There’s a combination of aspects that you need to succeed in to make money on player props. Finding winners will always be important, but some aspects have nothing to do with the MLB, and these are necessary to be a long-term winner.
In this article, I’ll break down those aspects along with what to look for to successfully find what MLB players to pick.
MLB DFS Pick’Em Tips: Max Value Strategies
Make sure to implement all our best tips and winning strategies in your picks this season.
Bankroll Management
Bankroll management is generally the most difficult aspect for users, specifically new users, to understand and master. It’s difficult to accept that you will lose. That’s part of the game, and the sooner that’s accepted, the easier this all becomes.
The reason bankroll management is so key is because of the variance in sports. There’s already a ridiculous amount of variance from the actual sport being played. You need to be able to limit any added variance to that, and that’s what smart bankroll management does.
First, you need to set and understand your units. Most people (myself included) run under the assumption that 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll. If you have a $100 bankroll, 1 unit = $1. This is the most important aspect of bankroll management.
Now that you understand your units, you need to stay consistent with how you play. There are several ways you can make plays, but the simplest is putting 1 unit on every play. As you win and increase your bankroll, your unit size will increase as well.
If you’re a more advanced player, you can scale your units based on how you like your plays. If you do this, you should use a 1-5 scale (or anywhere between). Regardless, you should continue to make your plays with consistency in terms of using a specific unit size for how much you like specific plays.
Bankroll management is the biggest key for any player to profit over the long-term.
Leverage Sites
As small as it may sound, finding any edges is a major factor for anyone playing player props. There are two main ways to leverage sites, and I’ll break them down below.
First, you can find discrepancies between sites on the actual player prop. This is less true for MLB because the numbers are so small compared to other sports, but it isn’t out of the question. For example, you could find Spencer Strider at 8.5 strikeouts on Sports Million compared to 9.5 on Sleeper. Although these discrepancies aren’t as frequent in MLB, the difference between the numbers is extremely valuable because of how small they are.
The second factor is the payout. Different sites have different payouts – including static or variable. Regardless of how they run their payouts, you need to compare them all to find the best payout.
Generally, players like to keep all of their money on one site, but that doesn’t allow you to find the best payouts. When you consider a payout being 0.2x higher, it doesn’t make a huge difference. If you extrapolate that multiple over 100 bets, you’re sitting at 20 units, which is a huge deal.
Pitch Counts & Innings Limits
As is the case with any sport, strikeouts and innings are all determined by opportunity. If a pitcher has a limited pitch count or innings limit, they aren’t going to see a full amount of opportunities in their starts.
The most common spots to look for pitch counts or innings limits come in two very different areas.
First, most pitchers start the season under a pitch count. Teams tend to ramp up their starters by each start, depending on how much they threw in Spring Training. It’s difficult to truly project pitch counts, but they will be announced on occasion.
Second, innings limits generally come late in the season. These generally come from bad teams or on young pitchers. That isn’t always the case, though. Teams will often limit specific pitchers to only five innings in a start, regardless of how well they’re throwing.
There are other spots where you can look for these, though. The third most common would be a pitcher returning from injury. They generally spend a bit of time in the minor leagues on a rehab assignment, but they’ll also see a limited pitch count in their first few games back in the majors.
Keep an eye on these situations, as it’s extremely important to be able to project how deep a pitcher will throw in a game.
Matchups & Splits
Matchups and splits are easily the most important aspect of projecting pitcher player props.
Some pitchers perform drastically better or worse against the handedness of batters. In 2024, Garrett Crochet posted a 41.6% strikeout rate against left-handed batters compared to a 33.8% rate against righties. His strikeout rate also sat 5.4% higher at home. Ultimately, he owned a 45.6% strikeout rate at home against lefties compared to a 31.5% rate on the road against righties.
Generally, hitters don’t see as massive of differences against handedness, but some do. Brandon Marsh’s strikeout rate jumped 5.4% against left-handed pitching compared to righties last season. It’s another aspect to consider.
Overall, it’s most important to look at the teams overall in terms of strikeout rate and against a specific handedness. The Colorado Rockies and Seattle Mariners led the MLB with a 26.8% strikeout rate in 2024. The San Diego Padres ranked last at only 17.6%. It’s a drastic difference.
The Red Sox owned a league-high 27.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in 2024. That number dropped 3.6% against right-handed pitching. Granted, these numbers aren’t massive, but they play a major factor when looking at strikeout props.
Hot Streaks
Normally, I don’t put too much emphasis on hot streaks in sports. That isn’t the case when choosing hitter player props. MLB players, specifically hitters, are extremely streaky. Rarely are players consistent over an entire season. They generally do a ton of damage at once during their hot streak while struggling during cold streaks.
This doesn’t mean you should solely look into hot streaks. They still need to be in good matchups with other factors lining up well. But players who are playing well typically find more success than cold players.
It’s also important to note that baseline statistics don’t generally tell how hot a player is. Batting average isn’t as important as hard hit and barrel rates.
It’s an added bonus that MLB players have consistently stated that when they’re on a hot streak, it’s easier to see the ball, specifically referring to the spin when determining pitches. This is one of the only spots in sports where I will put fairly large stock in how someone is playing.
Weather & Ballparks
Baseball is the only major sport where its fields are all created differently. Football, basketball, and hockey all have the same dimensions of their playing area. That isn’t the case in baseball.
Certain fields are easier to hit at while others are better for pitchers. Some fields are good specifically for home runs compared to others that are better for non-home-run extra-base hits. Furthermore, some fields are easier for a specific handedness.
The weather and atmosphere are also crucial for baseball. Wind is a huge factor for hitters and pitchers, and Wrigley Field is the most drastic field for that. The way the wind is blowing can change the game total by multiple runs.
Colorado is another field that is designed for batters. The thin air allows the ball to travel farther, giving a massive edge to hitters. It isn’t necessarily the ballpark or the weather, but it’s the atmosphere, and this section is the best area to outline that.
Ultimately, you’re going to need to look into the ballparks and weather when considering any player props for baseball.
MORE CONTENT:
