In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf player picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
Winner Picks: Cognizant Classic
Each week, we take a look at our top outright winner plays along with the reasons why.
MORE PROPS: NFL | NBA | NHL | PGA | SOC | CS2
Winner Picks – Cognizant Classic
This week the PGA Tour stops at the Cognizant Classic, which … doesn’t sound classic at all, since this is only the second year with that name.
The Champions course at PGA National is, however, a Tour classic, and has hosted a lot of historic events and this tournament was traditionally the Honda Classic before the sponsorship change.
The course here plays basically length-neutral for a Tour course, according to Datagolf’s metrics. There is an ever-so-slight nod to shorter hitters being at LESS OF A DISADVANTAGE than normal, but pretty much worth ignoring that angle this week.
The course doesn’t demand accuracy off of the tee necessarily, but plays as a classic water-laden Florida design that can wreak havoc on approach. The ultimate “second shot course.”
The wind is forecasted to lay down here so expect there to be some scoring, and ultimately iron play will be king here.
With that in mind, we’ve got a trio of ball strikers to look at for our best bet picks this week.
The first is former champ Keith Mitchell. When he won here it made perfect sense and he’s actually playing a lot better right now than he was when he won here in 2019. His last four tournaments in a row have been nearly ideal, just lacking a really high finish against some tough fields.
Mithell went through a really low point in the “wraparound” portion of the schedule but that has him a little more buried than you’d expect at 50-1, a price where we are definitely Buying against some pretty mediocre competition.
The next guy on the radar is, at the risk of sounding like a broken record: Gary Woodland.
Gary was a big play at Torrey Pines and absolutely shit the bed. The upshot of golf betting is that second place is the same result as last place (a la Ricky Bobby) so who cares, right?
The thing is it’s natural for people to shy away after a performance like that, but that also creates opportunity to stick to your guns and capitalize on the situation still, provided there is no evidence (such as an injury, etc) to say otherwise.
Bad results happen in golf. Gary is playing as well as he ever has in his career, and I’m firing on him again without hesitation until some more info comes out or he strings together several shaky performances.
Last but not least is “amateur” Luke Clanton. Clanton is still technically an amateur but has played 11 PGA Tour events since the start of 2024 with five top-15s putting him on the brink of earning his card.
This is the new style, pioneered by the Bryson/Morikawa/Wolff/Hovland-
Clanton has the pedigree to take it to the next level immediately, and this is as good of an opportunity as any for him.
Best Bets:
Keith Mitchell +4000
Gary Woodland +6000
Luke Clanton +5000
Golf Props Today: Cognizant Classic
For each tournament, we will go through Round 2/3/4 plays on sites like Underdog.
Round 2 Picks
Coming soon! Check back later this week for more picks and analysis.
Round 3 Picks
Coming soon! Check back later this week for more picks and analysis.
Round 4 Picks
Coming soon! Check back later this week for more picks and analysis.
Golf Props Today: Mexico Open
For each tournament, we will go through Round 2/3/4 plays on sites like Underdog.
Round 4 Pick
Aldrich Potgieter remains in the Mexico Open lead at -20, though he has Brian Campbell (-19) and Stephan Jaeger (-17) among others chasing him down.
Here’s who we are siding with for our Round 4 pick:
Akshay Bhatia was in a great position to contend heading into Round 3 but couldn’t keep his foot on the gas. He ended up shooting -1 and is now at -11 for the tournament.
Here in Round 4, we’re predicting a better day at the office for Bhatia, who is one of the most talented golfers in this weaker-field event.
The underlying ballstriking metrics are looking fine through the first three days, and this course has shown it can be torn up by a lot of players who don’t have nearly as much pedigree.
Top Play: Akshay Bhatia LOWER Than 68 Strokes (Underdog)
Through three rounds, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green at the Mexico Open (via Data Golf):
Brian Campbell (+3.63)
Alejandro Tosti (+3.16)
Alex Smalley (+2.95)
Patrick Rodgers (+2.76)
Aaron Rai (+2.69)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Henrik Norlander (+2.45)
David Lipsky (+2.17)
Aaron Rai (+2.09)
Patrick Rodgers (+1.99)
Brian Campbell (+1.94)
Round 3 Pick
Aldrich Potgieter has raced out to a four-shot lead after a -10 score in Round 2. He sits at -16 for the tournament, with Stephan Jaeger and Brian Campbell in the hunt.
For our Round 3 selection, we’re looking at Jake Knapp. Can he recover after a rough Friday?
Knapp ended up barely making the cut after a 72 that included a double bogey on a par five.
Despite his struggles, the young talent is one of the standouts in this field overall given his ballstriking ability tee-to-green. We believe he’ll shoot 68 or better on Saturday as he tries to close out the event with a positive weekend showing.
Top Play: Jake Knapp LOWER Than 68.5 Strokes
Through two rounds, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green at the Mexico Open (via Data Golf):
Aaron Rai (+3.65)
Brian Campbell (+3.38)
Alex Smalley (+3.05)
Aldrich Potgieter (+3.04)
Jeremy Paul (+2.86)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Aaron Rai (+2.98)
Henrik Norlander (+2.48)
Aldrich Potgieter (+2.25)
Sami Valimaki (+2.21)
David Lipsky (+1.96)
Round 2 Pick
The Mexico Open is off and running, and it’s Harry Hall, Jeremy Paul and Kris Ventura who lead the pack at -7.
With our Round 2 play, we are looking at Kurt Kitayama to go low after an up-and-down Thursday.
Kitayama shot -1 in Round 1, losing almost a stroke to the field on the greens and on approach (Data Golf).
Coming into this weaker-field tournament, Kitayama was one of the favorites to win, especially considering he is a great fit for this gettable course in general given his main strengths.
The Mexico Open has typically been dominated by long hitters in the past, and Kitayama is currently 11th in the PGA in average driving distance (318.2). If he can find some consistency with his irons and on the greens, we like the chances of a better Friday showing.
All in all, we expect a better Round 2 as he looks to get back into the mix at the top of the leaderboard. We’re predicting a 67 or lower out of Kitayama in this spot.
Top Play: Kurt Kitayama LOWER Than 68 Strokes
Good luck!
