The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, August 12
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.19 ERA indicates
Berrios has struggled quite a bit this season. He’s posted an 8-4 record with a 5.19 ERA through 22 starts. He’s gotten extremely unlucky, though, as he also owns 4.06 xFIP and a .310 BABIP.
Berrios has been drastically better at home this season. He isn’t due for regression at home, as his 3.23 ERA and 3.42 xFIP nearly match each other.
Berrios gets a plus matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight, though. They currently rank 23rd in the MLB in team wOBA (.287) over the last 14 days. Cleveland’s also been an average offense against right-handed pitching since July 16th.
Bottom Line: Berrios is due for positive regression overall, but he isn’t due for it at home. Regardless, he gets a plus matchup against Cleveland, and he should find plenty of success in this game.
Austin Voth: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.53 ERA suggests
Voth has struggled through limited innings in 2022. He’s recorded a 2-1 record with a 5.53 ERA through 31 games (8 starts). He owns a ridiculous .363 BABIP and 3.91 xFIP, suggesting he’s throwing significantly better than his baseline metrics show.
Most pitchers work better as relievers, but that isn’t the case for Voth. His xFIP drops to 3.72 through 31 innings as a starter. He also owns a dominant 3.19 ERA as a starting pitcher this season.
Voth gets a plus matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They’ve been struggling, ranking 21st in the MLB in team wOBA (.288) over the last 14 days. The right-hander will also benefit from throwing in a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Voth has performed well as a starter in 2022, and he gets a plus matchup tonight. He can find success in this game.
Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.38 ERA suggests
Kopech has looked outstanding through 20 starts. He owns a 4-8 record with a 3.38 ERA. His xFIP sits well below that at 4.90, though.
Kopech saw a string of bad games in the middle of the season, but he’s thrown well recently. With that being said, his xFIP has sat drastically higher than his ERA in 4 of his last 5 starts. It’s only a matter of time before he goes through a rough stretch again.
Luckily for the right-hander, he gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers tonight. Detroit features one of the worst offenses in the MLB, and there’s very little reason to believe they’ll find success.
Bottom Line: Kopech is due for plenty of regression as the season continues, but it isn’t likely to come tonight. His matchup against Detroit is too good.
