Looking for the best NBA first basket predictions and top first points plays today? You’re in luck! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NBA first basket picks for every day of the basketball season.
We mean it, because we deliver our best bets for every day there’s a game on the calendar. No load management here!
Below are our best NBA first basket predictions today. Be sure to check our NBA player props for more top selections for the current NBA slate.
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Best NBA First Basket Predictions Today
Every day during the NBA regular season and playoffs, we run through our favorite first basket bets and predictions of the night.
Tuesday, December 16th
It’s the NBA Cup Final, featuring the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs. It should be a show as Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson lead their respective teams for all of the marbles.
As far as first point plays go, let’s see if we can hit another winner after Jaylen Brown came through for us last night.
Most important injury situations for Tuesday:
Miles McBride (OUT)
Opening tipoff win percentages so far this season (via BettingPros):
- Spurs (72.0%)
- Knicks (48.0%)
Highest first shot percentages within this game:
- Jalen Brunson (23 starts, 21.7% first shot)
- Victor Wembanyama (12 starts, 16.7% first shot)
- Devin Vassell (25 starts, 16.0% first shot)
- OG Anunoby (16 starts, 12.5% first shot)
- Harrison Barnes (25 starts, 12.0% first shot)
- De’Aaron Fox (17 starts, 11.8% first shot)
Where should we be looking with our first point selections?
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Wemby returned in style in the NBA Cup Semis, dominating the Thunder in just over 20 minutes off the bench. He’ll still be on a minutes limit for the finals against the Knicks, but we’ve seen what kind of upside he carries. even in limited action.
His presence is also notable for first basket purposes, as he’s led the Spurs to a strong opening tip win percentage so far in 2025/26. He also has the team’s highest first shot percentage this season.
As we mentioned, Wembanyama did not start in the semis, and it hasn’t yet been announced whether he’ll be in the starting five tonight.
We’ll obviously need to track that news. Luke Kornet would likely start in Wemby’s place, making San Antonio less appealing from a first basket perspective.
If Wembanyama starts — he stated to the press that he was ready to rejoin the lineup — we like him to score the game’s first points at around +410. It’s the chalky pick, but he’s a generational player and will want to assert his dominance early. Wemby is averaging a career-best 27.7 points on 19.1 field goal attempts per 36 in his third season.
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Monday, December 15th
There are five NBA games on tonight’s schedule, and we’re here to break things down from a DFS and betting perspective.
Most important injury situations for Monday:
James Harden (Q)
Anthony Davis (Q)
Zach Edey (OUT)
Jusuf Nurkic (OUT)
RJ Barrett (OUT)
Nurkic’s absence is noteworthy, as he’s guided Utah to a nice winning rate on opening tips.
Highest opening tipoff win percentages so far this season (via BettingPros):
- Jazz (75.0%)
- Grizzlies (60.0%)
- Raptors (57.7%)
- Heat (52.0%)
- Nuggets (45.8%)
Highest first shot percentages on this slate (minimum of 15 starts):
- Bam Adebayo (26.3%)
- John Collins (25.0%)
- Ace Bailey (20.0%)
- Norman Powell (20.0%)
- Lauri Markkanen (17.4%)
- Jaylen Brown (16.7%)
- Jaylen Wells (16.0%)
- Kevin Durant (15.0%)
- Cade Cunningham (14.3%)
Notable omissions due to lack of sample size:
Cedric Coward (12 starts, 41.7% first shot)
Anthony Davis (11 starts, 18.2% first shot)
Ja Morant (13 starts, 15.4% first shot)
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Quick note: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks.
That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.
The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.
Jaylen Brown First Points (+510) – Payton Pritchard is currently questionable with neck spasms for tonight’s home game against the Pistons. Jaylen Brown has been a usage monster in the absence of Jayson Tatum and owns one of the highest first shot percentages on the slate (16.7%).
Teammate Derrick White is also interesting at longer odds (+740) given his increase in offensive responsibilities this season.
Kawhi Leonard First Points (+790) – James Harden is questionable to play, and his absence would increase Kawhi’s probability of scoring the first points.
Either way, we like the number here, as Leonard has been in the midst of one of his best scoring campaigns in years, having averaged 28.1 points and 20.8 field goal attempts per 36 in 15 appearances (Basketball Reference).
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Sunday, December 14th
It should be a fun Saturday in the NBA, as there are a lot of games and interesting DFS/betting opportunities on the schedule.
Injury update:
Highest opening tipoff win percentages so far this season (via BettingPros):
- Lakers (70.8%)
- Suns (68.0%)
- Nets (66.7%)
- Cavaliers (65.4%)
- 76ers (54.2%)
Highest first shot percentages on this slate (minimum of 15 starts):
- Grayson Allen (35.3.%)
- Andrew Nembhard (29.4%)
- Luka Doncic (27.8%)
- Dillon Brooks (22.2%)
- Herbert Jones (22.2%)
- Kon Knueppel (20.8%)
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Michael Porter Jr. First Points (+390) – Will continue to ride the MPJ train. The Nets’ starting five is horrendous and they need his shot creation desperately. It doesn’t hurt that Brooklyn won’t have to contend with Giannis, who’s been ruled out for the Bucks.
Deni Avdija First Points (+630) – We like the value on Portland’s best offensive player. The leash has been let off Avdija, who’s taken a huge jump in 2025/26. He’s averaging career-highs in minutes, points and field goal attempts ahead of Sunday night’s date with Steph Curry and the Warriors.
Good luck!
NOTE: Full analysis will return on Monday, December 15th.
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Saturday, December 13th
Well, the picks were pretty on point yesterday. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
Michael Porter Jr. First Points (+475) – W
Paul George First Points (+640) – W
Nickeil Alexander-Walker First Points (+740) – W
Ace Bailey First Points (+890) – L
Bailey got the first shot attempt but couldn’t convert, preventing us from hitting an insane first points sweep. Oh well, not a shabby night!
Let’s see what is standing out for Saturday night in the NBA. It’s the NBA Cup semis, with the Magic taking on the Knicks and the Thunder battling the Spurs in Vegas.
Injury update:
Opening tipoff win percentages so far this season (via BettingPros):
- Magic (76.0%)
- Spurs (70.8%)
- Thunder (68.0%)
- Knicks (45.8%)
Highest first shot percentages on this slate (minimum of 20 starts):
- Wendell Carter Jr. (25.0%)
- Jalen Brunson (22.7%)
- Jalen Suggs (20.0%)
- Devin Vassell (16.7%)
- Chet Holmgren (14.3%)
Notably, Victor Wembanyama is scheduled to return from injury. That’s a big boost for San Antonio’s chances of winning the tipoff, and Wemby himself has posted a 16.7% first shot percentage in 12 starts this season.
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Remember that both games are at a neutral site in Vegas!
Paolo Banchero First Points (+565) – Banchero has now had a few games to regain conditioning and confidence after a long injury layoff. His minutes since returning are trending nicely (20 -> 24 -> 32), and he’s coming off a productive 18-7-4 showing in a win over the Heat his last time out.
Orlando has been strong on opening tips early this season, and Banchero will continue to have an alpha role offensively alongside Desmond Bane with Franz Wagner sidelined.
Check back for potential late-adds, along with final plays and analysis.
Good luck!
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Friday, December 12th
After a quiet few days in the association, we finally get a bigger NBA slate to tackle on Friday night.
Here are the matchups:
Pistons (19-5) vs. Hawks (14-11)
76ers (13-10) vs. Pacers (6-18)
Wizards (3-19) vs. Cavaliers (14-11)
Hornets (7-17) vs. Bulls (9-14)
Grizzlies (11-13) vs. Jazz (8-15)
Mavericks (9-16) vs. Nets (6-17)
Warriors (13-12) vs. Timberwolves (15-9)
Injury update:
Highest opening tipoff win percentages so far this season (via BettingPros):
- Jazz (73.9%)
- Nets (65.2%)
- Cavaliers (64.0%)
- Grizzlies (62.5%)
- 76ers (56.5%)
- Hornets (50.0%)
- Wizards (50.0%)
Highest first shot percentages on this slate (minimum of 20 starts):
- Kon Knueppel (21.7%)
- DeAndre Hunter (19.0%)
- Lauri Markkanen (18.2%)
- Nicolas Claxton (17.4%)
- Jaylen Wells (16.7%)
- Julius Randle (16.7%)
- Donte DiVincenzo (16.7%)
In smaller sample sizes, Brandon Miller (8 starts, 50% first shot), Cedric Coward (11 starts, 45.5% first shot) and Paul George (8 starts, 25.0% first shot) have been heavily involved to start games, too.
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Michael Porter Jr. First Basket Scorer (+475) – The projected starting lineup for the Nets: Demin-Mann-Porter Jr.-Clowney-Claxton. Yikes. Porter Jr. has been chucking it, but for good reason, as he’s one of the only players who can consistently create offense on this abysmal team. He’s averaging a career-high 28.3 points and 20.5 field goal attempts per 36 minutes through 19 games (Basketball Reference).
Paul George First Basket Scorer (+640) – Maxey remains questionable for tonight’s favorable home matchup against the Pacers, and PG13 has had some nice scoring outputs early in games since returning to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker First Basket Scorer (+740) – Lost in Jalen Johnson’s elite season has been NAW’s significant contributions. He’s done an amazing job filling the scoring void left by Trae Young’s injury — heading into tonight, he’s averaged 22.7 points (career-high number) and 16.7 field goal attempts per 36 minutes in 2025/26.
Ace Bailey First Basket Scorer (+890) – Want a wild one? Lauri Markkanen has been the top dog offensively for the Jazz and will be a popular NBA first points pick, but Bailey is intriguing as a longer-shot. If there’s one thing we’ve learned, he’s not afraid (whatsoever) to shoot. The ultra-confident rookie is averaging 13.9 field goal attempts per 36.
Check back later for finalized picks and analysis.
Good luck!
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Where To Place NBA First Basket Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NBA First Basket needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price for NBA First Basket Bets.
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Top Sportsbooks For NBA First Basket Props
- FanDuel Sportsbook
- Caesars Sportsbook
- BetMGM
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
Best DFS Pick’Em Sites For NBA
- Underdog
- Wanna Parlay
- Sleeper
- Betr Picks
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Be sure to check out the Props.com overview of the Best Online Sports Betting Bonuses in the U.S.
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