This recurring UFC props article series will guide you through the best MMA plays for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
Best Apps in The United States
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Looking for the best UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Editor’s note: Bet all of this week’s UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira props at FanDuel Sportsbook now!
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Ilia Topuria (16-0) is set to face Charles Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC) for the vacant UFC lightweight title at UFC 317. After conquering the featherweight division, Topuria vacated his 145-pound crown and moved up in pursuit of a second belt. Though he initially targeted a showdown with Islam Makhachev, the then-lightweight champion vacated his title to chase gold at welterweight, opening the door for this matchup.
Topuria has finished 14 of his 16 career victories and remains unbeaten through eight UFC appearances. His run includes a brutal second-round knockout of Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298 on February 17, 2024, to capture the featherweight title. He later defended it with a statement win at UFC 308 on October 26, where he handed Max Holloway the first knockout loss of his career.
Oliveira captured the lightweight title by stopping Michael Chandler at UFC 262 on May 15, 2021, and made one successful defense before being stripped for missing weight ahead of UFC 274. He then fell short in a submission loss to Makhachev at UFC 280 on October 22, 2022. Since then, he’s posted wins over Beneil Dariush and a rematch victory over Chandler at UFC 309 on November 16, with a decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan in between.
Topuria has acknowledged questions about his power carrying over to lightweight but insists he feels stronger than ever, even suggesting he’s concerned Oliveira’s chin might not survive a clean shot.
Topuria will likely enter the lightweight title fight aggressively, using the same compact striking and forward pressure that brought him finishes over elite featherweights. He’ll look to close distance quickly, trust his boxing in the pocket, and test Oliveira’s ability to absorb damage early. Topuria’s power, especially in combination, is his biggest weapon, and his confidence at lightweight suggests he won’t hesitate to throw heavy from the opening bell.
Oliveira will aim to capitalize on chaos, using his slick submission game and unpredictable striking to catch Topuria during exchanges. He’s always dangerous off his back and can hurt opponents standing with knees, front kicks, and looping punches. However, his durability and defensive holes—especially against heavy hitters—remain glaring issues, particularly against an undefeated opponent riding knockout momentum.
Pick: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO | FanDuel Sportsbook
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja (29-5) enters his next title defense against Kai Kara-France (25-11, 1 NC), riding a seven-fight winning streak, firmly entrenched at the top of the flyweight division.
After capturing the belt with a grueling five-round decision over Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 on July 8, 2023, “The Cannibal” has successfully defended the title three times, turning back Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and Kai Asakura. His blend of relentless pace, grappling pressure, and finishing instincts continues to separate him from the rest of the field.
Kara-France earns his shot at UFC gold following a resurgent performance, a first-round TKO of Erceg at UFC 305 on August 17. That win reignited his campaign after back-to-back losses to Moreno and Amir Albazi, the latter of which was a controversial split decision at UFC on ESPN 46 on June 3, 2023.
Kara-France’s previous encounter with Pantoja came in a quarterfinal bout on The Ultimate Fighter 24 on July 26, 2016, where he dropped a unanimous decision. Although that bout is officially categorized as an exhibition, the familiarity between the two fighters adds an extra layer to this title clash.
Pantoja will bring relentless pace, chain wrestling, and top pressure into this matchup, looking to wear down Kara-France over five rounds. He’ll use forward movement to close distance and force clinch exchanges, hunting takedowns early and often.
Pantoja’s cardio, grappling control, and ability to maintain pressure late into fights make him a nightmare over 25 minutes, especially against opponents who need space and rhythm to be effective.
Kara-France will try to manage range and punish Pantoja on entries with counters and short combinations. His first-round knockout win over Erceg showcased his power and timing, but he’s struggled against grapplers who can push pace and control positioning. To win this fight, he’ll need to keep it standing and do enough damage early before the wear-and-tear of Pantoja’s wrestling takes over.
Kara-France can land some clean shots in early exchanges, but Pantoja’s pace and pressure will smother any momentum. Over five rounds, Pantoja wins a clear unanimous decision by outworking and outgrappling his opponent.
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja by Points | FanDuel Sportsbook
Pick: The Fight Will Go the Distance | FanDuel Sportsbook
Top UFC Sportsbook Sign-Up Offers
Disclaimer: Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Top UFC DFS Pick’em Sign-Up Offers
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape has evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
