, currently projected at 79.5 yards on BetPrep.
NFL Props Advantage: Dallas’ Run Game
The Cowboys are looking to bounce back from their surprising loss to Denver last Sunday. They find themselves in a good spot to do so against the Falcons. While Atlanta has won a few games of late, their defense remains a significant issue, most notably their rush defense.
Among players with at least 50 first down carries, #Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott’s 4.99 yards per carry on first down is the third-highest in the NFL.pic.twitter.com/c9d2U5xx3e
— Mark Lane (@therealmarklane) November 5, 2021
Football Outsiders has the Falcons run defense DVOA clocking in at 27th in the league and the Falcons are allowing on average, 123.1 rushing yards per game (24th in the NFL).
In comes Dallas and their top-five running game, thanks equally to strong running backs and a strong offensive line.
This is a disparity worth targeting.
Elliott’s Rushing Production
Elliott plays roughly 40 more snaps a game than his backup Tony Pollard. Pollard has had an efficient season, but you can’t ignore the volume Elliott is seeing.
Zeke is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 77.75 rushing yards per game. In a game that Dallas should build up a sizable lead, Elliott is likely to see upwards of 15 carries.
If you ignore last week, a game the Cowboys were down 30-0 at one point, Elliott rushed for no fewer than 16 carries since Week 1.
Given the game script, the workload will be there to power this over.
NFL Props With BetPrep Trends
If you’re not utilizing the data available to you at BetPrep, what are you waiting for?
The tool is projecting Elliott’s over/under at 79.5 yards. There are positive trends with significant history that propel confidence when locking in Week 10 NFL props.
Positive trends:
- Ran for 80+ yards in 47 of his last 67 (70.15%) games when he ran for at least 50 yards last game.
- Ran for 80+ yards in 18 of his last 24 (75%) games when he averaged at least 5 rush yards per attempt last game.
- Ran for 80+ yards in 20 of his last 27 (74.07%) games when he is averaging at least 4.7 rush yards per attempt on the season.
These aren’t minimal sample sizes, mind you. Look at the range that BetPrep is covering Elliott here! The first trend, which indicates a 70.15% chance of hitting, covers a 67-game span.
There’s enough to like here to confidently place a wager on Elliott’s over in Week 10.
Good luck this weekend, and for more NFL info be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets!