Madness struck the East Region bracket in a big way Thursday, as No. 2 seed Kentucky, which was one of the favorites to win the national championship, lost in overtime to 15th-seeded St. Peter’s. Are more upsets in store for Friday’s two games that dot the NCAA East Region odds board?
The highest seed in action Friday is No. 3 Purdue, which is a big favorite against Ivy League champion and 14th-seeded Yale. In the region’s other matchup, No. 6 seed Texas and No. 11 Virginia Tech clash in a virtual pick ’em contest.
Props.com breaks down all eight first-round games, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on NCAA Tournament East Region odds and action. Check back for updates through tipoff of these Thursday and Friday contests.
NCAA East Region Odds and Betting Action
Matchup | Time | Spread | Over/Under |
No. 16 Norfolk State vs No. 1 Baylor | 2 p.m. ET Thursday | Baylor -20.5 (-115) | 136.5 |
No. 9 Marquette vs No. 8 North Carolina | 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday | North Carolina -3.5 | 152.5 |
No. 12 Indiana vs No. 5 St. Mary’s | 7:20 p.m. ET Thursday | St. Mary’s -2.5 | 126.5 |
No. 13 Akron vs No. 4 UCLA | 9:50 p.m. ET Thursday | UCLA -13.5 | 128.5 |
No. 14 Yale vs No. 3 Purdue | 2 p.m. ET Friday | Purdue -16 | 144.5 |
No. 11 Virginia Tech vs No. 6 Texas | 4:30 p.m. ET Friday | Texas -1.5 (-115) | 124.5 |
No. 15 St. Peter’s vs No. 2 Kentucky | 7:10 p.m. ET Thursday | Kentucky -17.5 | 131.5 |
No. 10 San Francisco vs No. 7 Murray State | 9:40 p.m. ET Thursday | Murray State -1.5 | 137.5 |
Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of Noon ET on March 18.
No. 14 Yale vs No. 3 Purdue
Game information: 2 p.m. ET Friday, at Milwaukee (TBS)
UPDATE 11 A.M. ET FRIDAY: Purdue remains -16.5 at PointsBet USA as we move closer to tipoff. Yale is taking a majority of spread tickets, at 53%, but 59% of the spread money is still backing Purdue. The total opened at 143.5, bouncing up and down throughout the week. The Over/Under has currently landed on 144.5, which is a tick above last night’s number at 143.5. PointsBet USA reports 51% of the tickets and 77% of the money on the Over.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Purdue bounced between -15.5 and -16 a few times this week, then went to -16.5 this afternoon at PointsBet USA. The Boilermakers are taking a slim majority of spread tickets, at 52%, but that’s translating into 79% of spread dollars. The total opened at 143.5, bottomed out at 141.5 midmorning today, surged to 145 briefly late this morning, and it’s now back at the 143.5 opener. The Over is seeing 57% of tickets/77% of money.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET MONDAY: Purdue (27-7 SU, 13-19-2) made it to the Big Ten title game, but has been an awful team at the betting window of late, going 0-8-2 ATS in its last 10 games (6-4 SU). In the conference final, Purdue closed as a 2.5-point favorite and lost to Iowa 75-66. The Boilermakers are also 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.
Yale (19-11 SU, 14-15 ATS) reached the tournament by winning the Ivy League crown. The Bulldogs edged Princeton 66-64 as a 3.5-point underdog, moving to 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games.
The Under has hit in five straight games for Yale and is 5-1 in Purdue’s last six outings.
Nationally, BetMGM opened Purdue at 17.5 in the NCAA East Region odds market. That number quickly dropped to -15.5, where it remains tonight. Although Purdue is taking 64% of tickets and 78% of cash, respected Yale money brought this line down Sunday night.
“Yale against Purdue was [a] hot play,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
The total has dropped from 144.5 to 142.5, though the Over is seeing 61% of tickets/63% of cash.
No. 11 Virginia Tech vs No. 6 Texas
Game information: 4:30 p.m. ET Friday, at Milwaukee (TBS)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Texas opened -2 at TwinSpires Sportsbook and currently stands -1, shortly before tipoff. Tickets and money are both in the 2/1 range on Virginia Tech. “VaTech is a very trendy ‘dog,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. “We’ll need Texas in this spot.” The total currently stands at 124.5, down a full point from the 125.5 opener. The Under is seeing 57% of tickets and 64% of dollars.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: About an hour before tipoff, Texas has risen a half-point from -1 to -1.5, and there’s a bit of juice attached to that number at -115. Contrary to that line movement, 61% of spread bets and 72% of spread cash at PointsBet USA is on the underdog Hokies. The total has plummeted from 124 Thursday night to 122.5, and there’s juice here, too, at Over -115. There’s two-way action, with 71% of tickets on the Over and 54% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Texas has been pinned to -1 all week at PointsBet USA, where Virginia Tech is taking 70% of spread bets and 78% of spread dollars. The total has been nominally more active, going from 123.5 to 124.5 Sunday night, backing up to 124 (Under -120) Wednesday and now sitting at 124 flat. The Over is drawing 60% of bets, while 55% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET MONDAY: Virginia Tech (23-12 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) is probably not on anybody’s wish list of opponents, following its run to the ACC championship. After going 9-2 SU (6-4-1 ATS) to end the regular season, the Hokies won four games in four days (3-1 ATS) to go from on the bubble — and, honestly, likely out of the field of 68 — to the ACC’s automatic bid. In the conference final, VaTech pounded Duke 82-67 as a 5.5-point underdog.
The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games, but are 2-6 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tourney games.
Texas has lost three in a row and is 2-4 SU/0-6 ATS entering Friday’s contest. The Longhorns (21-11 SU, 12-20 ATS) tumbled to TCU in the Big 12 semis 65-60 laying 5.5 points. Texas was one of the worst spread-covering outfits in the country during the regular season, at 335th among 358 teams. Additionally, the Longhorns are on slides of 0-4 ATS as favorites and 6-18 ATS in March Madness games.
Texas remains painted to -1.5 tonight at BetMGM (but with reduced -105 juice), though VaTech is attracting 88% of tickets and 95% of money. The total has dropped a point from 124.5 to 123.5, but the Over is seeing 83% of tickets/92% of cash.
No. 16 Norfolk State vs No. 1 Baylor
Game information: 2 p.m. ET Thursday, at Fort Worth, Texas (TBS)
UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Two hours before tipoff, Baylor is a 20.5-point favorite at BetMGM, matching the opening number. A modest majority of action is on big underdog Norfolk State, at 54% of spread tickets and 57% of spread dollars. The total is down a point to 136.5, with 55% of tickets on the Over/58% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: PointsBet USA’s NCAA East Region odds market opened Baylor a 20.5-point chalk, spent most of the past couple of days at -21, then returned to -20.5 this afternoon. The Bears are netting 63% of spread tickets and 70% of spread money. The total opened at 138 and inched down to 137.5 this afternoon, with 69% of tickets/84% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET MONDAY: Baylor (26-6 SU, 16-14-2 ATS) is one of two No. 1 seeds from the Big 12, with Kansas sitting atop the Midwest Region. The Bears got the East top slot despite losing to Oklahoma in Thursday’s Big 12 tournament quarterfinals 72-67 as a 7.5-point favorite. That halted a five-game SU run for Baylor (2-2-1 ATS).
Last March, Baylor made the six-game run through the bracket, thumping Gonzaga 86-70 as a 4.5-point underdog in the championship game for the school’s first men’s basketball title. And Baylor covered in the last five of those six games, obviously all neutral-site contests.
Norfolk State (24-6, 17-9-1 ATS) won the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tourney and was promptly awarded a date against the defending national champion. In Saturday’s MEAC final, the Spartans topped Coppin State 72-57 as 8-point favorites. Norfolk State has won six in a row SU and cashed in four of its last five outings. The Spartans are also 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral-site tilts.
BetMGM opened Baylor -20.5 and is now up to -21.5. But as of 10 p.m. ET Monday, 57% of early tickets and 81% of early dollars are on big underdog Norfolk. The total is stable at 137.5, with 60% of tickets/91% of money on the Over.
No. 9 Marquette vs No. 8 North Carolina
Game information: 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, at Fort Worth, Texas (TBS)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Just more than hour before game time, North Carolina is laying 3.5 points at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -3. Ticket count and money are both in the 3/1 range on the Tar Heels. “It’s all UNC on straight bets and parlays. Marquette is one of our bigger needs of the day.” The total opened at 150, was at 152 late last night and is now 153, with 59% of tickets/63% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Four hours before game time, North Carolina is laying 3.5 at BetMGM, after opening -2.5 on Sunday night. Ticket count is about 2/1 and money just beyond 2.5/1 on the Tar Heels. The total rose from 150.5 to 152.5, although the Over is seeing 57% of tickets/59% of money.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: North Carolina opened as a 3-point favorite at PointsBet USA, went to -3 (-120) Tuesday and moved out to -3.5 late this afternoon. The Tar Heels are taking 72% of tickets, but money is two-way, at 53% on Carolina. The total is up to 152.5 from a 150.5 opener, although the Under is seeing 71% of bets/54% of money.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET MONDAY: North Carolina made a strong run late in the regular season, capped by an impressive finale in a 13-point road win over Duke, then reached the ACC tournament semifinals. However, the Tar Heels’ 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) surge ended right there, as they lost 72-59 to VaTech on Friday as 3-point faves. And UNC (24-9 SU, 16-16-1) likely needed that winning stretch, as one month ago, it wasn’t under NCAA Tournament consideration.
North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tourney contests and 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral-site games.
Marquette (19-12 SU, 16-15 ATS) didn’t do itself any favors late in the season, but still snuck into the field of 64. The Golden Eagles alternated SU wins and losses over their last seven games and are on a 1-7 ATS purge. In the Big East semifinals, Marquette closed as a 3-point favorite and lost outright to Creighton 74-63.
On the upside: the Golden Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as an underdog.
These teams met last February in North Carolina, and Marquette cruised to an 83-70 victory despite being a 9.5-point pup.
North Carolina opened as a 2.5-point chalk at BetMGM and advanced to -3.5. As of 10 p.m. ET Monday, it’s all Tar Heels early, at 86% of tickets and 97% of money. The total is up a point from 150.5 to 151.5, with 87% of early bets/95% of early cash on the Over.
No. 12 Indiana vs No. 5 St. Mary’s
Game information: 7:20 p.m. ET Thursday, at Portland, Ore. (TBS)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: St. Mary’s moved from -2.5 to -3, then back to -2.5, where the line stands about an hour before tipoff. Indiana is seeing 59% of spread tickets, while 56% of spread cash is on St. Mary’s. “Indiana is one of the trendier first-round ‘dogs. We’ll need St. Mary’s.” The total is down to 125 from a 127 opener, with the Under taking 58% of tickets/59% of money.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: After Indiana’s play-in win over Wyoming on Tuesday, PointsBet USA opened St. Mary’s -3 (-105). The Gaels dipped to -2.5 this afternoon, with Indiana drawing 72% of early spread bets and a modest majority 52% of early spread dollars. The total is stable at 126.5, with 63% of bets on the Over/72% of cash on the Under.
Per usual, St. Mary’s was the bridesmaid to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but put together another solid season at 25-7 SU/19-11-2 ATS. In the WCC final, the Gaels pushed as 13-point underdogs in an 82-69 loss to the Zags, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. That ended St. Mary’s five-game SU run (3-2 ATS), which included a 67-57 home upset of Gonzaga in the regular-season capper Feb. 26.
The Gaels are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 outings overall, but neutral sites haven’t treated bettors well. St. Mary’s is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine on neutral floors.
St. Mary’s will meet No. 12 seed Indiana (21-13 SU, 20-14 ATS), which beat Wyoming 66-58 laying 4.5 points in Tuesday’s First Four play-in round. The Hoosiers have cashed in five straight games and seven of their last eight. Indiana is on further ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog, 5-0 on neutral courts and 6-1 as a neutral-site pup.
The Under is 7-1 in the Gaels’ last eight NCAA Tourney games.
No. 13 Akron vs No. 4 UCLA
Game information: 9:50 p.m. ET Thursday, at Portland, Ore. (TBS)
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET THURSDAY: WynnBet opened UCLA at -15.5 (even) and is down to -13 as tipoff approaches. It’s two-way action with a lean toward the Bruins, at 54% of tickets and 55% of money. The total opened at 129, went to 128.5 Wednesday night, then to 128 this afternoon. The Over is netting 84% of tickets, but 81% of dollars are on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: UCLA opened as a 14.5-point favorite at PointsBet USA and quickly dropped to -13 (-120) Sunday night. The Bruins adjusted to -13 flat Tuesday night and are now back at -13 (-120). UCLA is taking 61% of early bets and 54% of early cash on the spread. The total fell from 129.5 to 127.5 by Tuesday night, then by early Wednesday climbed to 129, where it remains now. The Over is landing 69% of bets, while 59% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET MONDAY: UCLA is 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, including a 6-1 SU surge (5-2 ATS) to cap the regular season. The Bruins (25-7 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) advanced to the Pac-12 championship game, losing 84-76 as a 2-point ‘dog to Arizona, the No. 1 seed in the South Region.
UCLA, which suffered an overtime loss to Gonzaga in a memorable Final Four game last year, is 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site starts. The Bruins are also 6-2-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk this year.
Akron (24-9 SU, 17-14 ATS) reached the Big Dance by winning the Mid-American Conference tournament. In the final, the Zips stomped Kent State 75-55 as a 1-point underdog. Akron is riding an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) and is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral-site outings. The Zips are also 9-2 ATS when catching points this season.
The Over is 5-1 in the Bruins’ last six games, but the Under is 4-1 in the Zips’ last five.
ODDS/ACTION UPDATE: This line is on the move early, and toward the underdog. UCLA opened -15.5 and is down to -13.5 at BetMGM as of 10 p.m. ET Monday. Akron is attracting 86% of spread bets and 93% of spread dollars. The total dipped from 129.5 to 128.5 Monday, with 72% of bets/92% of cash on the Under.
No. 15 St. Peter’s vs No. 2 Kentucky
Game information: 7:10 p.m. ET Thursday, at Indianapolis (CBS)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: An hour ahead of game time, Kentucky is an 18-point favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -17, rising to -18, then dipping to -17.5. The Wildcats are netting 70% of tickets and 80% of money on the spread. “Kentucky is our biggest liability of the day. The Wildcats are also our biggest futures liability to win it all,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total nudged from 131.5 to 132, with 63% of tickets/59% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Kentucky toggled between -17.5 and -18 a couple of times on PointsBet USA’s NCAA East Region odds board. Since Tuesday night, the Wildcats have been stable at -17.5 (-115), with ticket count 2/1 and money 3/1 on the favorite. The total opened at 132.5 and spent most of the past couple of days at various iterations of 132. It’s currently 132 (Under -115), with 61% of bets on the Over/70% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Kentucky (26-7 SU, 14-18-1 ATS) hasn’t done much in the spread-covering department of late, at 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games. That includes failing to cover in both outings in the SEC tournament. The Wildcats bowed out in the semifinals, losing to Tennessee 69-62 as a 3-point favorite. Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last six at neutral sites.
St. Peter’s, meanwhile, has been hot on the court and for bettors, entering East Region play on a 7-0 SU and ATS tear. The Peacocks (19-11 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) beat Monmouth 60-54 laying 2.5 points in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference final. St. Peter’s is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 neutral-site contests.
The Under is 5-1 in St. Peter’s last six games overall, while the Over is 4-1 in Kentucky’s last five neutral-site outings.
Kentucky opened -17.5 Sunday night at BetMGM and remains there Monday night. Big ‘dog St. Peters is taking 59% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars. The total fell from 133.5 to 132.5 and now sits at 131.5, with 87% of early tickets/90% of early cash on the Under.
No. 10 San Francisco vs No. 7 Murray State
Game information: 9:40 p.m. ET Thursday, at Indianapolis (CBS)
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET: Forty minutes before tipoff, Murray State is a 2-point favorite at WynnBet, after opening as a 1-point ‘dog and quickly going to +1.5 Sunday night. But the line then flipped to Racers -2 Wednesday night, in part on news that San Francisco forward Yauhen Massalski (knee) won’t play tonight. Murray State is netting 62% of tickets and 60% of cash on the spread. The total opened at 138.5 and bottomed out at 136.5 Wednesday night, and it’s at 137.5 shortly before tipoff. The Over is drawing 74% of tickets, but just 54% of money.
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This matchup jumped the fence at PointsBet USA, opening at San Francisco -2 Sunday night and scooting to Murray State -1 (-120) Monday morning. This evening, the Racers are -1 (-125) while taking 79% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. The total opened at 138.5, spent much of the past three days at 138 (Under -120) and 138 (Under -125), then tonight dropped to 136.5 (Under -120). The Over is seeing 57% of bets, but 61% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: With San Francisco getting an at-large bid, the West Coast Conference got three teams into March Madness. The Dons (24-9 SU, 13-18-1 ATS) made it to the WCC semifinals, losing to Gonzaga 81-71 but covering as 14.5-point pups. San Francisco enters the Tournament on a 6-2 ATS roll.
Meanwhile, Murray State has been absolutely torrid on the floor, though not quite so much at the betting window. The Racers (30-2 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) are on a 20-0 SU firestorm, which is the second-longest active winning streak behind South Dakota State. However, they’re just 10-9-1 ATS in that span, failing to cash in their last three outings. Murray State topped Morehead State 71-67 in the Ohio Valley Conference final, but failed to cover as an 8-point chalk.
The Over hit in both of Murray State’s OVC tourney games, but the Under is 7-3 in the Racers’ last 10 outings. The Under is also on a 7-1-1 run for San Francisco in neutral-site contests.
This matchup opened a pick ’em on BetMGM’s NCAA East Region odds board and is at Murray State -1.5 Monday night. Early ticket count and money are both in the 6/1 range on the Racers. The total is down to 136.5 from a 138.5 opener, but current splits were unavailable.