The No. 1 overall pick is often the least interesting part of the NFL Draft. In many cases, the selection has been clear for weeks, such as Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville last season. That’s not the case this year, with real intrigue in the NFL Draft odds market surrounding who will be the No. 1 pick.
Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson has been the presumed first selection for months, but Georgia defensive lineman Travon Walker has shot up the NFL Draft betting board and is now the favorite after opening as high as 30-1 at BetMGM.
After previously looking at the NFL Draft odds for quarterbacks and wide receivers, Props.com breaks down defensive linemen and linebackers ahead of this week’s event in Las Vegas.
All odds updated as of 3:10 p.m. ET on April 25.
With The First Pick, Jacksonville Selects …
Because the Jacksonville Jaguars are, well, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the franchise has the No. 1 overall pick for the second straight year. The Jags have long been expected to bolster their defensive line by taking quarterback-wrecker Hutchinson. But that changed overnight Sunday.
Hutchinson was still the -170 favorite at DraftKings late Sunday, with Walker at +135, and BetMGM and FanDuel had similar prices.
Meanwhile, Caesars Sportsbook differed sharply. After being in line with the others on the top pick in recent days, Caesars has moved Walker to the -200 favorite and dropped Hutchinson to +210. The line later moved to Walker -220 (Hutchinson +160).
The flip from Hutchinson to Walker resulted in chaos up and down the NFL odds board at Caesars (and, subsequently, other books).
“Hutchinson going from the prohibitive favorite for No. 1 pick to Walker, that causes a ripple effect of everything,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Everything has to be adjusted. Not just the first-pick odds, but the Over/Unders, the second, third and fourth picks [and so on]. There are just so many different markets that you have to be concerned about.
“That’s the importance of being on top of things and being quick to adjust when something comes out.”
Hours after Caesars made its move, DraftKings shifted to Walker as the -160 favorite with Hutchinson at +140; Bet MGM went to Walker -175/Hutchinson +135 (and is now at -200/+150), and FanDuel posted Walker -175/Hutchinson +150 (and is now -200/+250).
Walker had consistently been slotted at No. 2 in several mock drafts, but veteran NFL writer Peter King put Walker at No. 1 in his mock draft Monday. Also, several NFL insiders have noted Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke’s propensity to go after players with high upside, and as the ultra-athletic Walker definitely fits that description.
If the Jaguars go for Walker, Hutchinson is a near-lock to go No. 2 to Detroit after starring at Michigan. The former Wolverine is currently -130 at DraftKings to be drafted second.
Fate Of Thibodeaux
Oregon pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux has been the consensus pick to go No. 2 behind Hutchinson. But if Walker is taken first, Thibodeaux will likely slide down the board.
Most mock drafts predict he won’t go beyond the New York Jets at No. 4. However, from the “for what it’s worth” department, King’s mock draft has Thibodeaux falling all the way to No. 13. Does that reflect some inside knowledge about Thibodeaux’s shaky status? Or is it the case of an “insider” trying to draw some eyeballs to his articles? We’ll find out Thursday.
If bettors believe Thibodeaux could slide, they can play his draft position Over 4.5 at plus-money (as high as +155 at Caesars).
More Draft Positions
Bookmakers have slotted Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson as the fourth pass rusher off the board behind Hutchinson, Walker and Thibodeaux, putting his draft position prop at 9.5 (Over -115/Under -115).
Mock drafts show a range of outcomes for Johnson. A combined ESPN draft with Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay put Johnson seventh, while King has him sliding all the way to No. 23. A CBS Sports consensus of 12 mock drafts slots him 14th.
Purdue pass rusher George Karlaftis offers another test of whether NFL media insiders or oddsmakers have the right line on a player’s position. Karlaftis’ position prop is 22.5 at DraftKings (Over -115/Under -115). The CBS consensus does have Karlaftis at 18, but The Athletic puts him at 23, ESPN at 28 and King out of the first round entirely.
No Edge On Defining ‘Edge’
Some of the most popular NFL Draft props involve picking how many players at each position will be selected in the first round. But there’s no need to research defensive linemen and linebackers separately. Sportsbooks have thrown up their hands in trying to define the positions of so-called “edge” players.
Is a prospect a true defensive end or a pass-rushing linebacker? Bookmakers no longer care to try to handicap the answer, as they’re not offering “how many will be taken in the first round” props on defensive linemen or linebackers.
However, a prop on who will be the first linebacker taken is available on the NFL Draft odds board at some shops. But the field has seemingly been limited to traditional linebackers, eschewing any questions about “edge” players.
As such, Utah’s Devin Lloyd is the -500 favorite at DraftKings to be the first linebacker off the board. Georgia’s Nakobe Dean is next at +400. Everyone else is 10-1 or higher.
At least for this year, a prop on who will be the first defensive lineman taken seems to be irrelevant, with the No. 1 overall pick battle between Hutchinson and Walker serving the same purpose.