In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props and picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
Winner Picks – Valero Texas Open
This week’s PGA Tour stop is the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.
This is more than a classic PGA Tour stop – it is the sixth oldest professional golf tournament in the world, and the longest-running tournament site on the PGA Tour.
This alone can give us a little bit of what to expect from the venue, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. The landmark property is an old school layout. It’s fairly boring and while it is quite long for a non-major on paper, the datagolf numbers say that distance isn’t the biggest factor here.
Shorter hitters fare better here than they normally do (they are at LESS of a disadvantage, not that they are in better shape than long hitters by any means) and it really shapes up as a putting contest.
Jacob Bridgeman is an overall value play at 50-1. He’s having a breakout season at age 25 with two top 5’s in ten tries this year. His adjusted Data Golf numbers have him firmly in the top-third of players on tour this season, and his overall value is bolstered here at TPC San Antonio by being a particularly strong putter during his career, who has found some form on approach this season.
UPDATE: Bridgeman has withdrawn.
The next play is our old friend Daniel Berger at 35-1. It’s time to go back to the well with him, after he peaked with a T2 in Phoenix, he hasn’t really let off, performing very consistently – exactly like he did pre-injury.
His form has been solid but not exciting enough to catch the public’s attention, and his number comes in pretty good against a weak field here and a course that is gettable for him.
Lastly, we are looking at last week’s runner-up in a playoff, Denny McCarthy. A lifelong dominant putter on tour, the last few seasons he has really rounded out his long game and added a few yards of distance, and has done basically everything but win.
Add to that he’s having the best season of his career on approach so far, and we’ll take him at 30-1 on MGM. But grab this one fast as he’s getting bet down as the memory of his play last year is still pretty fresh in the minds of bettors.
Best Bets:
Daniel Berger +3500
Denny McCarthy +3000
MORE CONTENT:
NBA | MLB | NHL | CBB | PGA | SOC | CS2
Round 2/3/4 Picks – Valero Texas Open
Coming soon!
Check back later.
Round 2/3/4 Picks – Houston Open
Each week we take a look at our favorite individual round golf picks for Rounds 2, 3 and 4 on sites like Underdog and Sleeper.
Round 4 Picks
Min Woo Lee has raced out to a four-shot lead heading into the final round of the Houston Open.
Will anyone be able to catch him? There’s one golfer in particular who will be trying his best to make life difficult on Lee come Sunday afternoon, and it just so happens to be the best player on the planet.
We are looking at Scottie Scheffler’s Round 4 projection. It’s at 66.5 strokes over on Underdog PGA, and while that’s not an easy score to beat, we’ve seen what kind of upside Scheffler has on this course already after he shot 62 in Round 2.
Scheffler is five strokes back of the lead, and we fully expect him to make a run at this trophy in Houston, Texas.
Top Play: Scottie Scheffler LOWER Than 66.5 Strokes
Through the first three rounds at the Houston Open, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Alejandro Tosti (+2.69)
Kevin Yu (+2.14)
Sami Valimaki (+2.06)
Keith Mitchell (+1.98)
Adam Hadwin (+1.89)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
John Pak (+2.08)
Sami Valimaki (+1.79)
Ryan Gerard (+1.77)
Kevin Yu (+1.77)
Mason Andersen (+1.72)
MORE CONTENT:
NBA | MLB | NHL | CBB | PGA | SOC | CS2
Round 3 Picks
Round 2 has been suspended and will resume on Saturday, so we have yet to get Round 3 projections and salaries.
This content will return for Round 4 on Sunday, March 30.
Round 2 Picks
A few golfers are still yet to finish their first rounds, but we more or less are ready for Round 2 at the Houston Open.
A group of four, including Keith Mitchell and Taylor Pendrith, sits at five-under for the tournament, one shot ahead of a huge pack at four-under.
Who do we like for Friday’s action?
Fresh off his win at The PLAYERS, Rory McIlroy had an unspectacular opening round in Houston, shooting even par while losing 1.62 strokes putting (Data Golf).
That said, the overall ballstriking looked solid, as he gained 1.97 strokes on the field tee to green. That’s an encouraging sign heading into Round 2.
Top Play: Rory McIlroy LOWER Than 68.5 Strokes
Through (almost all of) the first round at the Houston Open, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Eric Cole (+4.60)
Jackson Suber (+3.96)
Chan Kim (+3.69)
Alejandro Tosti (+3.38)
Nicolai Hojgaard (+3.25)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Eric Cole (+3.79)
Jake Knapp (+3.22)
Mason Andersen (+3.11)
J.J. Spaun (+3.03)
Charley Hoffman (+2.92)
