The Chiefs are gearing up for a showdown against the Denver Broncos on Thursday, Oct. 12. This Week 6 game is scheduled to start at 8:15 ET and will be broadcast on AMAZON. Kansas City comes into this matchup as 10.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 47.5. Will the Chiefs manage to secure a win as the favorite? Below, you’ll find our Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -10.5
- Total 47.5
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Oct 12
- Time: 8:15 ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
- TV: AMAZON
Broncos Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Broncos have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 0-4-1 vs. the spread.
- Through their last three road contests, the Broncos offense has averaged 25 points per game while allowing an average of 41. Denver posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-1-1 ATS.
- Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Broncos have a strong record vs the spread, going 3-2. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 0-5.
Chiefs Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Chiefs have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Kansas City has played well in their previous five home games, going 5-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 27 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
- Kansas City has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
Will the Broncos Defense Show Up in Kansas City?
In the AFC-West standings, the Broncos are placed 4th with a record of 1-4. Within the AFC, Denver holds the 16th spot as they approach week 6. The current scoring margin for the Broncos’ is -12, and this has contributed to their ATS record of 0-4-1.
In their last game, the Broncos played host to the Jets and lost by a score of 31-21. With the 10-point loss to the Jets, the Broncos also took a loss vs. the spread as 2.5-point favorites. With a set over/under line of 42.5 points, the game concluded with a combined total of 52 points, surpassing the betting line.
On offense, the Broncos finished with 308 yards against the Jets. On third-down situations, the Broncos had a 40% conversion rate. Notably, Jaleel McLaughlin led the rushing attack with 68 yards, while Russell Wilson passed for 196 yards.
Facing the Chiefs this week, the Broncos defense has allowed an average of 36.2 points per game. They currently rank 11th in quarterback hits and have allowed an average of 450.6 yards per contest.
Can the Chiefs Lock in a Home Win?
Taking a glance at the AFC-West standings, the Chiefs are 1st with a record of 4-1. Within the AFC, Kansas City is currently in 1st place as they enter week 6. Against the spread, the Chiefs have a record of 3-2. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently +9.6.
After a 27-20 victory over the Vikings, the Chiefs are looking for another win in week 6. Since they were favored by 3.5 against the Vikings, the Chiefs secured an ATS victory. In their most recent game against Minnesota, the pre-game over/under line was set at 52.5 leading the under to hit with a combined total of 47 points.
In their matchup against the Vikings, the Chiefs ran the ball 21 times, with Isiah Pacheco emerging as the top rusher with 55 yards. In the passing game, Patrick Mahomes finished with 41 passes, resulting in 281 yards and a passer rating of 109.
When it comes to turnovers, the Kansas City defense has forced six takeaways, putting them 7th in the NFL. Overall, they are allowing 16 points per game and yielding 301.4 yards.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Prop
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco boasts an average of 19.8 receiving yards per game this season, with a consistent median of 16 yards, and he’s exceeded 12.5 yards in three separate games. Recent data from PFF reveals that Pacheco has been slightly more active than Jerick McKinnon in recent routes. Since Week 3, Pacheco has executed 42 routes, while McKinnon, also known as Jet, has run 37.
Additionally, the Broncos have struggled in covering running backs in the passing domain, conceding an average of 51.2 receiving yards per game this season. Look for Pacheco to go over 12.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Isiah Pacheco Over 12.5 Receiving Yards | -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions
Since the opening spread was posted, Kansas City has seen movement from -10 point favorites to their current line of -10.5.
In this game, I’m favoring Denver to cover the spread as 10.5-point underdogs. Although we have the Chiefs winning straight-up, the Broncos figure to put up some late garbage time points and the margin should fall within the current spread of +10.5.
The Pick: Broncos +10.5 | -111 at Fanduel Sportsbook
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