NBA First Basket Predictions - Top First Basket Scorer Prop Bets

Looking for the best NBA first basket predictions and top first points plays today? You’re in luck! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NBA first basket picks and bets for every day of the basketball season.

We mean it, because we deliver our best bets for every day there’s a game on the calendar. No load management here!

Below are our best NBA first basket predictions today. Be sure to check our NBA player props for more top selections for the current NBA slate.

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Wednesday, January 28th

We were able to hit with Ace Bailey first points yesterday. Let’s try to pick out another winner on Wednesday!

Most important injury situations of the day:

Anthony Davis (OUT)
Kyrie Irving (OUT)
Cooper Flagg (Q)
Jusuf Nurkic (Q)
Tyler Herro (OUT)
Davion Mitchell (D)
Darius Garland (OUT)
Evan Mobley (OUT)
Franz Wagner (OUT)
Austin Reaves (OUT)
Kristaps Porzingis (OUT)
Ja Morant (OUT)
Josh Hart (Q)

(Last Updated: 4:15 PM ET)

Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):

Lakers (73.3%)
Magic (73.3%)
Spurs (69.6%)
Cavaliers (62.5%)
Jazz (61.7%)

Highest first shot percentages, filtered for projected starters (min 15 starts):

Brandon Miller (30 starts, 36.7% first shot)
Andrew Nembhard (37 starts, 29.7% first shot)
Luka Doncic (37 starts, 27.0% first shot)
Cedric Coward (28 starts, 25.0% first shot)
Bam Adebayo (39 starts, 23.1% first shot)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (38 starts, 21.1% first shot)
Wendell Carter Jr. (43 starts, 20.9% first shot)
Jaylen Brown (43 starts, 20.9% first shot)
Julius Randle (47 starts, 19.1% first shot)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (42 starts, 19.0% first shot)
Jalen Brunson (42 starts, 19.0% first shot)

This article will be updated throughout the day. Check back later!

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NBA First Points Picks & Longshots

Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds

Quick notes: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks. That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.

The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.

Here are our top targets for today:

Victor Wembanyama First Points (+425)
Naji Marshall First Points (+880)

Check back for finalized picks and analysis. Good luck!

Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach!

Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season. As always, everything is 100% free:

Best Player Props Today
NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
Daily Promo Roundup

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Tuesday, January 27th

It’s another busy day in the association, and we’ve got a lot of player news to keep an eye on, as usual.

COAST 2 COAST TUESDAY HEADLINES 7-GAME SLATE ‼️

▪️ Maxey, 76ers host the Bucks
▪️ LAC (15-3 in L18) head to UTA
▪️ DET (East #1) faces DEN (West #3)
▪️ Brunson, SGA both in action at home

📺 NBC, Peacock, & NBA League Pass
📲 https://t.co/gOBot1QVxh pic.twitter.com/afukFWtmsV
— NBA (@NBA) January 27, 2026

Most important injury situations of the day:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (OUT)
Nikola Jokic (OUT)
Devin Booker (OUT)
Keyonte George (OUT)
Trae Young (OUT)
Joel Embiid (Q)
Deni Avdija (Q)
Kawhi Leonard (Q)
Jalen Williams (OUT)
Zach LaVine (OUT)
Collin Gillespie (Q)
Jusuf Nurkic (OUT)
Aaron Gordon (OUT)
Khris Middleton (Q)
Jalen Green (OUT)

(Last Updated: 5:00 PM ET)

Best opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):

Suns (71.7%)
Nets (65.9%)
Jazz (60.9%)
Knicks (55.6%)
Thunder (55.3%)

Highest first shot percentages, filtered for projected starters (min 15 starts):

Grayson Allen (20 starts, 30.0% first shot)
Michael Porter Jr. (36 starts, 25.0% first shot)
Royce O’Neale (39 starts, 20.5% first shot)
Jalen Brunson (41 starts, 19.5% first shot)
Dillon Brooks (38 starts, 18.4% first shot)
John Collins (33 starts, 18.2% first shot)
Ace Bailey (28 starts, 17.9% first shot)

This article will be updated throughout the day. Check back later!

NBA First Points Picks & Longshots

Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds

The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.

Here are our top targets for today:

Ace Bailey First Points (+660) — Keyonte George has already been announced out for tonight’s home game against the Clippers, while Lauri Markkanen and Jusuf Nurkic are question marks. Despite being a rookie, Bailey has a high first-shot percentage so far, and in general, he is a talented scorer unafraid of creating offense.

Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach!

Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season. As always, everything is 100% free:

Best Player Props Today
NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
Daily Promo Roundup

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Where To Place NBA First Basket Bets

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NBA First Basket needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price for NBA First Basket Bets.

On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your bonus bets: