With NBA training camps set to open soon, Props.com offers a breakdown of the league’s 30 teams from an NBA season win total perspective. After previewing the Atlantic, Central and Southeast divisions last week, we move on to the Western Conference, starting with a look at the Pacific Division.
Unlike last season, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the league to reduce the regular season to 72 games, the NBA returns to an 82-game schedule in 2021-22.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Sept. 22.
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Win Total: 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
2020-21 Record: 42-30 (3rd in Pacific), plus 1-0 in Western Conference play-in game
Projected Starters: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard,, Wayne Ellington
— The Lakers enter the 2021-22 season with the highest victory projection of any Western Conference team, per DraftKings. While Los Angeles went 52-19 during its title-winning 2019-20 campaign—a season reduced to 71 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic—the franchise hasn’t topped this win total since posting identical 57-25 records in 2009-10 and 2010-11.
— The Lakers open the season with 12 of their first 15 games at Staples Center. That’s a gift from the NBA schedule makers, considering the squad added a slew of new (and past-their-prime) parts during the offseason. And LeBron James and Co. would be wise to take advantage of that gift, because Los Angeles plays 13 of its final 19 games on the road. In fact, after March 1, the Lakers’ longest homestand is two games—and it happens only once.
— Los Angeles was consistently inconsistent in 2020-21, posting five winning streaks of four-plus games but four losing skids of three games or more.
— James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis missed a combined 63 of a possible 144 games last season. So it’s hardly surprising that the Lakers were among the league’s bottom 10 teams in scoring offense (22nd) and three-pointers made (25th). The presence of Westbrook, a triple-double machine who helped the Washington Wizards rank third in scoring last year, should positively impact L.A.’s offensive production. Of course, that’s if—and a big “if”—James and Davis can stay on the court.
— There’s no doubt the Lakers have the talent to get back to the NBA Finals. There’s also no doubt this is an aging team playing in a division (and conference) loaded with young, rising stars. Simply put, L.A.’s chances of eclipsing this win total will come down to one factor: health.
Phoenix Suns
Projected Win Total: 51.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
2020-21 Record: 51-21 (1st in Pacific)
Projected Starters: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder
— The Suns needed just 15 playoff games to roll through the Lakers, Nuggets and Clippers on the way to their first Western Conference title since the 1992-93 season. Phoenix then boosted its postseason record to 14-3 when it won the first two games of the NBA Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks. Although the Suns dropped the next four games in a row, this franchise is clearly on the upswing with a young, talented core to go with ageless All-Star point guard Chris Paul.
— There are two ways to look at this win total: The oddsmakers are disrespecting the defending division champs by projecting them to finish one game behind the Lakers, or Vegas is showing love to a franchise that prior to last year hadn’t won as many as 49 games since posting a 54-28 mark in 2009-10.
— Last season, the Suns led all Western Conference squads in conference wins (30) and road success (24-12). Throw in a strong home record (27-9), and it’s easy to see how Phoenix posted a 17-win improvement from the previous season.
— The Suns don’t face any extraordinarily long road trips or sustained stretches against dominant teams this season. The most difficult portion of their schedule: a 10-game run from Jan. 24-Feb. 10, when Phoenix travels to Utah, Atlanta, Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia, while also hosting the Jazz, Spurs, Nets and defending champion Bucks.
— Phoenix ranked second in field-goal offense last year (49 percent, trailing only Brooklyn). The Suns also finished in the top 10 in three-point shooting (7th overall), scoring offense (7th) and assists (3rd). A big reason for this success? The dynamic backcourt duo of Devin Booker (25.6 points per game, 48-percent shooting) and Paul (16.4 points, 8.9 assists, 1.4 steals per game).
Golden State Warriors
Projected Win Total: 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
2020-21 Record: 39-33 (4th in Pacific), plus 0-1 in Western Conference play-in game
Projected Starters: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, James Wiseman, Andrew Wiggins
— The Warriors didn’t add any major free agents to their roster in the offseason. However, they do get back one huge missing piece in shooting guard Klay Thompson, who suffered a devastating knee injury during the 2019 NBA Finals, then missed all of 2020-21 after tearing his Achilles in the offseason. Thompson’s return following a two-season layoff is why oddsmakers project Golden State to finish 14 games over .500 this season after clearing the breakeven mark by just six games in 2020-21.
— Nearly two-thirds of Golden State’s victories last year (25 of 39) were double-digit blowouts. That confirms this truth: When the Warriors’ sharpshooters are on, few teams in the league can match their scoring prowess—even when they’re missing one of the best shooters in NBA history.
— The Warriors struggled against the Lakers, Clippers and Suns last season, going 3-7. However, they were strong overall against the Western Conference (25-17) and did a solid job defending their home court (25-11).
— Speaking of home court, Golden State will enjoy homestands of seven and eight games this season. Furthermore, the Warriors don’t have any road swings longer than five games. The toughest stretch of the season? It begins on Christmas Day and covers just 22 days, with trips to Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Milwaukee, Chicago and Memphis mixed in with home outings versus the Nuggets, Heat and Cavaliers.
— During its run of five consecutive NBA Finals appearances from 2014-15 to 2018-19, Golden State averaged a whopping 63.8 victories per year. However, in 20 seasons prior to that prolific run, the Warriors won more than 47 games just twice: 2007-08 and 2013-14.
Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Win Total: 45.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 47-25 (2nd in Pacific)
Projected Starters: Paul George, Eric Bledsoe, Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris Sr.
— Good luck predicting how the Clippers will perform to expectations this season, given they will be without Kawhi Leonard (ACL surgery) likely until February, if not later. Yes, Paul George carried the club after Leonard went down last season, averaging 29.9 points, 10 rebounds and 5.4 assists in Los Angeles’ final 10 playoff outings (Western Conference semifinals/finals). But that was a short flurry of desperate dominance. It will be much tougher for George to lift the Clippers on his shoulders for most (or all) of the regular season, especially in the highly competitive West. Unless, of course, reserve shooting guard Terance Mann recaptures his playoff glory from a few months ago.
— With Leonard and George working in tandem last season, the Clippers owned top-10 rankings in scoring offense (10th), three-pointers made (6th) and field-goal percentage (5th).
— The Lakers weren’t the only SoCal team to garner a front-loaded home schedule. Seventeen of the Clippers’ first 23 games take place at Staples Center, which could be a godsend given Leonard’s absence. Things get a little tricky after Christmas, though. From Dec. 26-Feb. 15, Los Angeles will endure a 31-game stretch that’s chock-full of high-profile opponents (Brooklyn twice, Denver twice, Dallas twice, Memphis twice, Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, New York, Miami, Golden State and the rival Lakers).
Adding to the degree of difficulty are trips to New Orleans, San Antonio, Toronto, Orlando, Charlotte, Indiana and Washington.
— Even including the past two pandemic-shortened seasons—and even before Leonard and George arrived in L.A.—the once-moribund Clippers enjoyed a lot of recent regular-season success, winning between 47 and 57 games in eight of the last nine seasons. The lone exception: They went 42-40 in 2017-18.
Sacramento Kings
Projected Win Total: 36.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
2020-21 Record: 31-41 (5th in Pacific)
Projected Starters: De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley III, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes
— Winning the NBA Summer League is not exactly a barometer one should use when deciding whether to take a shot on a team’s win total. Yet there’s a lot of intrigue surrounding the Kings simply because they blew through the Summer League undefeated and unchallenged. The main source of that intrigue: explosive rookie Davion Mitchell, the star of Baylor’s 2021 national championship squad who carried Sacramento all summer.
— Mitchell has already developed a reputation for being a premier perimeter defender, something Sacramento desperately needs. Last season, the Kings ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and 28th in scoring defense (117.4 points per game). That defensive ineptness contributed greatly to Sacramento’s 21 double-digit losses, as well as a pair of nine-game losing streaks.
— The Kings ranked 29th overall in catch-and-shoot three-pointers last season, a baffling statistic considering Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes and superb rookie Tyrese Haliburton each shot 39 percent or better from beyond the arc. Sacramento had eight different players average double figures in scoring last year, led by De’Aaron Fox (25.2 points per game, along with 7.2 assists and 1.5 steals per contest).
— Of the six teams projected for last-place divisional finishes this season (Detroit, Toronto, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Houston and Sacramento). the Kings have the highest season win total. But if you think they can top 37 wins, you’re betting against recent history: Sacramento has done that just once in the past 13 seasons (they went 39-43 in 2018-19).
Oh, and for the record: The Kings won the Summer League in 2015 … then went 29-53 the following season.