Looking for the best NBA first basket predictions and top first points plays today? You’re in luck! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NBA first basket picks and bets for every day of the basketball season.
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We mean it, because we deliver our best bets for every day there’s a game on the calendar. No load management here!
Below are our best NBA first basket predictions today. Be sure to check our NBA player props for more top selections for the current NBA slate.
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Best NBA First Basket Predictions Today
Every day during the NBA regular season and playoffs, we run through our favorite first basket bets and predictions of the night.
Wednesday, December 31st
Hope everyone has a great New Year’s Eve!
We have some early games on the schedule today, followed by a smaller evening slate. Let’s dive in!
Most important injury situations of the day:
Nikola Jokic (OUT)
Josh Giddey (OUT)
Coby White (OUT)
Trae Young (Q)
Desmond Bane (Q)
Jalen Suggs (Q)
Miles Bridges (D)
(Last Updated: 11 AM ET)
Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):
- Magic (72.7%)
- Spurs (71.9%)
- Suns (68.8%)
- Thunder (63.6%)
- Cavaliers (61.8%)
Highest first shot percentages so far this season, filtered for projected starters:
- Brandon Miller (16 starts, 50.0% first shot)
- Andrew Nembhard (25 starts, 36.0% first shot)
- Khris Middleton (20 starts, 25.0% first shot)
- Dillon Brooks (24 starts, 20.8% first shot)
- Jalen Brunson (30 starts, 20.0% first shot)
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Quick notes: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks. That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.
The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.
Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach with these picks!
Here are our top targets for today:
EARLY
Kon Knueppel is slated to return from injury, though the Hornets are likely to be without Miles Bridges, who was just downgraded to doubtful.
Brandon Miller (50.0% first shot) has been aggressive early for Charlotte, and Knueppel and LaMelo Ball are both confident scorers, too. Stephen Curry is the chalky yet most appealing first points play for Golden State.
Other key injury situations to watch: Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs are questionable for the Magic in a nice-looking spot against the Pacers. There could be some interesting value open up there, and Paolo Banchero would have a huge role if both end up sitting.
On the Indiana side, Aaron Nembhard has had a high first shot percentage, but don’t forget about Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin, who have been the team’s most reliable offensive pieces throughout the injury-riddled season.
Make sure to track Trae Young’s status, as he’s currently questionable for the Hawks at home against the Timberwolves. Jalen Johnson, in the midst of his most dominant season yet, is not on the injury report in what should be a fantasy-friendly game. Minnesota is favored by 5.5 and the total is sky-high at 243.5.
We then have the Cavs at home to the Suns, with Grayson Allen (doubtful) being the main piece of news. These squads have had two of the highest opening tipoff win percentages so far this season, and it’s actually Dillon Brooks who has led the way in first shot percentage in this game. We still prefer Donovan Mitchell first points at around +525.
LATE
A quick rundown of our favorite first points plays for the evening games:
Jamal Murray First Points (+420) – Nuggets w/o Jokic, so usage will be next level
Matas Buzelis First Points (+540) – Josh Giddey & Coby White both out for Bulls
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Tuesday, December 30th
It’s a lighter NBA slate on Tuesday, as there are only four games on the schedule.
Most important injury situations of the day:
Joel Embiid (Q)
Austin Reaves (OUT)
Keyonte George (Q)
Ace Bailey (OUT)
(Last Updated: 3 PM ET)
Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):
- Jazz (67.7%)
- Lakers (66.7%)
- Grizzlies (62.5%)
- 76ers (60.0%)
Highest first shot percentages so far this season, filtered for projected starters:
- Cedric Coward (18 starts, 33.3% first shot)
- Paul George (14 starts, 28.6% first shot)
- Luka Doncic (23 starts, 26.1% first shot)
- John Collins (21 starts, 23.8% first shot)
- Jaylen Brown (29 starts, 20.7% first shot)
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Quick note: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks.
That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.
The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.
Here are our top targets for today:
Luka Doncic First Points (+400) – The clear choice on Tuesday’s small slate. Austin Reaves and his high first shot percentage are sidelined for the Lakers against the Pistons.
Keyonte George First Points (+575) – Assuming he’s a go, George is an interesting play at home against Boston. He’s having a career season in his third year, averaging 25.1 points on 17.5 field goal attempts per 36 minutes.
Russell Westbrook First Points (+910) – Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis remain out for shorthanded Sacramento team; RWB projected to start at point guard versus the Clippers.
Good luck!
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Monday, December 29th
It should be another great night in sports. We’ve got Monday Night Football and a sizable NBA slate to try and exploit.
Most important injury situations:
Jalen Johnson (OUT)
Trae Young (OUT)
Alperen Sengun (OUT)
Tyler Herro (OUT)
Josh Hart (OUT)
Anthony Davis (Q)
Stephen Curry (Q)
De’Aaron Fox (Q)
(Last Updated: 3 PM ET)
Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):
- Magic (71.9%)
- Spurs (71.0%)
- Suns (67.7%)
- Nets (65.5%)
- Thunder (62.5%)
- Knicks (54.8%)
- Heat (53.1%)
Highest first shot percentages so far this season, filtered for projected starters:
- Brandon Miller (15 starts, 46.7% first shot)
- Andrew Nembhard (24 starts, 37.5% first shot)
- Norman Powell (27 starts, 25.9% first shot)
- Dillon Brooks (23 starts, 21.7% first shot)
- Bam Adebayo (24 starts, 20.8% first shot)
- Jalen Brunson (29 starts, 20.7% first shot)
- Michael Porter Jr. (25 starts, 20.0% first shot)
NBA First Points Picks & Longshots
Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds
Quick note: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks.
That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.
The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.
Here are our top targets for today:
CJ McCollum First Points (+640) – Wizards projected starting five with Kyshawn George and Khris Middleton both out: Johnson-McCollum-Coulibaly-Champagnie-Sarr. It’s not pretty.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker First Points (+670) – Trae Young and Jalen Johnson, Atlanta’s two biggest usage hogs, are sidelined. NAW has had a breakout season with the Hawks.
Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.
As always, everything is 100% free:
- Best Player Props Today
- NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
- Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
- Daily Promo Roundup
Where To Place NBA First Basket Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NBA First Basket needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price for NBA First Basket Bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NBA First Basket Props
- FanDuel Sportsbook
- Caesars Sportsbook
- BetMGM
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
Best DFS Pick’Em Sites For NBA
- Underdog
- Wanna Parlay
- Sleeper
- Betr Picks
- Boom Fantasy
- ParlayPlay
- FanDuel Picks
- DraftKings Pick6
- Chalkboard Fantasy
- Dabble
Be sure to check out the Props.com overview of the Best Online Sports Betting Bonuses in the U.S.
Best Online Sportsbook Bonuses
Take a look at the Props.com NBA Betting Guide and Guide To Prop Betting for more on how to bet on world’s premier professional basketball league.
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