This recurring article series will guide you through the best UFC props for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
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UFC Fight Night: Shanghai
Looking for the best UFC Fight Night: Shanghai props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang
In a light heavyweight showdown, Johnny Walker (21-9, 1 NC) will look to halt a two-fight losing streak when he faces Zhang Mingyang (19-6), who returns to compete on home soil for the second time in his last three outings.
Walker’s most recent appearance ended in a first-round knockout loss to Volkan Oezdemir at UFC on ABC 6 on June 22, 2024, continuing a tough stretch for the unpredictable striker.
Zhang enters the matchup riding momentum after delivering a statement win in his last outing. The rising Chinese contender retired longtime veteran Anthony Smith with a devastating first-round knockout at UFC on ESPN 66 on April 26, showcasing his power and composure under the spotlight.
Walker will enter this matchup looking to reset after consecutive knockout losses, aiming to utilize his unpredictable striking and reach advantage.
Known for wild explosiveness and flashy techniques, he’s capable of ending fights in an instant, but that same volatility often leaves him open to counters. Durability has become a growing concern, especially after a recent first-round KO, and if he can’t manage the chaos he creates, his style tends to unravel quickly.
Zhang brings compact power, timing, and calm under pressure. His recent knockout of a veteran showed he can capitalize on mistakes early, and his composure in the pocket contrasts with his opponent’s erratic approach.
While not as flashy, Zhang is efficient and calculated, with the ability to time big counters when opponents overcommit. He’s most dangerous in early exchanges when his opponents leave openings while trying to overwhelm him.
Pick: Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO | FanDuel
Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling (24-5), the former bantamweight champion, is set for his third appearance at featherweight as he takes on Brian Ortega (16-4, 1 NC). Sterling is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 310 on December 7, following a successful divisional debut where he earned a clear decision win over Calvin Kattar at UFC 300 on April 13, 2024.
The bout marks another opportunity for Sterling to solidify his place in a stacked 145-pound division.
Ortega, who had previously discussed a move to lightweight, remains active at featherweight despite those plans. He enters the contest following a decision loss to Diego Lopes at UFC 306 on September 14.
While Ortega has gone 2-4 over his last six outings, the record is deceptive; two defeats came in title fights, and one ended prematurely due to injury.
Despite the setbacks, Ortega remains one of the most dangerous submission threats in the division and a proven test for any contender at featherweight.
Sterling will bring his signature grappling pressure and high-paced wrestling into this featherweight clash. Despite a setback in his last outing, he remains a disciplined game planner with strong cage control, chain wrestling, and top pressure.
He’ll look to stay outside early, pick his moments to shoot, and grind his opponent down with control and positional awareness. However, his transition to 145 has shown that his physical advantages at bantamweight don’t translate as easily, particularly in striking exchanges.
Ortega thrives in chaotic moments and is most dangerous when fights get scrambly. He’s always a submission threat, especially off his back, and can snatch chokes in transitions few others see coming.
But his recent track record includes multiple decision losses and injuries, and his striking remains hittable over three rounds. He’ll be looking to bait scrambles and exploit mistakes, but he risks being outpaced if he lets his opponent dictate the terms.
Sterling earns a unanimous decision win by maintaining pressure and neutralizing his opponent’s ground game.
Pick: Aljamain Stirling by Points | FanDuel
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape have evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
