This recurring article series will guide you through the best UFC props for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
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UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Props
Looking for the best UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC) will step in as a short-notice replacement to face Charles Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC) at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The bout remains a five-round main event despite the withdrawal of Rafael Fiziev due to injury.
A former two-division champion under the KSW banner, Gamrot has quietly built one of the most underrated resumes in the UFC lightweight division. The 34-year-old has won eight of his last 11 Octagon appearances, including a unanimous decision victory over Ludovit Klein at UFC on ESPN 68 on May 31.
Gamrot’s recent run includes wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Jalin Turner, Jeremy Stephens, and most notably Arman Tsarukyan, in a bout that showcased his scrambling prowess and endurance in high-level grappling exchanges.
He also holds a previous victory over Fiziev, the very opponent he’s now replacing, adding even more intrigue to his placement in the main event. For Oliveira, it’s a pivotal opportunity to rebound after consecutive losses and reassert himself among the elite at 155 pounds, but Gamrot’s relentless style and top-tier wrestling make him a difficult assignment on short notice.
The former champion Oliveira has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights, a stretch that includes multiple attempts to reclaim the lightweight title. That run began with a first-round submission over Justin Gaethje in 2022, a bout where he was stripped of the belt after missing weight. He later challenged for the vacant strap but was submitted by Islam Makhachev.
More recently, he fell to Arman Tsarukyan and Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 on June 28, the latter defeat coming in another failed bid to regain the crown.
Oliveira brings elite submission skills and lethal finishing instincts to every fight. Even during a turbulent stretch that includes losses to Tsarukyan and Topuria, he’s shown the ability to remain dangerous early, as evidenced by his past first-round finish of Gaethje.
His aggressive style and willingness to engage in wild exchanges make him a threat from the opening bell. On the mat, few in the division can match his creativity or control in scrambles, and his experience across title fights gives him composure under fire.
However, Oliveira’s tendency to absorb damage and falter under sustained grappling pressure has reemerged in recent outings. His recent losses have followed a similar pattern: early success followed by a fade in later rounds, especially when unable to control the pace.
Against opponents with elite wrestling and top control, he’s struggled to regain momentum. That vulnerability, combined with a recent pattern of alternating wins and losses, raises questions about his ability to handle the grind of a suffocating five-rounder against a top-tier wrestler.
Gamrot is a relentless chain wrestler with a deep gas tank and the ability to sustain top control across multiple rounds. He’s built his success on pace, pressure, and a scramble-heavy style that overwhelms opponents over time.
His win over Klein in May continued a run that includes victories over names like Tsarukyan, Turner, and dos Anjos, all of which showcased his ability to adapt to different striking threats and find control through takedowns and mat returns. His durability and composure have allowed him to outlast some of the most dynamic lightweights on the roster.
Where Gamrot can struggle is when he’s unable to establish top control early. He is hittable in exchanges and tends to rely heavily on his wrestling to slow down slick strikers. If he’s unable to impose his wrestling or gets caught in transitions, his offense can stall.
Against an opportunistic finisher like Oliveira, one scramble gone wrong could spell disaster. Still, his pace and consistency give him a strategic edge over five rounds. I see Gamrot winning by unanimous decision after five grueling rounds.
Pick: The fight will go the distance
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot by points
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape have evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
