NFL Pick Of The Day: Expert Reveals Best Bet For Christmas Games Today (12/25)

If you’re looking for the NFL pick of the day for Christmas, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve got a solid Thursday slate with three games kicking off throughout the day, and I’ve been digging through the numbers to find where the real value is hiding. There are two player prop bet angles today that I’ve tabbed as my favorite picks.

Christmas Day football is a different beast – you’ve got teams dealing with short rest, unique scheduling, and motivations that don’t always line up with what the spreads are telling us. Some squads are fighting for playoff positioning, while others are basically playing out the string.

Let’s open today’s NFL pick of the day: Isiah Pacheco.

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NFL Pick Of The Day: Christmas Best Bet

Let’s talk about Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs going higher than 11.5 receiving yards, and I like his receptions props as well (higher than 2.5). This is my favorite ladder play and is very reasonable – it’s my NFL Pick of the Day for Christmas.

Now, it’s getting legitimately ugly for Kansas City, and who knows what the future will hold. But we know what happened last week, and we know who’s starting at quarterback today: Chris Oladokun will be under center for Kansas City. He played most of last week’s game after Gardner Minshew exited with a season-ending knee injury.

The real story here for betting purposes is Pacheco, who logged his second-highest percentage of snaps this season at 73%. Just for comparison, he hasn’t cracked 60% of snaps since Week 6. That’s a massive usage bump.

He also ran 19 routes according to Fantasy Points data and had 7 targets against Tennessee, which he turned into 6 catches for 41 yards. Now, we might not be able to expect that kind of ceiling performance every week, but again, I’m going back to who’s at quarterback.

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Oladokun is a checkdown machine. Pacheco led the Chiefs in first-read rate looks last week with 5 of them. Get this – he has 12 first reads all season, which means he had 7 the rest of the year combined. That’s an absolutely ridiculous concentration of targets.

NFL Top Pick Today

Now I know Denver’s defense is very good, especially against the run. But if they play with a little bit of a lead (and they are big favorites), they should leave the underneath stuff open for Pacheco and the smaller check-down passes. That plays right into Oladokun’s tendencies.

Pacheco was a free agent in the spring, and I think there’s a correlation here. Right after the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention, Kareem Hunt barely played.

NFL Best Bet Today

Andy Reid is a player’s coach, and I think he’s letting Pacheco do his thing before the offseason hits and he chases a bag. There’s no reason to keep playing Hunt if the team is uncompetitive, and Pacheco likely has no ties to the team’s future – he’ll most likely not be re-signed.

At 11.5 receiving yards with this kind of target volume from a checkdown-happy backup QB? I’m all over it, and I’m laddering this play up through his reception props as well.

That being said, anything can happen this late in the season, especially with an inexperienced quarterback, and teams looking to get young players some snaps. Bet responsibly!

Good luck, and enjoy the day!

LIVE NFL ODDS TODAY

Player
Dak Prescott DAL QB DAL @ WAS Today 1:00 PM ET	o275.5 -113 u275.5 -111	-	o271.5 -112 u271.5 -112	o272.5 -128 u272.5 -128	o273.5 -115 u273.5 -115	o272.5 -108 u272.5 -125	o270.5 -115 u270.5 -115	o3.5 -137 u3.5 -137	-	-
Josh Johnson WAS QB DAL @ WAS Today 1:00 PM ET	o188.5 -112 u188.5 -112	o184.5 -137 u184.5 -137	o185.5 -112 u185.5 -112	o186.5 -128 u186.5 -128	o193.5 -115 u193.5 -118	o188.5 -120 u188.5 -112	o185.5 -115 u185.5 -115	o185.5 -137 u185.5 -137	-	-
Jared Goff DET QB DET @ MIN Today 4:30 PM ET	o246.5 -111 u246.5 -113	o246.5 -137 u246.5 -137	o246.5 -112 u246.5 -112	o248.5 -135 u248.5 -121	o246.5 -115 u246.5 -115	o246.5 -118 u246.5 -113	o245.5 -115 u245.5 -115	o246.5 -137 u246.5 -137	-	-
Max Brosmer MIN QB DET @ MIN Today 4:30 PM ET	o186.5 -111 u186.5 -113	o181.5 -137 u181.5 -137	o181.5 -112 u181.5 -112	o178.5 -131 u178.5 -123	o186.5 -115 u186.5 -118	o184.5 -115 u184.5 -115	o180.5 -120 u180.5 -110	o182.5 -137 u182.5 -137	-	-
Bo Nix DEN QB DEN @ KC Today 8:15 PM ET	o233.5 -113 u233.5 -111	o229.5 -137 u229.5 -137	o229.5 -112 u229.5 -112	o227.5 -153 u227.5 -107	o231.5 -118 u231.5 -115	o231.5 -115 u231.5 -114	o225.5 -120 u225.5 -110	o229.5 -137 u229.5 -137	-	-
Chris Oladokun KC QB DEN @ KC Today 8:15 PM ET	o154.5 -111 u154.5 -113	o151.5 -137 u151.5 -137	o149.5 -112 u149.5 -112	o148.5 -136 u148.5 -119	o148.5 -115 u148.5 -115	o150.5 -120 u150.5 -112	o155.5 -115 u155.5 -115	o148.5 -137 u148.5 -137	-	-
C.J. Stroud HOU QB HOU @ LAC Dec 27 4:30 PM ET	o219.5 -111 u219.5 -113	o221.5 -137 u221.5 -137	o223.5 -114 u223.5 -114	o226.5 -128 u226.5 -128	o221.5 -118 u221.5 -110	o222.5 -110 u222.5 -122	o225.5 -110 u225.5 -120	o218.5 -137 u218.5 -137	-	-
Justin Herbert LAC QB HOU @ LAC Dec 27 4:30 PM ET	o212.5 -111 u212.5 -113	o213.5 -137 u213.5 -137	o213.5 -114 u213.5 -114	o217.5 -131 u217.5 -125	o216.5 -115 u216.5 -115	o213.5 -111 u213.5 -121	o210.5 -115 u210.5 -115	o216.5 -137 u216.5 -137	-	-
Jordan Love GB QB BAL @ GB Dec 27 8:00 PM ET	-	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	-	o225.5 -131 u225.5 -125	o225.5 -115 u225.5 -115	-	-	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	-	-
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB PIT @ CLE Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o191.5 -113 u191.5 -111	o190.5 -137 u190.5 -137	o196.5 -114 u196.5 -114	o193.5 -128 u193.5 -128	o190.5 -115 u190.5 -115	o192.5 -112 u192.5 -120	o190.5 -120 u190.5 -110	o197.5 -137 u197.5 -137	-	-
Baker Mayfield TB QB TB @ MIA Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o224.5 -113 u224.5 -111	o229.5 -137 u229.5 -137	o218.5 -114 u218.5 -114	o227.5 -128 u227.5 -128	o238.5 -115 u238.5 -115	o230.5 -115 u230.5 -115	o220.5 -110 u220.5 -120	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	-	-
Brady Cook NYJ QB NE @ NYJ Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o170.5 -111 u170.5 -113	o171.5 -137 u171.5 -137	o167.5 -114 u167.5 -114	o167.5 -128 u167.5 -128	o171.5 -115 u171.5 -115	o169.5 -114 u169.5 -115	o170.5 -110 u170.5 -120	o171.5 -137 u171.5 -137	-	-
Bryce Young CAR QB SEA @ CAR Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o195.5 -112 u195.5 -112	o196.5 -137 u196.5 -137	o196.5 -114 u196.5 -114	o201.5 -113 u201.5 -144	o200.5 +105 u200.5 -140	o196.5 -115 u196.5 -115	o190.5 -120 u190.5 -110	o196.5 -137 u196.5 -137	-	-
Cameron Ward TEN QB NO @ TEN Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o189.5 -111 u189.5 -113	o190.5 -137 u190.5 -137	o190.5 -114 u190.5 -114	o184.5 -151 u184.5 -108	o194.5 -115 u194.5 -115	o190.5 -114 u190.5 -115	o185.5 -115 u185.5 -115	o194.5 -137 u194.5 -137	-	-
Drake Maye NE QB NE @ NYJ Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o249.5 -113 u249.5 -111	o255.5 -137 u255.5 -137	o255.5 -114 u255.5 -114	o255.5 -121 u255.5 -135	o254.5 -115 u254.5 -115	o252.5 -102 u252.5 -130	o250.5 -120 u250.5 -110	o253.5 -137 u253.5 -137	-	-
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB ARI @ CIN Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o253.5 -113 u253.5 -111	o252.5 -137 u252.5 -137	o252.5 -114 u252.5 -114	o247.5 -147 u247.5 -112	o259.5 -115 u259.5 -115	o254.5 -114 u254.5 -117	o250.5 -110 u250.5 -120	o254.5 -137 u254.5 -137	-	-
Joe Burrow CIN QB ARI @ CIN Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o262.5 -113 u262.5 -111	o260.5 -137 u260.5 -137	o262.5 -114 u262.5 -114	o263.5 -128 u263.5 -128	o271.5 -115 u271.5 -115	o266.5 -130 u266.5 -102	o260.5 -115 u260.5 -115	o263.5 -137 u263.5 -137	-	-
Philip Rivers IND QB JAX @ IND Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o200.5 -113 u200.5 -111	o200.5 -137 u200.5 -137	o206.5 -114 u206.5 -114	o198.5 -136 u198.5 -120	o196.5 -115 u196.5 -115	o201.5 -114 u201.5 -115	o200.5 -115 u200.5 -115	o206.5 -137 u206.5 -137	-	-
Quinn Ewers MIA QB TB @ MIA Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	-	o201.5 -137 u201.5 -137	-	o208.5 -121 u208.5 -135	o201.5 -115 u201.5 -115	-	-	o201.5 -137 u201.5 -137	-	-
Sam Darnold SEA QB SEA @ CAR Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o228.5 -111 u228.5 -113	o233.5 -137 u233.5 -137	o225.5 -114 u225.5 -114	o225.5 -149 u225.5 -109	o233.5 -115 u233.5 -115	o228.5 -115 u228.5 -114	o220.5 -120 u220.5 -110	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	-	-
Shedeur Sanders CLE QB PIT @ CLE Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o177.5 -112 u177.5 -112	o175.5 -137 u175.5 -137	o177.5 -114 u177.5 -114	o177.5 -129 u177.5 -126	o175.5 -115 u175.5 -115	o176.5 -115 u176.5 -114	o175.5 -120 u175.5 -110	o175.5 -137 u175.5 -137	-	-
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB JAX @ IND Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o236.5 -111 u236.5 -113	o233.5 -137 u233.5 -137	o233.5 -114 u233.5 -114	o234.5 -136 u234.5 -120	o237.5 -115 u237.5 -115	o236.5 -130 u236.5 -102	o230.5 -120 u230.5 -110	o237.5 -137 u237.5 -137	-	-
Tyler Shough NO QB NO @ TEN Dec 28 1:00 PM ET	o220.5 -112 u220.5 -112	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	o218.5 -114 u218.5 -114	o216.5 -144 u216.5 -113	o222.5 -115 u222.5 -115	o220.5 -113 u220.5 -118	o220.5 -115 u220.5 -115	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	-	-
Geno Smith LV QB NYG @ LV Dec 28 4:05 PM ET	o207.5 -112 u207.5 -112	o210.5 -137 u210.5 -137	o207.5 -114 u207.5 -114	o212.5 -125 u212.5 -129	o210.5 -115 u210.5 -115	o208.5 -114 u208.5 -117	o205.5 -115 u205.5 -115	o211.5 -137 u211.5 -137	-	-
Jaxson Dart NYG QB NYG @ LV Dec 28 4:05 PM ET	o187.5 -113 u187.5 -111	o184.5 -137 u184.5 -137	o187.5 -114 u187.5 -114	o192.5 -113 u192.5 -144	o184.5 -115 u184.5 -115	o186.5 -117 u186.5 -114	o185.5 -115 u185.5 -115	o188.5 -137 u188.5 -137	-	-
Jalen Hurts PHI QB PHI @ BUF Dec 28 4:25 PM ET	o187.5 -112 u187.5 -112	o192.5 -137 u192.5 -137	o189.5 -114 u189.5 -114	o189.5 -135 u189.5 -121	o192.5 -115 u192.5 -115	o189.5 -107 u189.5 -127	o190.5 -110 u190.5 -120	o190.5 -137 u190.5 -137	-	-
Josh Allen BUF QB PHI @ BUF Dec 28 4:25 PM ET	o194.5 -113 u194.5 -111	o200.5 -137 u200.5 -137	o195.5 -114 u195.5 -114	o198.5 -128 u198.5 -128	o200.5 -115 u200.5 -115	o195.5 -112 u195.5 -120	o190.5 -115 u190.5 -115	o195.5 -137 u195.5 -137	-	-
Brock Purdy SF QB CHI @ SF Dec 28 8:20 PM ET	o257.5 -112 u257.5 -112	o260.5 -137 u260.5 -137	o256.5 -114 u256.5 -114	o257.5 -128 u257.5 -128	o260.5 -115 u260.5 -115	o257.5 -114 u257.5 -115	o255.5 -110 u255.5 -120	o258.5 -137 u258.5 -137	-	-
Caleb Williams CHI QB CHI @ SF Dec 28 8:20 PM ET	o221.5 -113 u221.5 -111	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	o224.5 -114 u224.5 -114	o219.5 -151 u219.5 -108	o222.5 -115 u222.5 -115	o223.5 -115 u223.5 -114	o220.5 -115 u220.5 -115	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	-	-
Kirk Cousins ATL QB LAR @ ATL Dec 29 8:15 PM ET	o221.5 -112 u221.5 -113	o220.5 -137 u220.5 -137	o221.5 -114 u221.5 -114	o222.5 -129 u222.5 -126	o220.5 -115 u220.5 -115	o221.5 -115 u221.5 -115	o220.5 -110 u220.5 -120	o220.5 -137 u220.5 -137	-	-
Matthew Stafford LAR QB LAR @ ATL Dec 29 8:15 PM ET	o269.5 -111 u269.5 -113	o270.5 -137 u270.5 -137	o267.5 -114 u267.5 -114	o268.5 -129 u268.5 -126	o274.5 -115 u274.5 -115	o270.5 -114 u270.5 -115	o265.5 -120 u265.5 -110	o265.5 -137 u265.5 -137	-	-