This recurring article series will guide you through the best UFC props for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Park Hernandez
Looking for the best UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez
Roman Dolidze (15-3) is set to face Anthony Hernandez (14-2, 1 NC) in a high-stakes middleweight clash on Saturday. Dolidze enters the bout on a three-fight winning streak, having earned victories over Kevin Holland, Anthony Smith, and most recently, Marvin Vettori.
His win over Vettori came via dominant five-round unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 254 on March 15, further solidifying his place among the division’s elite. The 36-year-old Georgian has combined physicality with tactical striking and improved endurance to build momentum.
Hernandez comes into the contest riding a seven-fight win streak inside the Octagon. Known for his pressure and submission game, “Fluffy” most recently outpointed Brendan Allen in a unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 252 on February 22.
Hernandez has finished five of his seven recent opponents, with key wins over Edmen Shahbazyan, Roman Kopylov, and Michel Pereira. His ability to blend volume, grappling, and cardio has made him one of the most consistent threats in the division.
Dolidze will look to control the pace early with his measured striking and physicality in the clinch. His recent five-round win showed improved cardio and composure, and he’s proven capable of slowing fights down and picking his spots. He’ll aim to keep the fight standing, punish with counters, and stuff takedowns to avoid extended grappling exchanges. While he’s powerful and durable, his methodical approach can leave openings for opponents with higher output.
Hernandez thrives in high-pressure, high-pace environments. His seven-fight win streak has been built on relentless pressure, constant movement, and a suffocating grappling game. He’ll try to overwhelm with chain wrestling and aggressive scrambles, looking to drag the fight into deeper waters where he can break opponents mentally and physically.
However, he’s been vulnerable in striking exchanges early, and against a patient opponent, he risks eating counters if he rushes entries.
Pick: The fight will not go the distance | FanDuel
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
Steve Erceg (12-4) will meet Ode Osbourne (13-8-1) in a pivotal flyweight showdown. Perez, a former title challenger, has struggled to regain momentum since his championship opportunity at UFC 255, where he was submitted in the first round by Deiveson Figueiredo on November 21, 2020.
Since then, he’s lost four of his last five in the UFC. Most recently, Perez was stopped by Tatsuro Taira via second-round TKO at UFC on ESPN 58 on June 15, 2024.
For Osbourne, the stakes are undeniable. After years of alternating wins and losses while fluctuating between flyweight and bantamweight, the Jamaican-born American steps into this bout eager to find stability and momentum.
Osbourne is coming off an impressive second-round TKO win over Luis Gurule at UFC on ESPN 65 on April 5, a performance that reignited hopes of a breakthrough run. Known for his explosive starts and high-octane style, Osbourne understands that time is running short to establish himself as a true contender in one of the UFC’s most unpredictable divisions.
A dominant performance against a former title challenger could mark the turning point of his career.
Erceg will come into this fight with a style built on durability, forward pressure, and calculated grappling transitions. Despite recent setbacks, he’s gone the distance with elite names and proven he can hang in deep waters. His biggest assets are his ability to stay composed during scrambles and gradually impose a grinding pace over three rounds.
While not known for explosive finishes, Erceg wears opponents down with persistence and consistency. However, a lack of urgency in close rounds has cost him decisions against faster starters.
Osbourne thrives on early chaos and speed, with a fast-twitch striking arsenal that can overwhelm opponents before they settle in. His recent second-round TKO win demonstrated his explosiveness when he controls the tempo.
The danger lies in his tendency to fade when fights extend, and his inconsistency in defending takedowns and regaining position once grounded. He’ll look to end things early, but if forced to grapple or go deep into the third round, his chances drop significantly. Look for Erceg to capitalize on his late-fight endurance and positional control.
Pick: The fight will not go the distance | FanDuel
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape have evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
