This recurring article series will guide you through the best UFC props for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
Best Offers in All States
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Props
Looking for the best UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for this event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for December 6!
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) will put his bantamweight title on the line for the fourth time when he headlines UFC 323 in a highly anticipated rematch against No. 2-ranked contender Petr Yan (19-5).
These two previously met at UFC Fight Night 221 in March 2023, where Dvalishvili delivered a dominant performance by outlanding Yan 147-75 in significant strikes and scoring 11 takedowns en route to a unanimous decision sweep on all three judges’ scorecards. That win marked a turning point in Dvalishvili’s campaign toward championship gold.
Since that first clash, the Georgian standout has remained undefeated and captured the undisputed title at UFC 306 on September 14, 2024, by defeating Sean O’Malley via unanimous decision.
He has already logged three successful defenses this calendar year, including a rematch win over O’Malley at UFC 316 on June 7, and a tactical clinic against Cory Sandhagen at UFC 320 on October 4. During this historic run, Dvalishvili has not only amassed a UFC bantamweight record 13-fight winning streak, but also set the all-time UFC record for most career takedowns, now sitting at 117.
Yan, meanwhile, has refused to fade from contention. The former champion has never been finished in his professional career and battled his way back into title contention with notable wins over Yadong Song, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Marcus McGhee. His resilience, championship pedigree, and technical boxing base continue to make him one of the most dangerous threats at 135 pounds.
With the rivalry renewed, the stage is set for a high-stakes rematch between two of the most accomplished bantamweights of this era, one chasing legacy, the other redemption.
Fighter Analysis
Dvalishvili enters the rematch in peak form, riding a record-setting 13-fight winning streak and having successfully defended his UFC bantamweight title three times in 2025 alone. His output and pace are elite; in the first fight against his current challenger, he landed 147 significant strikes and secured 11 takedowns in a lopsided unanimous decision.
Since then, he’s improved his control time and cardio management, evident in the wins over O’Malley (twice) and Sandhagen, each of which showcased his ability to smother elite strikers without fading. His historic total of 117 career takedowns reinforces just how relentless his pressure can be, making him one of the most dominant wrestlers in any weight class.
However, Dvalishvili’s approach can become predictable, relying heavily on chain wrestling and cage pressure without offering much variety on the feet. His striking, though high in volume, lacks knockout power and leaves him vulnerable in extended exchanges.
If an opponent can manage distance and threaten with counters…especially early, he becomes far more beatable. His durability has held up, but his lack of finishing ability could be an issue if caught behind on the scorecards.
Yan, despite dropping the first meeting decisively, remains one of the most technically sound boxers in the bantamweight division. He’s never been finished and as mentioned before boasts wins over Song, McGhee, and former flyweight champion Figueiredo, showing his ability to adapt to diverse styles.
His patience and timing allow him to capitalize when opponents slow down or overextend. Against volume-heavy opponents, he often surges late in fights, something that can be dangerous in a five-round setting.
Yet, Yan has struggled against high-paced wrestlers and smothering top pressure. He was taken down 11 times in their first meeting and spent large portions of that fight defending rather than dictating the pace. While his takedown defense has improved, he still tends to start slow and give away early rounds.
That’s a liability against a grinder who averages double-digit attempts across 25 minutes. If Yan can’t hurt his opponent early or threaten with submission attempts or sweeps off his back, he risks falling behind again.
Dvalishvili is projected to repeat his success in the rematch. Expect him to overwhelm with pressure, rack up control time and takedowns, and outwork his opponent over five rounds en route to another clear decision victory.
Pick: The fight will go the distance
Pick: Merab Dvalishvili by points
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape have evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
