As we move into Week 3 of the NFL season, we are getting a better understanding of which defenses are susceptible to the run and which running backs are most likely to take advantage. That will play a heavy role in the following NFL running back props for the upcoming slate of games.
Chase Edmonds – Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
Chase Edmonds has been a bit of a forgotten man in Arizona. Quarterback Kyler Murray looks like an MVP, DeAndre Hopkins shines each and every week, and rookie Rondale Moore (he has a nice prop this week too) is flashing the same big-play ability we saw from him in college. Who has time to talk about a running back with all this fast break speed?
Even with all that, Edmonds went over 43 yards in both of Arizona’s wins, and this week he gets to play against a terrible Jaguars defense. Edmonds should be successful all game long, and with a big lead late, expect him to get a heavy dose of carries that easily takes him over 43 yards. This is one of the better NFL running back props to target for Week 3.
Alvin Kamara – Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
What to expect from Alvin Kamara? In Week 1 he ran for 83 yards. In Week 2 he ran for five.
While he may not be the 83-yard back against a team like the Patriots, he’s definitely not the five-yard back he was against the Panthers. He is the best player on the Saints, and as they try to rebound from their 26-7 loss to Carolina, they will make sure he has the football.
Also to consider, the Patriots gave up 5.4 ypc to Myles Gaskin in Week 1, and 5.3 ypc to Michael Carter in Week 2. Kamara is a much better running back than those two, and he will hit the over.
Melvin Gordon – Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
Similar to the Chase Edmonds pick, betting on Melvin Gordon to hit the over is about the big lead the Broncos should have late in the game against the Jets. It’s also possible that Gordon goes well over 57 yards before we ever get to the fourth quarter.
The Jets gave up 98 yards to Christian McCaffrey in Week 1 and 62 yards to Damien Harris in Week 2. Gordon put up 101 rushing yards against the other New York team in Week 1, and he will once again hit the over in Week 3.
Elijah Mitchell – Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
Following the Week 1 injury to Raheem Mostert and the breakout performance from Elijah Mitchell, he was the hottest name in no-name running backs. But after 104 yards and a touchdown against the Lions, Mitchell went for just 42 yards and no touchdowns against the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s defense is considerably better than Detroit’s, but not that much better. And Kyle Shanahan being Kyle Shanhan, don’t be surprised if he mixes up the workload of his running backs this week against the Packers. Mitchell may still get double-digits in carries, but we will probably see more of Trey Sermon and JaMycal Hasty, who ran quite well in Philadelphia.
This number for Mitchell is begging to go under.
