In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props and picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
Round 2/3/4 Picks – Houston Open
Each week we take a look at our favorite individual round golf picks for Rounds 2, 3 and 4 on sites like Underdog and Sleeper.
Round 4 Picks
Min Woo Lee has raced out to a four-shot lead heading into the final round of the Houston Open.
Will anyone be able to catch him? There’s one golfer in particular who will be trying his best to make life difficult on Lee come Sunday afternoon, and it just so happens to be the best player on the planet.
We are looking at Scottie Scheffler’s Round 4 projection. It’s at 66.5 strokes over on Underdog PGA, and while that’s not an easy score to beat, we’ve seen what kind of upside Scheffler has on this course already after he shot 62 in Round 2.
Scheffler is five strokes back of the lead, and we fully expect him to make a run at this trophy in Houston, Texas.
Top Play: Scottie Scheffler LOWER Than 66.5 Strokes
Through the first three rounds at the Houston Open, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Alejandro Tosti (+2.69)
Kevin Yu (+2.14)
Sami Valimaki (+2.06)
Keith Mitchell (+1.98)
Adam Hadwin (+1.89)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
John Pak (+2.08)
Sami Valimaki (+1.79)
Ryan Gerard (+1.77)
Kevin Yu (+1.77)
Mason Andersen (+1.72)
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Round 3 Picks
Round 2 has been suspended and will resume on Saturday, so we have yet to get Round 3 projections and salaries.
This content will return for Round 4 on Sunday, March 30.
Round 2 Picks
A few golfers are still yet to finish their first rounds, but we more or less are ready for Round 2 at the Houston Open.
A group of four, including Keith Mitchell and Taylor Pendrith, sits at five-under for the tournament, one shot ahead of a huge pack at four-under.
Who do we like for Friday’s action?
Fresh off his win at The PLAYERS, Rory McIlroy had an unspectacular opening round in Houston, shooting even par while losing 1.62 strokes putting (Data Golf).
That said, the overall ballstriking looked solid, as he gained 1.97 strokes on the field tee to green. That’s an encouraging sign heading into Round 2.
Top Play: Rory McIlroy LOWER Than 68.5 Strokes
Through (almost all of) the first round at the Houston Open, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Eric Cole (+4.60)
Jackson Suber (+3.96)
Chan Kim (+3.69)
Alejandro Tosti (+3.38)
Nicolai Hojgaard (+3.25)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Eric Cole (+3.79)
Jake Knapp (+3.22)
Mason Andersen (+3.11)
J.J. Spaun (+3.03)
Charley Hoffman (+2.92)
Winner Picks – Houston Open
The PGA Tour stops this week in Houston for its annual pre-Masters party, playing for the fourth time in the past five years at Memorial Park.
Memorial Park is memorable for being one of the longest courses on Tour, especially for a par 70. The course is a public course and maintains fairly welcoming fairways and greens. To counteract this, the PGA Tour tries to make these guys hit as many long shots as possible into these greens. Simple as that, not much else that can be done!
This results in two things, scouting-wise: first, obviously length and overall driving prowess plays well here. Secondly, when the approach shots get long, a lot of greens get missed, and you have a lot of long putts, so usually there’s a couple of guys who can keep themselves in the hunt with a red-hot short game.
For our purposes, however, we are going to focus on players with ball striking advantages as it’s a lot less random and more predictable than the short game angle.
The first player to highlight is Jake Knapp, who is coming off a pretty terrible performance at the Valspar last week. This is one of my favorite “situations” to play a guy: where we basically give him a free pass for a single bad week, but the public and the oddsmakers punish them significantly for it.
The Valspar is basically a terrible course for the long-hitting Knapp. It’s extremely narrow and takes driver out of a player’s hands quite often, and is hard to establish a rhythm with one of Knapp’s favorite weapons. If you simply give him a pass on the Valspar, the previous 7 or so tournaments are pretty much an elite run, equivalent to almost anyone in this field besides Rory and Scheffler, gaining almost 1.5 strokes per round on the field.
So if we throw out the Valspar and project him to continue his resurgent 2025 form, he’s a fantastic play at +8000.
The next player to focus on is a longtime favorite of mine, a guy who is like a “Rory lite” or “Asian Rory” to me … is Kevin Yu, one of the most premium ball strikers to come out on tour in recent years.
This guy is one of the best drivers of the golf ball and long iron players on tour. He’s an absolute machine. There’s just one problem: he can’t putt. Obviously, or he’s be a household name. Not only can he not putt he REALLY hurts himself on the greens sometimes.
However he’s started a trend in the past year where he actually does putt well every once in awhile. He really just needs to putt and chip at a break-even rate to be in contention, and he did just that last week at the Valspar, parlaying a dominant ball striking performance into a T12.
He’ll need to do even better than that on the greens to actually win, but he’s shown that he can randomly find that magic with a win and a +2.00 strokes gained putting performance about a dozen tournaments ago. If he can match up that kind of putting again in less than 80 tries from now, that makes his number at +8000 pretty compelling.
Best Bets:
Jake Knapp +8000
Kevin Yu +8000
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Round 2/3/4 Picks – The Valspar Championship
Each week we take a look at our favorite golf picks for Rounds 2, 3 and 4 on sites like Underdog and Sleeper.
Round 4 Picks
Viktor Hovland, Jacob Bridgeman and Nicho Echavarria are tied at -7 through three rounds at the Valspar Championship.
With our Round 4 DFS pick’em play on Underdog, we are targeting Shane Lowry to make a run at the trophy.
Lowry shot one-under yesterday, gaining 1.89 strokes tee to green and 1.36 strokes on approach, and he sits two back of the leaders.
He struggled more around the greens, losing 0.78 strokes putting and 0.78 strokes around the green (Data Golf). A strong short game is typically Lowry’s bread and butter.
We expect a steady showing from the Irishman in Round 4, and we wouldn’t mind a sprinkle on a victory either. Lowry is currently +900 to win outright before play resumes on Sunday.
Top Play: Shane Lowry LOWER Than 70 Strokes
Through the first three rounds at The Valspar, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Davis Riley (+2.79)
Shane Lowry (+2.61)
Bud Cauley (+2.55)
Andrew Novak (2.32)
Rasmus Petersen (+2.31)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Bud Cauley (+2.29)
Sami Valimaki (+1.89)
Jordan Spieth (+1.84)
Xander Schauffele (+1.61)
Ryan Gerard (+1.53)
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Round 3 Picks
Jacob Bridgeman holds a narrow one-shot lead after two rounds at the Valspar Championship. Byeong Hun An, Ryo Hisatsune and Viktor Hovland are in the group a shot back, while Xander Schauffele trails by two after a strong Round 2.
Who are we looking at for Saturday’s action in Florida?
Though he wasn’t quite as sharp yesterday, Sahith Theegala has been solid overall at the event, gaining +1.45 strokes tee to green and +1.32 strokes off the tee.
If he can iron out his approach play — he lost almost a stroke on approach in Round 2 — we think Theegala has a great shot at shooting lower than 70.
Top Play: Sahith Theegala LOWER Than 70 (Underdog)
Through the first two rounds at The Valspar, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Xander Schauffele (+3.73)
Byeong Hun An (+3.23)
Davis Riley (+3.03)
Shane Lowry (+2.96)
Andrew Novak (+2.87)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Xander Schauffele (+2.67)
Joe Highsmith (+2.35)
Davis Riley (+2.17)
Sami Valimaki (+2.13)
Will Zalatoris (+2.10)
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Round 2 Picks
After the first round at the Valspar Championship, we’ve got a group of four at four-under part after the first round which includes Sami Valimaki, Keith Mitchell, Stephan Jaeger and Ricky Castillo.
Conditions were not the easiest in Round 1 and the course played pretty difficultly, so it’ll be interesting to see what the setup has to offer on Friday.
Here’s who sticks out in Round 2 at this weaker-field event:
Xander Schauffele was solid in the opening round, shooting one-under while gaining almost two strokes (1.98) on the field tee to green according to Data Golf.
As one of the top talents in the field, we like Schauffele’s chances of hanging around near the top of the leaderboard throughout Friday and into the weekend.
Top Play: Xander Schauffele LOWER Than 69 Strokes (Underdog)
Through the first round at The Valspar, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Ryan Fox (+6.90)
Stephan Jaeger (+4.91)
Luke List (+4.84)
Nick Hardy (+4.26)
Andrew Novak (+3.89)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Ryan Fox (+4.95)
Matthieu Pavon (+4.02)
Sami Valimaki (+3.56)
Quade Cummins (+3.20)
Nick Hardy (+3.10)
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