Best MLB Prop Bets Today - Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)

Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? The Props crew compiles their favorite picks for every day of the baseball season.

Below are our top MLB player props across different categories like strikeouts, home runs, and total bases. We also have team MLB prop bets like NRFI props and same-game parlay picks included.

Best MLB Player Props Today – Thursday, Mar. 27

Our analysts have done their due diligence to pinpoint their favorite MLB prop bets. Let’s see which props they like most today.

William Contreras More Than 7.5 Fantasy Points

Hitters are awarded 3.0 fantasy points for a single, 6.0 for a double, 8.0 for a triple, 10.0 for a home run, 3.0 for a walk, 3.0 for a hit by pitch (HBP), 2.0 for an RBI, 2.0 for a run, and 4.0 for a stolen base at Underdog. William Contreras has a well-rounded offensive profile. So, he can score fantasy points in a multitude of ways.

Milwaukee’s catcher has established himself as a top-shelf hitter. According to FanGraphs, since 2022, he’s had a 139 wRC+, 125 wRC+, and 131 wRC+, jumping from 376 plate appearances for the Braves in 2022 to 611 for the Brewers in 2023 and 679 for the Beer Makers in 2024. Thus, he’s validated his excellence from a part-time role with the Braves in 2022.

The right-handed-hitting catcher is a terror for southpaws. In 462 plate appearances against lefties since 2023, Contreras has hit 80 singles, 35 doubles, one triple, and 19 homers with 60 walks, a .340 batting average, .425 OBP, .577 SLG, .237 ISO, and 173 wRC+. He’s torn the cover off the ball against lefties while also working walks at an elite rate (13.0 BB%), making his fantasy points over a more appealing selection than total bases or hits + runs + RBIs since he could conceivably score fantasy points with walks, which wouldn’t help his over for hits + runs + RBIs.

Contreras is also a source of run production after scoring 99 runs and tallying 92 RBIs last year. He’s not a slouch on the bases, either. Contreras swiped nine bases in 2024. He has a favorable matchup on Opening Day. Last year, Carlos Rodon allowed 27 doubles, three triples, 28 homers, a .238 batting average, .309 OBP, .454 SLG, and .330 wOBA to 601 right-handed batters. Thus, Contreras should exceed 7.5 fantasy points on Thursday afternoon.

Where to play: William Contreras More Than 7.5 Fantasy Points | Underdog

Mike Trout More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Injuries have been Mike Trout’s bugaboo in the last handful of years. Nevertheless, he still swings an elite bat when on the diamond. Even with an absurdly unlucky .194 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last season, in 126 plate appearances, Trout hit 10 homers and stole six bases with 17 runs, 14 RBIs, .220 batting average, .325 OBP, .541 SLG, .321 ISO, and 139 wRC+. Trout also had a .271 xBA and .591 xSLG, reinforcing the idea that he was unlucky on his batted balls last year.

The former multi-time American League MVP also had a superb spring. In 16 games and 49 plate appearances in spring training, Trout had three homers, six runs, five RBIs, a .297 batting average, .469 OBP, .595 SLG, .297 ISO, and 178 wRC+. Circling back to production in meaningful games, Trout has obliterated right-handed pitching.

In 488 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since 2023, Trout has smashed 28 homers with a .252 batting average, .357 OBP, .504 SLG, .252 ISO, and 135 wRC+. He can destroy even high-quality right-handed pitchers, and the right-handed starter he’s facing on Opening Day is likely at the other end of the spectrum.

Sean Burke acquitted himself well in four appearances (three starts) lasting 19.0 innings last year, spinning a 1.42 ERA, 3.83 xERA, 3.47 xFIP, 3.56 SIERA, and 1.00 WHIP. Yet, last year, the 19.0 innings for the Pale Hose were an outlier in his professional career. According to Baseball Reference, in 27 starts totaling 108.0 innings in Triple-A, Burke has had a 6.08 ERA and 1.491 WHIP. He was a punching bag in the upper minors, and Trout is much better than the hitters he faced in Triple-A. The Angels don’t have a deep lineup, but the top of the order is stellar, and Trout should have run-production opportunities against the White Sox. Finally, FantasyPros projects Trout to have 2.06 hits + runs + RBIs on Opening Day.

Where to play: Mike Trout More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | Underdog

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Paul Skenes Less Than 3.01 ERA

Paul Skenes was the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB Amateur Draft. He was a collegiate stud, concluding his amateur career with a 1.69 ERA, 1.10 FIP, 0.75 WHIP, 4.3 BB%, and 45.2 K% in 19 starts, totaling 122.2 innings for LSU. Skenes wasn’t a smoke-and-mirrors pitcher. Instead, he had front-of-the-rotation stuff, hence, the Pirates popping him first overall in the MLB Amateur Draft.

Skenes wasted no time in the minors, getting his feet wet in his draft season before tormenting Triple-A hitters for seven starts in 2023 and putting on a show for the Pirates. According to FanGraphs, in seven starts spanning 27.1 innings in Triple-A last year, Skenes had a 0.99 ERA, 2.07 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 7.6 BB%, and 42.9 K%. Obviously, Skenes couldn’t duplicate his Triple-A production in the Majors. Nevertheless, he was one of the best pitchers in The Show and earned the National League Rookie of the Year Award.

In 23 starts spanning 133.0 innings for Pittsburgh, Skenes had a 1.96 ERA, 2.53 xERA, 2.54 xFIP, 2.71 SIERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, 33.1 K%, 13.1 SwStr%, 29.4 CSW%, 110 Stuff+, 110 Location+ and 115 Pitching+. His ERA estimators and underlying data didn’t entirely validate Skenes’ 1.96 ERA. Still, he had sparkling ERA estimators, a sky-high strikeout rate, and jaw-dropping pitch-modeling metrics.

Skenes is a genuine National League Cy Young Award candidate and is priced accordingly across sportsbooks. He’ll almost certainly need a sub-3.01 ERA to be a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young Award, so the sportsbooks suggest he should go under this line. Most of the projection models also predict the sophomore hurler to post a sub-3.01 ERA this year.

Where to play: Paul Skenes Less Than 3.01 ERA | Underdog

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Hunter Brown Less Than 3.65 ERA

Hunter Brown had an ugly 5.09 ERA in 31 appearances (29 starts) spanning 155.2 innings in 2023, but his ERA estimators and underlying data indicated he was unlucky. In 2023, he also had a 4.27 xERA, 3.52 xFIP, 3.74 SIERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.3 BB%, 26.8 K%, 10.6 SwStr%, 27.3 CSW%, 96 Stuff+, 102 Location+, and 100 Pitching+. Astute gamblers, fantasy baseball gamers, and baseball fans could have predicted a breakout for Brown in 2024, and they were correct.

However, it looked more like the same for Brown at the beginning of the 2024 season. Through his first six starts totaling 23.0 innings in 2024, Brown had a 9.78 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 4.72 SIERA, 2.22 WHIP, 12.2 BB%, 20.9 K%, 9.0 SwStr%, 25.4 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 94 Location+, and 92 Pitching+. Actually, calling it the same for Brown was inaccurate, as he took a step back to start 2024. He figured it out after his rough patch to begin the year.

Starting in May, Brown unleashed a sinker in his repertoire, and he thrived. In Brown’s final 25 appearances (24 starts) spanning 147.0 innings in 2024, he had a 2.51 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 26.0 K%, 10.5 SwStr%, 27.3 CSW%, 104 Stuff+, 102 Location+, and 106 Pitching+.

Brown was outstanding from May 1 through the end of last season, with the underlying data and a tangible tweak to his repertoire to point to as a viable reason for the improvement. Even with his brutal beginning to 2024, Brown had a 3.49 ERA, 3.31 xERA, 3.47 xFIP, and 3.74 SIERA. Thus, even if Brown doesn’t pitch at the same level as post-May, Brown should tally a sub-3.65 ERA again this season.

Where to play: Hunter Brown Less Than 3.65 ERA | Underdog

What Is A Player Prop?

A prop bet is a newer way to bet on sports in the US sports betting industry, but it has been around for a long time. Prop betting used to be only offered at the Super Bowl or other major sporting events, but that is no longer the case.

The term prop bet stands for a propositional bet, and it’s a wager that typically doesn’t have anything to do with the final score of a game. Prop bets can be made throughout a game, or you can extend this type of wager into a full season.

MLB Prop Options

Now that you understand the difference between fun and skill prop bets, you also need to know when and what betting options are available. Each sportsbook will have different MLB prop betting markets, but there are some very similar options that you will find as well.

MLB Player Prop Bets

Prop betting is dependent on the bettor as to which is the most popular option, but sportsbooks tend to offer more player prop betting markets than any other kind. A player prop bet is a wager placed on just one player, and it usually focuses on a specific statistic.

There are times that sportsbooks will put two players against each other to create a prop bet, but that is similar to what a DFS game looks like. Player prop betting usually focuses on the top players in each MLB game.

Here are some MLB player prop options:

Will Gerrit have over/under 9.5 strikeouts?
Will Kris Bryant hit a home run in this game?

Additionally, you can see each of these in action along with detailed analysis in our dedicated MLB player prop articles:

Strikeout Props

MLB Team Prop Bets

A team prop is similar to an individual prop bet, but the wager focuses on an entire team rather than just one player. This is another prop betting option that will have more markets when a better matchup is being played.

Here are some potential team prop betting options that you would see at a sportsbook:

Will the Chicago Cubs score over/under 5.5 total runs?
Will there be a run in the first inning? Also known as NRFI or YRFI.
The team that leads after 5 innings: Mets, Red Sox, or Tie

Full Season MLB Prop Bets

If you are a sports bettor who enjoys making futures bets, you will likely be interested in a full-season MLB prop bet. These are bets that don’t just cover one game in the season but take a look at the entire schedule in its entirety.

Both individual and team prop betting options will be included when it comes to a full-season MLB prop bet. These bets are usually open months before a season begins, and they might close once the games are underway.

Here are some potential options of what you might see:

Best record in baseball: American League or National League
Will any player win the Triple Crown? Yes or no
Who will win the NL MVP or AL MVP?

Where To Place MLB Prop Bets

The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your MLB player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NBA player props.

You can’t go wrong with BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in your state:

MLB DFS Pick’Em FAQ

We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.

You’ll often find a lot of value and strong payouts available at legal DFS sites. These apps are also available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.

Check out our resources on these DFS pick’em sites:

Top Online Sportsbook And DFS Bonuses By State

Click on your state from the list below to see the best online sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites available in your area:

MLB Prop Betting Tips

Now that you have a better understanding of how MLB prop betting works, it is time to take a look at some MLB prop betting tips that you can use to be successful.

Location Of Game

There isn’t a major home-field advantage when it comes to MLB games, but the location of a game does matter. Each ballpark is unique around baseball, and those different fields affect the MLB prop betting matchups.

You also need to check the weather for each game before placing an MLB prop bet as well. Most bettors always do this when betting on a baseball game, but it needs to be done when making an MLB prop betting wager as well.

Pitching Matchups

No matter what type of MLB bet you are looking to make, you always need to start your research by looking at the starting pitching matchups. Other factors determine an MLB game, but everything starts on the mound.

If you are betting on a particular batter’s performance in a game, you need to be sure that he isn’t facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. You also don’t want to make a player prop bet on a pitcher facing a tremendous offensive lineup.

Slumps vs. Streaks

Since the MLB season is so long, players and teams tend to go through long streaks at different season points. Looking at recent trends is one of the first things you will want to look at before making a prop betting wager.

These trends can always change, but finding out which players and teams are streaking and slumping can help you make successful MLB prop wagers. This can help in all forms of MLB betting, but it is especially true when focusing on props.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)

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