NBA First Basket Predictions - Top First Basket Scorer Prop Bets

Looking for the best NBA first basket predictions and top first points plays today? You’re in luck! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NBA first basket picks and bets for every day of the basketball season.

We mean it, because we deliver our best bets for every day there’s a game on the calendar. No load management here!

Below are our best NBA first basket predictions today. Be sure to check our NBA player props for more top selections for the current NBA slate.

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Monday, March 16th

Let’s dive into Monday’s NBA schedule from a DFS and betting perspective.

Most important injury situations of the day:

OUT

Anthony Black
Jonathan Isaac
Franz Wagner
Moses Moody
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Al Horford
Anthony Davis
Keyonte George
D’Angelo Russell
Alex Sarr
Dillon Brooks
Mark Williams
Nikola Vucevic
Shaedon Sharpe
Terance Mann
Michael Porter Jr.
Ja Morant
Jaden Ivey
Anfernee Simons
Fred VanVleet
Dylan Harper

QUESTIONABLE

Jonathan Kuminga
De’Anthony Melton
Kristaps Porzingis
Daniel Gafford
Klay Thompson
Dejounte Murray
Walter Clayton Jr.
Collin Sexton
Alperen Sengun

DOUBTFUL

Kawhi Leonard
GG Jackson II
Ty Jerome
Isaac Okoro

(Last Updated: 11:15 AM ET)

Highest opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):

Spurs (76.1%)
Suns (70.1%)
Magic (69.7%)
Lakers (64.2%)
Nets (59.7%)

Highest first shot percentages, filtered for today’s projected starters (min 20 starts):

Luka Doncic (54 Starts, 27.8% First Shot)
Victor Wembanyama (42 Starts, 21.4% First Shot)
Wendell Carter Jr. (63 Starts, 20.6% First Shot)
Austin Reaves (35 Starts, 20.0% First Shot)
Jrue Holiday (35 Starts, 20.0% First Shot)
Jerami Grant (31 Starts, 19.4% First Shot)
Devin Vassell (52 Starts, 17.3% First Shot)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (55 Starts, 16.4% First Shot)
De’Aaron Fox (58 Starts, 15.5% First Shot)

More notable data points:

Jalen Green (14 Starts, 28.6% First Shot)
CJ McCollum (11 Starts, 18.2% First Shot)
Darius Garland (4 Starts, 25.0% First Shot)

This article will be updated throughout the day. Check back later!

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NBA First Points Picks & Longshots

Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds

Quick notes: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks.

That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value. The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.

Here are our top targets for today:

Alperen Sengun First Points (+600)
Trey Murphy III First Points (+650)

Check back for finalized picks and analysis. Good luck!

IMPORTANT: Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach!

Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season. As always, everything is 100% free:

Best Player Props Today
NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
NBA DFS & Prop Betting Strategy
Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
Daily Promo Roundup

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Where To Place NBA First Basket Bets

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NBA First Basket needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price for NBA First Basket Bets.

On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your bonus bets: