NBA First Basket Predictions - Top First Basket Scorer Prop Bets

Looking for the best NBA first basket predictions and top first points plays today? You’re in luck! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NBA first basket picks and bets for every day of the basketball season.

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We mean it, because we deliver our best bets for every day there’s a game on the calendar. No load management here!

Below are our best NBA first basket predictions today. Be sure to check our NBA player props for more top selections for the current NBA slate.

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Best NBA First Basket Predictions Today

Every day during the NBA regular season and playoffs, we run through our favorite first basket bets and predictions of the night.

Thursday, January 8th

It’s a slower Thursday, with only four games to examine.

Most important injury situations of the day:

Anthony Edwards (Q)
Josh Giddey (OUT)
Ace Bailey (Q)
Jusuf Nurkic (Q)
Bennedict Mathurin (OUT)
Darius Garland (Q)
Andrew Nembhard (Q)
PJ Washington (D)

(Last Updated: 3:30 PM ET)

Highest implied team totals at time of writing (approximate):

Mavericks at Jazz (123.5)
Heat at Bulls (122.25)
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers (121.25)
Cavaliers at Timberwolves (118.75)

Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):

Jazz (63.9%)
Cavaliers (60.5%)
Timberwolves (54.1%)
Heat (51.4%)

Highest first shot percentages so far this season, filtered for projected starters:

Brandon Miller (20 starts, 48.6% first shot)
Andrew Nembhard (29 starts, 31.0% first shot)
Norman Powell (32 starts, 21.9% first shot)
Anthony Davis (19 starts, 21.1% first shot)
Keyonte George (35 starts, 20.0% first shot)
Kon Knueppel (35 starts, 20.0% first shot)

This article will be updated throughout the day. Check back later!

NBA First Points Picks & Longshots

Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds

Quick notes: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks. That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.

The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.

Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach!

Here are our top targets for today:

Donovan Mitchell First Points (+480)
Keyonte George First Points (+590)
Aaron Nesmith First Points (+700)

Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.

As always, everything is 100% free:

Best Player Props Today
NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
Daily Promo Roundup

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Wednesday, January 7th

It’s going to be another wild day in the NBA. There is a lot of news to stay on top of heading into tonight’s big slate.

Most important injury situations of the day:

Nikola Jokic (OUT)
Victor Wembanyama (Q)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Q)
Cade Cunningham (OUT)
Jalen Duren (OUT)
LeBron James (Q)
Trae Young (OUT)
Austin Reaves (OUT)
CJ McCollum (OUT)
Khris Middleton (OUT)
Alperen Sengun (Q)
Ja Morant (Q)
Coby White (OUT)
Josh Giddey (OUT)

(Last Updated: 6:15 PM ET)

Highest implied team totals at time of writing (approximate):

Thunder vs. Jazz (131)
Raptors vs. Pelicans (128.25)
76ers vs. Wizards (124.5)
Spurs vs. Lakers (122.5)
Pistons vs. Bulls (121.5)

Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):

Magic (73.0%)
Suns (69.4%)
Spurs (69.4%)
Lakers (67.6%)
Nets (63.6%)

NOTE: San Antonio’s tipoff win percentage is mostly thanks to Victor Wembanyama. He is currently questionable to play tonight. He has also been coming off the bench here and there as he regains full strength, and this is a back-to-back spot for the Spurs.

Keep an eye on LeBron, as he said himself that his status for back-to-backs the rest of the season would be “TBD”. Take that for what you will. Luka Doncic’s role would be even more substantial if LBJ joins Austin Reaves on the sidelines.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham are now questionable, so track those statuses as we get closer to tipoff.

Highest first shot percentages so far this season, filtered for projected starters:

Brandon Miller (20 starts, 40.0% first shot)
Luka Doncic (27 starts, 22.2% first shot)
Michael Porter Jr. (27 starts, 22.2% first shot)
Ja Morant (18 starts, 22.2% first shot)
Paul George (18 starts, 22.2% first shot)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (28 starts, 21.4% first shot)
Jaylen Brown (33 starts, 21.2% first shot)
Kon Knueppel (34 starts, 20.6% first shot)

This article will be updated throughout the day. Check back later!

NBA First Points Picks & Longshots

Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds

The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.

Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach!

Here are our top targets for today:

Michael Porter Jr. First Points
Dillon Brooks First Points

Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season.

As always, everything is 100% free:

Best Player Props Today
NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
Daily Promo Roundup

Draftkings Sportsbook

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Where To Place NBA First Basket Bets

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NBA First Basket needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price for NBA First Basket Bets.

On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets: