This recurring UFC props article series will guide you through the best MMA plays for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
Best Apps in The United States
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Props
Looking for the best UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley
Dvalishvili (19-4) is set to put his bantamweight title on the line in a highly anticipated rematch against O’Malley (18-2, 1 NC), carrying a dominant 12-fight win streak into the cage.
“The Machine” steamrolled O’Malley in their first meeting at UFC 306 on September 14, earning a lopsided unanimous decision to capture the belt. He followed that up with a successful title defense at UFC 311 on January 18, grinding out a five-round decision over previously unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov to solidify his grip on the division.
O’Malley will make his return to action for the first time since surrendering the belt to Dvalishvili. “Suga” underwent hip surgery following the loss and has spent the last several months recovering.
The flashy striker and Dana White’s Contender Series product boasts a 10-2 record with one no contest inside the UFC Octagon, with signature wins over Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling, and Marlon Vera anchoring his résumé. Now healthy, he looks to flip the script and reclaim his spot at the top of the 135-pound division.
Dvalishvili will take control of the rematch the same way he did the first fight by setting a brutal pace from the opening minute and never letting O’Malley find his rhythm. Dvalishvili’s pressure, takedowns, and non-stop activity will smother O’Malley again, especially now that Merab has proven he can outlast elite strikers over five rounds, as he did against Umar Nurmagomedov.
O’Malley’s best chance will come early, using footwork, kicks, and sharp counters to punish Dvalishvili’s entries. But coming off hip surgery and with no tune-up fight, he’ll struggle to match Dvalishvili’s cardio and grappling intensity.
Once Merab closes the distance and starts chaining takedowns, O’Malley will be forced to defend and survive more than he can lead or create offense. Dvalishvili wins by unanimous decision after dominating the pace and position for most of the five rounds.
Pick: The fight will go the distance: Yes (-260) | FanDuel
Pick: Merab Dvalishvili by points (-150) | FanDuel
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
Peña (13-5) is set to defend her bantamweight title against Harrison (18-1) in a high-stakes championship showdown. Peña reclaimed the 135-pound crown with a razor-thin split decision win over Raquel Pennington at UFC 307 on October 5, marking her first appearance in over two years.
Peña’s path back to gold began with a historic upset, submitting Amanda Nunes in the second round at UFC 269 on December 11, 2021. However, that momentum was halted when she dropped a clear unanimous decision in the rematch at UFC 277 on July 30, 2022.
Harrison, a decorated two-time Olympic gold medalist and former PFL champion, has stormed into the UFC spotlight with two dominant wins. She made a massive statement in her promotional debut at UFC 300, submitting former titleholder Holly Holm in the second round.
The 34-year-old then extended her run with a convincing unanimous decision victory over Ketlen Vieira at UFC 307, on the same card where Peña reclaimed the belt. With 18 wins in 19 pro fights, she now gets her first shot at UFC gold.
Harrison will push the pace early, looking to close distance and turn the title fight into a clinch-heavy, ground-dominant affair. With elite-level judo and top control honed over years of PFL and Olympic competition, Harrison will aim to neutralize Peña’s boxing and break her rhythm with throws and mat pressure. Expect Harrison to dictate where the fight takes place and control long periods on the ground.
Peña will show grit and persistence, especially in scrambles and during early exchanges. She’s never been easy to bully and brings a durable, volume-based striking style that could trouble Harrison if the fight stays standing. However, Harrison’s physicality, strength, and grappling precision will make it difficult for Peña to establish momentum or create extended offense.
Pick: The fight will not go the distance (-205) | FanDuel
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape has evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
Top UFC Sportsbook Sign-Up Offers
Disclaimer: Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Top UFC DFS Pick’em Sign-Up Offers
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
