Underdog NFLSZN picks are on the board! Training camp just started, and there is plenty of news and speculation throughout the football world.
There are a ton of variables at play when scouting the best 2025 player projections and lines to pick, whether it’s personnel changes, new schemes, or regression candidates.
Underdog NFLSZN Picks – 2025 Season-Long Predictions
Training camp is heating up, and it’s time to dive into some early numbers to take advantage of. Let’s dive into the Underdog NFLSZN picks!
Isaiah Pacheco Props
The hype was real surrounding Pacheco entering the 2024 NFL season. He missed over two months in the heart of the season and was clearly never right. While he came back, it certainly looked to be premature, and Kareem Hunt held onto a majority of the starting workload.
The truth is, the Chiefs need Pacheco to return to his pre-injury form, and I’m also willing to bet on him playing at a high level again. Hunt was definitely not the answer, as he ranked 64th out of 70 running backs (with at least 50 rushing attempts) last season in missed tackles per attempt (via Fantasy Points). That stat means exactly what you think it does – he gets tackled too easily.
Kansas City brought in the oft-injured Elijah Mitchell, who could carve out a nice third-down role if 7th-round rookie Brashard Smith doesn’t find his footing. That being said, it shouldn’t affect Pacheco’s early-down or goal-line work so much, assuming he has a nice camp.
In 2023, Pacheco received 60% of KC’s carries inside the 5-yard line. The 26-year-old tailback doesn’t have too much tread on his tires, and if he seizes his opportunity to take a bulk of the work in camp, he could clear this number by October.
Pick: Higher Than 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Calvin Ridley Props
A change in quarterback play is a big reason why this number is so appealing. The combination of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph was downright horrible, but hey, it landed the organization Cam Ward. This number ultimately feels very low from a season-long standpoint on Underdog.
Nobody knows for sure how Ward will perform in year one, but Underdog has him for over 3,100 passing yards, and he actually has an identical passing-yard projection as Jalen Hurts, who we are expecting to support both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.
Just how bad was the Titans’ quarterback room last year? Ridley ranked 109th of 116th pass-catchers (minimum of 50 routes) in catchable target rate. He still produced over 1,000 yards.
For what it’s worth, Rome Odunze ranked dead last in that department, so there has to be room for positive regression there as well, especially when you consider a new offensive-minded head coach and scheme. He’s intriguing too, but there are suddenly a ton of mouths to feed in Chicago, but we have a pretty clear idea where the volume should be going in Tennessee.
The Titans brought in a $50M left tackle in Dan Moore, they moved JC Latham back to his natural position at right tackle, and Lloyd Cushenberry (2024’s big OL signing) should be back. It’s TBD if Brian Callahan’s scheme is any good, but he deserves a pass after the Levis experience.
On tape, it appears skill players were getting open, the quarterback play was just horrid, and nothing was on time. This seems like a bad projection, and while I don’t expect Tennessee to move mountains, it’s going to be difficult to top last season’s monstrosity.
Pick: Higher Than 899.5 Receiving Yards
RJ Harvey Props
Denver signed J.K. Dobbins a few weeks ago, which seemed to make things a bit murky as we enter late July, but there will surely be a role for Harvey.
It was great to see Dobbins play football again last year, but he certainly didn’t have the same burst that he did before a few brutal injuries that he’s endured over the past couple of seasons. The Broncos used “real” draft capital this year on Harvey in the second round.
Organizations typically don’t pay that kind of premium for a project, especially considering most franchises have decided to devalue the running back position and take a committee or cheaper approach.
Previous Sean Payton systems have supported multiple running backs. Even if Dobbins “starts” the season, if Denver wants to put the best product on the field, those roles will be reversed sooner rather than later.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), his “rushing grade against Power-5 opponents was 93.4 over the past three years, which was just ahead of Blake Corum, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, and just below Cam Skattebo, Damien Martinez and Bucky Irving.” That’s pretty good company to be a part of.
Harvey needs to average just 43 rushing yards per game during the regular season to eclipse this total, and I think he can crush it with a decent camp. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one catch some steam. Harvey is one of my favorite Underdog NFLSZN picks.
Pick: Higher Than 724.5 Rushing Yards
