Golf Props Today – Outright Winner & Round 2/3/4 Picks

In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props for Rounds 2-4.

Let’s see if we can nail some winners and make some money along the way.

Outright Winner Preview: Farmers Insurance Open

This week the PGA Tour stops in sunny San Diego for an absolute classic – the Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines.

The rumor is that the PGA Tour has also decided to move next month’s Genesis Invitational to Torrey Pines as well, so get used to this scenery if you’re a PGA Tour fan.

We always play both the North and South course for the Farmers, and it remains to be seen but seems likely they may just play the more famous South Course if they return next month as rumored.

The South Course is a little harder, but all-in-all Torrey Pines is – and I know this may be sacrilege to some – on paper one of the more boring, repetitive, and one-dimensional courses that we see on Tour.

It has a wonderful historical value and absolutely breathtaking setting, but on the ground it is basically the same golf hole over and over again and while it plays difficult, they basically make all the par 4’s quite long and always with fairway bunkers right in the landing zone, so it becomes a test of who can drive the ball the best. Over and over and over and over again.

The interesting thing is that there is some redemption in the fact that because it is so long and can play quite difficult especially if the wind kicks up, that it can play almost like US Open conditions at times and it is possible to snake this tournament as a dinky hitter and unbelievable putter, as Brandt Snedeker won here twice, Aaron Baddeley played really here during his prime, and Matthew Pavon (who in fairness is pretty average off the tee) won here last year.

So there is a recipe there, and a reminder that while Torrey is predominantly a driving test, these are just tendencies and at this level if somebody has a career-week, they can win even if the course doesn’t match their style.

The other thing to note is that, unfortunately these course tendencies are largely no secret and Vegas analysts and the market in general are going to have these tendencies mostly priced in to the lines at open or very shortly thereafter.

So overall we are still as always leaning first and foremost on overall pricing inefficiencies, second of all on guys who are hitting it well lately statistically but haven’t gotten public attention on their results yet, and lastly on good and exceptionally long drivers of the golf ball for this particular week.

There are several very solid players who check all the boxes this week and I have no problem with, but their numbers just aren’t that great compared to their projections.

Taylor Pendrith, Max Greyserman, Keegan Bradley, Shane Lowry, and Luke Clanton all fall into this category. I really like these guys this week but it’s hard to get an edge with their numbers, they are priced about right.

Instead this week I am dropping down to a couple of guys who I feel like are just slightly less likely to win than the above, but are available at 2-4x the payout.

First is Gary Woodland, who is a recurring theme in this space as he continues to play better and better and better, now over a full year under his belt after a return from offseason brain surgery, he is absolutely crushing the ball lately and has top 16’s in 3 of his last 5 – at some courses that absolutely did not suit his game at all. That’s not the case at all this week and there’s value in him at +9000 on FanDuel for sure.

UPDATE: Woodland has withdrawn.

The next is PGA Tour rookie Niklas Norgaard. Not to be confused with his countryman and fellow bomber Nicolai Hojgaard.

Norgaard is 31 years old and has scantily ever played in any PGA Tour events as a career European Tour player, but he really rounded into form after a win at the British Masters last year and finished fourth last week in a star-studded field in Dubai.

He gets the job done by averaging well over 320 off the tee and has been on an absolutely torrid run on the greens, gaining strokes on the field in 10 of his last 11 European starts including 9 in a row, with a lot of those weeks gaining 4-8 strokes per tournament on the greens.

That is a recipe for really high finishes anywhere in the world, and at +8000 at MGM he is a great value as he was quickly bet down into the 6000s on most sites.

The final note I will make is about the two absolute longest hitters in the field. I’m going to play these guys with the disclaimer that you could make plays like these every single week literally for several years straight and lose hundreds and hundreds of times in a row and still potentially be profitable. So they are almost comical propositions but they definitely have better odds than a lottery ticket, and we have some skill-basis, albeit thin, that we can lean on here.

Aldrich Potgieter hits it way farther than even McIlroy, Champ, or anyone you can name. He just came up through KFT and the first two tournaments he played weren’t a great chance to flex his distance. At +40000 on MGM I’ll pay to see the flop on this event.

The other is Charles Reiter, a guy who has only made a few professional cuts in his life (in 2023 on the Canadian Tour) but hits it way farther than even Potgieter and has been making noise by shooting some really low scores in qualifying tournaments, including qualifying for last year’s US Open, making the final stage of Q-school this year, and taking the medalist spot at the Monday qualifier this week.

He comes in at a truly preposterous 1000/1 on FanDuel or 1500/1 on Caesars. Most of the guys who have numbers like these, they are older guys whose careers are already over. That’s not the case at all with Reiter. By far the most likely result is for Reiter to miss the cut this week, and maybe by a mile, but this is kind of a preview of the future of the game – guys who murder the ball and just go all out and try to snipe a tournament and change their careers. He’s proven he can go as low as anybody in any conditions in any given round, he just has zero consistency. But he’s subtly trending and at truly ridiculous odds, you really don’t have to risk nearly any money at all to get a ticket to this show.

Niklas Norgaard +8000

Aldrich Potgieter +40000

Charles Reiter +150000

Golf Props Today: Farmers Insurance Open

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For each tournament, we will go through our favorite Round 2/3/4 plays on DFS pick’em sites like Underdog and PrizePicks.

Round 4 Picks (1/25/25)

It’s the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open, and it’s Harris English who is leading the pack at nine under par.

Who’s standing out on the top DFS pick’em sites?

Ludvig Aberg LOWER Than 72

For Sunday, we are putting our faith in Ludvig Aberg despite back-to-back shaky rounds.

Aberg was leading after the opening round and has since faltered. That being said, we are backing the overall talent over everything else here and believe his Round 4 strokes projection on Underdog is too high (72).

Sungjae Im LOWER Than 71.5

Another top talent, Sungjae Im is also in the mix, five strokes back of the lead.

He wasn’t able to get a ton going in Round 3, shooting even par, but we like what we saw on approach. He gained almost two strokes on the field in that category.

If Im can generate similar opportunities and get more putts to drop on Sunday, we like his chances of shooting 71 or better on the South Course.

Round 3 Picks (1/24/25)

Make sure to check weather and wind before Round 3 starts. The conditions ended up being tougher than expected in Round 2, with extremely high winds popping up and causing havoc, leading to high scores across the board.

Here are our top plays for Friday:

Keegan Bradley < 71 Strokes (Underdog)

Keegan Bradley sits at even par heading into Round 3 after a rough +3 round on the South Course yesterday.

We expect a bounce-back here from a golfer who knows this course well. It’s a test that requires a total all-around game and mental fortitude, and we know Keegs has both in spades.

Hideki Matsuyama < 70.5 Strokes (PrizePicks)

We are siding with another veteran golfer in Hideki Matsuyama, even though he struggled in Round 2.

Even at -1 for the tournament, Matsuyama is in contention and only five strokes back of the lead, and we expect him to be more dialed in from tee to green in what we are hoping are softer conditions.

Round 2 Picks (1/23/25)

The first round of the Farmers Insurance Open has come and gone, and Ludvig Aberg has raced out to an early lead at -9.

Our top PGA play for Round 2 is Hideki Matsuyama, who we expect to go low.

Matsuyama shot a 68 on the South Course on Wednesday and now gets a crack at the North Course, which typically plays easier for golfers.

Even on the tougher setup, the underlying ballstriking and putting numbers looked strong for the Japanese star, who has won 11 times on the PGA Tour in his career.

As one of the most talented golfers in the field, and fresh off a recent victory in Hawaii, we expect a low round from the in-form Matsuyama to jump into contention once more.

Top Play: Hideki Matsuyama LOWER Than 68.5 Strokes

Another pick that stands out is Sungjae Im after he shot a highly respectable -3 on the South Course yesterday.

Im’s Underdog golf projection is at 69 strokes for Round 2 on the North Course, so we have interest. He’s a top talent who has a great all-around game, and we’re predicting a 68 or better on Thursday.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our PGA first round leader predictions for this week’s event before locking in all of your golf picks!