This recurring UFC props article series will guide you through the best MMA plays for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Props
Looking for the best UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Gilbert Burns fights Michael Morales in the main event on Saturday. Burns (22-8) is hoping to halt a three-fight losing streak. The former welterweight title challenger has dropped consecutive bouts to former champion Belal Muhammad, new champion Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady. Since his 2021 title fight loss to Kamaru Usman, “Durinho” has gone 3-4, bringing his UFC record to 15-8 overall.
Undefeated Ecuadorian standout Morales (17-0) is riding high into the most pivotal test of his young career. Since earning his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, Morales has rattled off five straight wins in the UFC. His most recent showing was a statement-making, first-round TKO of veteran Neil Magny on August 24 at UFC on ESPN 62—a performance that earned him a post-fight bonus.
Burns remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division. Despite his recent skid, he still brings elite-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, explosive power in his right hand, and a wealth of experience against top-tier opposition. His ability to mix in wrestling — even if his takedowns can be telegraphed — gives him an avenue to slow Morales’ pace and potentially control the fight on the mat.
That said, Burns’ recent three-fight losing streak and wear from consistently facing the best at 170 may be showing in his declining durability and ability to push at a high pace across three rounds.
Morales is a rising force with pristine timing, composed striking, and deceptive physical strength. Undefeated in 17 fights, his confidence is peaking after dismantling a veteran like Magny with ease. He combines long, accurate boxing combinations with solid takedown defense, and his athleticism gives him the edge in scrambles.
While he hasn’t yet faced a BJJ threat like Burns, Morales’ calmness under pressure and sharp fight IQ suggest he can manage danger and create space to land counters.
Morales survives some early grappling pressure from Burns, avoids extended time on the mat, and begins to overwhelm “Durinho” on the feet with volume and accuracy. Burns starts strong but fades under Morales’ pace and youth.
Pick: The fight will not go the distance | FanDuel
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
Rodolfo Bellato (12-2) will face veteran Paul Craig (17-9). Vitor Petrino handed Bellato a knockout loss in his first appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022. Undeterred, the Brazilian bounced back with two regional wins and made the most of a second Contender Series opportunity by finishing Murtaza Talha Ali to earn a UFC contract.
“Trator” impressed in his promotional debut by stopping Ihor Potieria in 2023, then followed it up with a hard-fought majority draw against Jimmy Crute at UFC 312 on February 8.
Paul Craig’s UFC tenure has been a rollercoaster, and recent results suggest a steep decline. After consecutive setbacks at light heavyweight, the Scotsman dropped to middleweight in 2023. Though he opened that chapter with a win over Andre Muniz at UFC Fight Night 224 on July 22, Craig has since lost three straight fights, falling to Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho, and Bo Nickal.
Bellato has proven he can recover from setbacks and develop quickly. Since his initial Contender Series loss in 2022, he’s shown finishing ability and composure under the UFC spotlight.
He brings powerful striking, aggression early in fights, and the strength to impose his grappling. His TKO over Potieria and a draw with the durable Crute show he’s capable of both stopping opponents and going the distance if needed. He’s physically imposing, relentless on top, and has momentum on his side.
His potential weakness lies in defensive gaps that could be exposed by experienced submission specialists or crafty strikers, especially when his aggression leads him into traps.
Craig, meanwhile, is dangerous off his back and owns one of the more deceptive submission games in the division, but his recent run is troubling. Three straight losses—each to dominant, younger fighters—showcase the vulnerability of relying too heavily on jiu-jitsu when athleticism and striking volume aren’t keeping pace.
Craig’s durability is slipping, and his confidence has likely taken a hit after defeats to Allen, Borralho, and Nickal. While he could snatch a limb if Bellato gets careless, he’s struggled to set up those traps lately.
Bellato’s superior form, physicality, and finishing instincts give him the edge. If he avoids diving into Craig’s guard recklessly, his ground-and-pound should eventually overwhelm Craig.
Pick: Over 1.5 rounds | FanDuel
Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
Luana Santos battles Tainara Lisboa. Santos (8-2) opened her UFC career with three consecutive wins before suffering her first promotional loss—a unanimous decision defeat to Casey O’Neill at UFC 305 on August 17.
Lisboa has started her UFC run with back-to-back victories, earning wins over Jessica-Rose Clark and Ravena Oliveira. Riding a five-fight professional win streak, her most recent appearance came at UFC Fight Night 230 on October 14, 2023, where she defeated Oliveira.
Santos brings a solid foundation of athleticism and technical skill, evident in her 3-0 start in the UFC. She’s capable in both striking and grappling exchanges, with good range control and a respectable takedown game.
However, the loss to O’Neill suggests she may struggle to maintain pace and output against relentless pressure fighters. If she can establish top control or get her combinations going early, she can dictate tempo. Her main weakness appears to be dealing with fighters who don’t give her time to settle into a rhythm.
Lisboa enters with momentum and confidence, riding a five-fight win streak and showing growth with each outing. Her wins over Clark and Oliveira demonstrated clean striking and effective control, and she’s shown she can push a steady pace.
Lisboa doesn’t rely heavily on takedowns but uses them selectively to mix up her approach. Her ability to keep pressure, maintain striking efficiency, and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges gives her the edge over opponents who slow down or get stuck looking for openings.
In this matchup, Lisboa’s volume and cage control likely carry her through a competitive but clear decision, outlanding Santos in significant strikes and edging out the close rounds with pace and precision.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds | DraftKings
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UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape has evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
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More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
