Each week, Props.com will highlight the seven collegiate programs with the shortest odds of reaching the College Football Playoff, regardless of where they sit in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll.
To nobody’s surprise, No. 1 Alabama remains the overwhelming favorite to reach the Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl (the sites hosting the national semifinals). The Crimson Tide are fresh off a tough 31-29 victory at Florida, but that close shave didn’t hurt their playoff chances in the eyes of oddsmakers or the betting public.
A fellow SEC squad joins Alabama among this week’s list of playoff favorites, along with the Pac-12 and Big 12 frontrunners and a trio of Big Ten squads.
Make sure to check back each week, as upset losses and surprising wins will surely shake up this list on a regular basis. The only thing we know for certain? This will be a season-long race of three teams vying for four spots … since the SEC champion always makes the Final Four.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 22.
ALABAMA
RECORD: 3-0 (ranked No. 1, unchanged from last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes -750 / No +450
WHY ALABAMA HOLDS ALL THE PLAYOFF CARDS:
— Dating to 2019, the top-ranked Crimson Tide have won 17 straight games, with the latest being Saturday’s narrow triumph over the Gators in The Swamp. How competitive was Saturday’s close call? The Gators didn’t drop a single slot in the top 25 poll despite falling at home. That speaks to the power of the Alabama brand: a competitive home loss is almost perceived as a victory.
— Alabama’s strength-of-schedule quotient should hold up well in October and November. The Crimson Tide, who already possess top 25 victories over Miami (neutral field) and Florida (road), still have four ranked SEC clubs on the docket: No. 13 Ole Miss (home), No. 7 Texas A&M (road), No. 16 Arkansas (home) and No. 23 Auburn (road).
— The only conceivable way the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t invite the Tide to the dance is if they suffer two losses. Considering Nick Saban’s squad has surrendered more than 25 points just twice in its last 13 games—both times to Florida—that’s unlikely.
GEORGIA
RECORD/RANKING: 3-0 (ranked No. 2, unchanged from last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes -320 / No +230
WHY GEORGIA CAN AFFORD TO PLAY THE WAITING GAME:
— The great thing about being part of the highly regarded SEC? You don’t have to face a murderer’s-row schedule to get the selection committee’s attention. So even though Georgia doesn’t have to play Alabama, Texas A&M, or LSU this season, it faces a rather easy path to the SEC East title. And if the Dawgs get to the SEC championship game undefeated, they’re a virtual shoo-in to make the Final Four, even if they lose the league crown (especially if that loss is to Alabama).
— Even if Georgia suffers a regular-season loss on Oct. 30 in its annual rivalry game against Florida in Jacksonville, its SEC East title (and College Football Playoff) hopes won’t necessarily be dashed. That’s because the Gators face a much more daunting schedule and could easily suffer a second loss, which put the Bulldogs back in the SEC East driver’s seat.
— Georgia owns top-four national rankings in total defense (216.7 yards per game), scoring defense (7.67 points per contest), and sacks (4.67 per game). Throw in a rejuvenated offense that has collected eight touchdown passes in the last two weeks, and there’s every reason to believe UGA will be prohibitive betting favorites the rest of the way, including at Auburn on Oct. 9.
— In the College Football Playoff era (2014-present), there hasn’t been a No. 1 vs. No. 2 clash in a conference championship game. As such, there’s no way of knowing if the Alabama-Georgia loser would be a lock for the playoff. This uncertainty should place extra pressure on the Dawgs in terms of taking care of all regular-season business in a convincing fashion.
OREGON (3-0)
RECORD/RANKING: 3-0 (ranked No. 3, up from No. 4 last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes -255 / No +190
WHY OREGON CONTROLS ITS PLAYOFF DESTINY:
— The Pac-12 only has two teams ranked in the top 25, and No. 24 UCLA just suffered a home loss to Fresno State (as an 11-point favorite). That leaves No. 3 Oregon as the conference’s lone unbeaten team, and thus the only plausible hope for reaching the College Football Playoff. And the calendar still reads September!
— In most years, the Pac-12’s mediocre national standing would be a hindrance to Oregon’s CFP résumé (short of winning every game by 40-plus points). However, 2021 should offer a different perspective for committee voters, since the Ducks have already slain the biggest dragon on their schedule (upending Ohio State on the road). To this point in the season, no other program can match the enormity of Oregon’s road shocker in Columbus—and it’s doubtful any playoff contender will match it the rest of the way.
— There’s also a sentimental component to Ducks’ playoff candidacy: The Pac-12 has had just two representatives selected for college football’s marquee event since its inception seven years ago (Oregon in 2014, Washington in 2016). That said, it’s crystal clear that the Ducks could ill afford a loss of any kind and still get a playoff invite.
OKLAHOMA
RECORD/RANKING: 3-0 (ranked No. 4, down one spot from last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes -170 / No +140
WHY OKLAHOMA MIGHT HAVE TO SCOREBOARD-WATCH THIS SEASON:
— Oklahoma fans shouldn’t be too concerned about their team swapping spots with Oregon in this week’s poll. As long as the Sooners stay undefeated in Big 12 play and win the conference title, there should be a spot waiting for them in the four-team playoff.
Of course, things could get dicey if No. 12 Notre Dame powers through its formidable schedule (Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, North Carolina) without a loss. The Fighting Irish traditionally are catnip to TV audiences, which is always a consideration for the CFP committee.
— Because the Big 12 is fairly weak again this season, Oklahoma (like Oregon) is probably staring at an undefeated-or-bust situation. It won’t be easy with West Virginia (this Saturday in Norman) and Iowa State on the schedule, not to mention unbeaten Sooners slayer Kansas State on Oct. 2. Speaking of the latter, since 2017, Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley owns a sparkling 31-3 record against every Big 12 opponent (including conference title games) not named Kansas State. When facing the Wildcats during this stretch, the Sooners are 2-2 (including back-to-back upset defeats in 2019 and 2020).
OHIO STATE
RECORD/RANKING: 2-1 (ranked No. 10, down one spot from last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes +175 / No -225
WHY OHIO STATE CANNOT AFFORD ANOTHER SLIP-UP:
— Ohio State currently rates as the most confident bet among the also-ran crowd of plus-money playoff contenders. Our best guess as to why a one-loss Buckeyes squad would be left on the outside of the playoff party: If Georgia and Alabama are unbeaten entering the SEC title game, the selection committee would be more amenable to taking the loser of that contest over a one-loss Ohio State Big Ten champ. In other words, the Buckeyes might end up paying for that home loss to Oregon all season.
— Despite its plus-money odds, Ohio State is still the betting favorite to represent the Big Ten in the four-team Playoff, even though No. 5 Iowa and No. 6 Penn State are both undefeated.
— Could the Buckeyes (as a one-loss Big Ten champion) usurp an undefeated Oklahoma, Cincinnati, or Notre Dame for the final playoff spot? Probably not, since an undefeated Power 5 conference champion has never been excluded from the national semifinals. However, the No. 8 Bearcats would be an interesting test case, since OSU likely would have a stronger strength of schedule rating and perhaps a higher national ranking.
— There are obvious reasons why Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson (in most years, anyway) are held in such high regard with the ever-changing selection committees. All three programs churn out elite-level athletes for the NFL and consistently generate massive TV eyeballs.
Consequently, whether fair or not, Alabama and Ohio State typically can absorb an early-season defeat and still remain in the playoff hunt.
PENN STATE
RECORD/RANKING: 3-0 (ranked No. 6, up four spots from last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes +500 / No -800
WHY PENN STATE HAS THE TOUGHEST ROAD TO THE PLAYOFF:
— Ohio State already has one loss. And either Alabama or Georgia will incur at least one defeat at some point (even if it’s in the SEC championship game). Yet oddsmakers this week have Penn State as a far greater long shot to make the Final Four, even though the Nittany Lions already own signature wins over Wisconsin (road) and Auburn (home).
— Here’s why that is: Penn State still has a daunting road ahead, and it’s difficult to imagine it will survive unscathed. The Nittany Lions have upcoming trips to Iowa (Oct. 9), Ohio State (Oct. 30) and suddenly resurgent Michigan State (Nov. 27). They welcome No. 19 (and currently undefeated) Michigan to Happy Valley in mid-November.
— The College Football Playoff committee has never tapped a two-loss club for the four-team postseason. They also have only selected one non-conference champion (Alabama in 2017). That leaves Penn State with two reasonable paths to the playoff. Option No. 1: Run the table, including winning the league crown (do that, and the Lions are in without question). Option No. 2: Somehow win the Big Ten East with one loss, post an impressive victory in the conference championship game (ideally against highly ranked Iowa) … and hope there are a bunch of other one-loss teams at that point.
IOWA
RECORD/RANKING: 3-0 (ranked No. 5, unchanged from last week)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ODDS: Yes +600 / No -1100
WHY IOWA SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AS A PLAYOFF HOPEFUL:
— Through three games, Iowa boasts the Big Ten’s No. 1 scoring defense (allowing 8.0 points per game) and No. 2 rush defense (81.0 yards per contest). Those stats don’t figure to get a whole lot worse, considering the Hawkeyes have the easiest remaining schedule of any Big Ten powerhouse. That’s the result of No. 6 Penn State visiting Iowa City on Oct. 9 (not to mention zero East Division crossover games against Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State).
— Iowa’s (seemingly) easy conference schedule actually might be a double-edged sword. Yes, other than Penn State, the Hawkeyes’ toughest remaining games figure to be against Maryland (Oct. 1 on the road) and Minnesota (Nov. 13 at home). However, if they lose either of those contests (or fall to Illinois or Nebraska in November), there’s likely no chance they can climb back in the playoff hunt.
— Could Iowa absorb a home loss to Penn State and keep their playoff hopes alive? Perhaps. Here are two scenarios:
1. Ohio State beats the rest of its opponents, including Penn State (home), Indiana (road), Maryland (home), Michigan State (home), and Michigan (road), but falls to one-loss Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Before that championship kickoff, the Buckeyes would likely carry a College Football Playoff ranking of No. 6 or better.
2. Penn State finishes the regular season unbeaten and wins the Big Ten East; one-loss Iowa takes the Big Ten West, and the Hawkeyes win a rematch against the Nittany Lions for the conference title. In that situation, Iowa would get a major strength-of-schedule boost, given Penn State’s lofty CFP ranking.
Either scenario could happen, but the reality is this: Iowa essentially has no margin for error.
